January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

The 6z ICON looks a bit more aggressive with the cold air at hour 120 than the 0z at 126.  It might dig a bit better if the run continued.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I hate to tell you, but it will only get worse as you get older.  That is why really gloomy springs have become just about my least favorite thing.  No question that cold clear nights have always been my favorite in that season though with some sharp troughs and brisk cold fronts thrown in.

As for summer...I am old enough that I remember plenty of them that had tons of sunshine with temps far lower than what we have seen this century.  We had a lot more days with low clouds until 11am or so and then sun the rest of the day.  I think the expanded 4CH is entirely the culprit for the recent hot summers.

As an aside.  I have always been fascinated by the year 1949.  Not only did it lead to a great winter, but the year itself just had spectacular weather.  Tons of sunshine, out of season frosts, and just flat out enjoyable weather.  Some places in the western lowlands had frost on the 4th of July and then again on September 12th, with a highly unusual number of lows in the 30s (and some frost) in May and June.  Then of course the record setting low temps in mid October that year.  Just amazing!

I definitely feel that pining more and more every year, so I believe it! But I try to remain content even as the dark draws on, usually by reminding myself of how badly I miss this exact kind of weather during the doldrums of August. And there are reasonable ways to introduce more sunlight into your winter life, namely getting out more during the day (one thing I've sorely neglected this season!)

[Meatyorologist]

6 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

And it's not as if they don't exist anymore. Just offshore there's this...

As an addendum, I don't think I've ever seen a stretch of weather so stormy for that section of the Pacific than the last decade or so. There have been some true tempests out there, many of which possessing strength rivaling that of the Columbus Day Storm.

[Dave]

Strangely, it is clear out at the moment which is rare this time of the year unless it is super cold out. I'm sure it will last for the rest of the night.

 

[Meatyorologist]

The 06z GFS is especially moist for California, although not so great for us

[Dave]

I have frogs. They are producing some major ribbits.

[Everleigh]

We hit 64.6* in Yelm yesterday.   Had the window open all night, and the frogs were out there singing the songs of their people. 

I'd like one more good snow event, then I am ready to accept Spring. 

[TT-SEA]

06Z EPS keeps the northern ULL way north next weekend... looks like the 06Z GFS did the same thing.   Still going to cool down to highs in the 40s again though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The majority of models indicate El Niño will persist through MarchMay 2024 and then transition to ENSO-neutral during April-June 2024.  After a brief period of ENSOneutral conditions, most models indicate a transition to La Niña around July-September 2024. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The majority of models indicate El Niño will persist through MarchMay 2024 and then transition to ENSO-neutral during April-June 2024.  After a brief period of ENSOneutral conditions, most models indicate a transition to La Niña around July-September 2024. 

I bet the transition is a little slower and we end up around neutral next winter.   That is just from piecing together stuff from Phil.   I know nothing else. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Spectacular sunrise in progress.

[MossMan]

Good July morning! Currently 55.2 degrees. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon appears rock solid this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon appears rock solid this morning. 

Be more specific... how much snow for Seattle and Portland and how many feet of snow for the Cascades?   

[Phishy Wx]

seasonally cool interludes, otherwise it's over dudes.  put a fork in her

[snow_wizard]

The ICON gives us a potential path to still pull this thing off.  The trough digs down better than the 0z, but it's just further east.  We had some wiggle room on that.

Also....boy did I luck out this morning!  45 here while it's freeking 60 degrees just up the road.  Yikes!

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 hours ago, Dave said:

I have frogs. They are producing some major ribbits.

If it gets cold they should hibernate again. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The majority of models indicate El Niño will persist through MarchMay 2024 and then transition to ENSO-neutral during April-June 2024.  After a brief period of ENSOneutral conditions, most models indicate a transition to La Niña around July-September 2024. 

I'm betting it's faster based on the subsurface profile.  Will be fun to watch.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

If it gets cold they should hibernate again. 

Up here the ponds were frozen over just a week ago.  Not sure if there have been any frog stirrings in this area or not yet.

[T-Town]

Fog up and down the Narrows this morning. Hard to capture on a phone camera. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Up here the ponds were frozen over just a week ago.  Not sure if there have been any frog stirrings in this area or not yet.

Frogs were making noise here last night.

[MossMan]

Temp dropped 3 degrees in about 10min. Down to 52. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is a no show with the ULL... very different than its 00Z run.    Might actually have sunny, dry weekend if these trends continue.    Much cooler though with high temps probably in the upper 40s to around 50.   

12Z GEM looks similar to the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately a tremendous step back on the models this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unfortunately a tremendous step back on the models this morning. 

Appears that we are going into a much drier period up here while CA gets all the action.     Makes sense during the second half of a Nino winter. 

 

[snow_wizard]

I have to say things are looking pretty grim for this possible cold snap at this point.  Might be nothing more than some frosty nights.  Better than nothing I guess.

Still time for things to change given the complexity of the situation.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Up here the ponds were frozen over just a week ago.  Not sure if there have been any frog stirrings in this area or not yet.

I had frogs croaking last night for the first time in 18 years in January or before March really.  Disgusting for this to happen already.  

[snow_wizard]

If this flops it's kind of a bummer.  This is our MJO 7 window to score.  Our last shot will probably be the final strat warming which could happen in early March or so.  We are due for a big March so who knows.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I had frogs croaking last night for the first time in 18 years in January or before March really.  Disgusting for this to happen already.  

Especially after that freeze.  What a strange month this has been.  Just all over the place.

I would have to think Jan 2010 must have had frogs sooner than this.  That month was an endless torch.

[ShawniganLake]

Could be looking at some frost later this week.

 I was away for a few days.  Came home to a leaking roof and water in the house.  I’m hopeful it’s just the skylight and not the roof itself.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I  Love hearing the frogs from the large pond behind my house but not in winter. They are confused from the warmth. They will be surprised when they get frozen again in less than a week.                            

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I  Love hearing the frogs from the large pond behind my house but not in winter. They are confused from the warmth. They will be surprised when they get frozen again in less than a week.                            

Pretty sure that is just how it works naturally... they make noise when its warm and go back down when it gets cold and the cycle keeps repeating during the spring.    I doubt they will be confused.    

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I can only find a few station below or at 32 in Washington, this has to be a record for Jan. Paradise is a Rediculous 51 degrees and Camp Muir is 28 at 10k feet. Looks like freezing level is 9k in central cascades. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty sure that is just how it works naturally... they make noise when its warm and go back down when it gets cold and the cycle keeps repeating during the spring.    I doubt they will be confused.    

Well, they have never done this in winter so it is a new experience for them when they are normally dormant. I can see how they could be confused on which season it actually is.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty sure that is just how it works naturally... they make noise when its warm and go back down when it gets cold and the cycle keeps repeating during the spring.    I doubt they will be confused.    

I was walking to my shop yesterday and the noise stopped me in my tracks lol. Just odd to hear it in the middle of winter, I also had small flies flying around my porch light like you see on a summer evening. strange stuff.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Well, they have never done this in winter so it is a new experience for them when they are normally dormant. I can see how they could be confused on which season it actually is.

I am certain they were making noise in the late winter in 2015 and 2016 as well.    February can often be an early spring month here... just no so much lately.     I wouldn't worry too much about the frogs... they obviously survived the arctic blast.   I doubt 50s in late January is that unusual or harmful to them.  

[Dave]

The fog found its home and my next door neighbor brought in a windmill for unknown reasons. 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

If spring comes early so be it. I just hope it comes with frequent rain. My pond looks so much better this year than last. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Could be looking at some frost later this week.

 I was away for a few days.  Came home to a leaking roof and water in the house.  I’m hopeful it’s just the skylight and not the roof itself.  

Ugh I’m sorry to hear that!

[the_convergence_zone]

Low of 54 at the house on this Julyuary morning. I’m in San Diego where it was 48 this morning.