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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I want everyone to score. I want winter to be BACK everywhere. Let's do this. 

Hear hear. 🍻 

Heck I even want Randy to score despite the fact he wants me miserable and depressed every winter. Haha

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is he doing OK? 

I just sent him a message. Last I heard last night he was hanging in there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF only shows about 35 at SEA today and around 40 tomorrow.   

The freezing rain just isn't going to happen.

I bet ya we can't find one example of a Seattle ice event with a 40 degree high that day but many snow and plain rain examples. Unless between 4pm and 6pm there is enough clearing to dump temps back down to 31 or 32.  One thing is clear if this was coming in at noon freezing rain would be impossible except for foothill valleys.

 

 

.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The freezing rain just isn't going to happen.

I bet ya we can't find one example of a Seattle ice event with a 40 degree high that day but many snow and plain rain examples. Unless between 4pm and 6pm there is enough clearing to dump temps back down to 31 or 32.  One thing is clear if this was coming in at noon freezing rain would be impossible except for foothill valleys.

 

 

.

Interestingly the ECMWF is colder on Thursday than on Wednesday. 

ecmwf-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-5320000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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PDX up to 28, but my guess is they don't move much more than that as east winds continue to increase. Eugene is still socked in the clouds and is stuck at 24, probably another sub-freezing high for Tiger. Surprising to see temps still at freezing or below on the coast all the way south to Florence. Very chilly low level airmass. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It was really cool, I am up around 650ft so sometimes we get odd winds and it's  calm in other places out here. It was stronger wind than I had when the Frazer winds were going at the peak,  whatever it was it was impressive. Bremerton airport did go from dead calm to 15 right around the same time and they are 6 miles or so east of me.

Interesting. How close are you to higher terrain and in what direction is it in? Curious to figure out what caused it.

Last week we had a rare occurrence of strong SE winds (never blows hard from that direction). It was only 45-50mph but it took down at least 10X as many trees as the 65-70mph winds last April.

I knew our trees weren’t acclimated to SE winds, but dang I had no idea it would be that bad. First prolonged power outage here since the 2012 derecho..I felt like I’d teleported to @MossMan’s neighborhood. :lol:

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18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hear hear. 🍻 

Heck I even want Randy to score despite the fact he wants me miserable and depressed every winter. Haha

That includes everyone to his south too. The ultimate snow mizer on this forum.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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7 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

I'm trying to figure out which indicators I should be watching tomorrow out here in North Bend to indicate rain or freezing rain. I'm thinking watching temps on Snoqualmie Pass and east, along with wind directions? Currently warmed up to 25°F at home. 

I've really enjoyed this event, it's been a memorable one.

  • Windstorm last Tuesday, multiple power outages.
  • Couple inches of snow Thursday evening, hasn't melted.
  • Lowest temp I've recorded at my house, 9.1°F.
  • Blowing snow and frigid temps on Saturday. The lake hasn't frozen over completely still because of the winds. 
  • Got down to -8°F while in Roslyn, fantastic town to walk around in those temps.
  • Kids got to make and hang their ice ornaments, and generally enjoy the cold temps.

419163508_10161102844042488_6560602468762677322_n.thumb.jpg.b68251f713685b52af1c71d7f2fb1918.jpg

419126789_10161102843532488_6787620440966583105_n.thumb.jpg.3a1dade4552d377404643f71d0534de8.jpg

One the freezing rain topic... in my 21 years here the only freezing rain events I remember started with temps in the teens or low 20s and it won't be even close to that tomorrow evening.  

The pass will definitely keep us cooler a little longer so freezing rain will definitely happen... but I think the outflow will only be able to keep us around 30 and not much colder and then the ECMWF shows it going above freezing even out here by late morning on Wednesday.   Also... the offshore flow will limit precip amounts out here on Tuesday night.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The freezing rain just isn't going to happen.

I bet ya we can't find one example of a Seattle ice event with a 40 degree high that day but many snow and plain rain examples. Unless between 4pm and 6pm there is enough clearing to dump temps back down to 31 or 32.  One thing is clear if this was coming in at noon freezing rain would be impossible except for foothill valleys.

 

 

.

I wouldn’t be so sure. Highs will be in the upper 30’s Tuesday afternoon but DP’s are really low. Gonna be some significant evaporational cooling when precip gets here. Messy situation.

 

IMG_0253.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I wouldn’t be so sure. Highs will be in the upper 30’s Tuesday afternoon but DP’s are really low. Gonna be some significant evaporational cooling when precip gets here. Messy situation.

 

IMG_0253.png

And models tend to underestimate evaporative cooling 

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20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's a beautiful day out right now, good day to take this beast out for a cruise.

20240115_111810.jpg

Niceeee.

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting. How close are you to higher terrain and in what direction is it in? Curious to figure out what caused it.

Last week we had a rare occurrence of strong SE winds (never blows hard from that direction). It was only 45-50mph but it took down at least 10X as many trees as the 65-70mph winds last April.

I knew our trees weren’t acclimated to SE winds, but dang I had no idea it would be that bad. First prolonged power outage here since the 2012 derecho..I felt like I’d teleported to @MossMan’s neighborhood. :lol:

1800 ft mountain ne of Me 1 mile.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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15 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I wouldn’t be so sure. Highs will be in the upper 30’s Tuesday afternoon but DP’s are really low. Gonna be some significant evaporational cooling when precip gets here. Messy situation.

 

IMG_0253.png

I wondered about that! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

I’ve never heard anyone here actively root against anyone else getting snow. What I do see a lot is people root hard for a setup that favors their location which inevitably then doesn’t favor others. Big difference. 

Definitely jealousy. But I’d rather someone in the PNW get it than nobody 

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1 hour ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Ummm has Cliff lost it? Freezing rain happens BECAUSE of warm air aloft and colder air trapped at the surface. Am I missing something here?image.thumb.png.a7b5f6572c829a9998511fc52c7e2e14.png

Feom my understanding, freezing rain is a dance between the layers, right?

* Deep layer of warm upper air + shallow layer of cold lower air = rain (will scour out cold layer quickly)

*Deep layer of warm upper air + shallow layer of frigid lower air = freezing rain

*Shallow layer of really warm upper air + shallow layer of cold lower air = rain (scoured out)

 

And all sorts of other combos. So, I'm guessing that our cold, lower level is not cold enough to overcome the warmth and/or depth of the warm upper levels but it's easier to just say it's too warm than to explain the intricacies. 

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3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Definitely jealousy. But I’d rather someone in the PNW get it than nobody 

Yeah I’d rather see the west get snow over the east…Or Texas 🤮

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It has been very cold here in Sandy. It got down to 12 here during the storm, maybe colder later but I am not sure. We lost power for two days. It was very cold in the house, probably in the law forties. We have a gas stove but it wasn't us to the challenge. I finally broke down and got a small generator which is probably a good idea since we live near all these trees.It was a massive tree that took out the power.  Sunny here today but strong winds. I am not looking forward to this ice storm. I probably will lose power again.

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One the freezing rain topic... in my 21 years here the only freezing rain events I remember started with temps in the teens or low 20s and it won't be even close to that tomorrow evening.  

The pass will definitely keep us cooler a little longer so freezing rain will definitely happen... but I think the outflow will only be able to keep us around 30 and not much colder and then the ECMWF shows it going above freezing even out here by late morning on Wednesday.   Also... the offshore flow will limit precip amounts out here on Tuesday night.  

ZR can also be self-limiting due to latent heat release from freezing. Unless there’s a source of low level cold advection it’s hard to keep ZR going for long.

The big ice storms out here in the 1990s had strong high pressure to the NE advecting in cold/dry air, continuously reinforcing CAD wedge.

Meanwhile, the “in-situ” CAD wedges lacking that high to the NE don’t maintain ZR long unless it’s **very** cold at the surface. 2014 and 1994 were such cases, but it’s rare.

Not 100% sure what the situation is up there, but I assume there’s some degree of low level cold bleed from terrain?

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SEA up to 35 on the hour.   Already running warmer than the ECMWF and EPS showed for today with a couple hours of warming left.   Not sure it means anything for tomorrow night... just an observation. 

EPS shows 34 for the high today.

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-5320000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I’ve never heard anyone here actively root against anyone else getting snow. What I do see a lot is people root hard for a setup that favors their location which inevitably then doesn’t favor others. Big difference. 

Yes, much less of that on this forum vs AmWx forums.

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It's been my experience that people here really pay little attention to what happens in the east particularly their weather. Concerning the storm tomorrow, I have seen the cold transition without an ice storm maybe 5% of the time here. The winds are ripping here and will only increase tomorrow. The ground is frozen, it's not going to moderate any other way unless of course the tooth fairy comes and waves her magic wand.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

ZR can also be self-limiting due to latent heat release from freezing. Unless there’s a source of low level cold advection it’s hard to keep ZR going for long.

The big ice storms out here in the 1990s had strong high pressure to the NE advecting in cold/dry air, continuously reinforcing CAD wedge.

Meanwhile, the “in-situ” CAD wedges lacking that high to the NE don’t maintain ZR long unless it’s **very** cold at the surface. 2014 and 1994 were such cases, but it’s rare.

Not 100% sure what the situation is up there, but I assume there’s some degree of low level cold bleed from terrain?

Absolutely related to cold air coming in through the passes and the gorge down in Portland.   What is different this time compared to our big ice events that I remember is that the low level cold is moderating significantly before the event starts today and tomorrow.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS mean and control run look like the ECMWF.   

@ShawniganLake and @Rubus Leucodermis going to get buried!  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-or_wa-total_snow_10to1-5622400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-or_wa-total_snow_10to1-5622400.png

Looks okay for me too

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 16" (5 events)

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20 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve never understood the whole rooting against others getting snow thing. You see that *a lot* from New England people on AmWx, and it’s quite silly. Esp as they already have one of the best snow climates in the US.

or being possessive about snow.  no one owns snow.  it's silly and childish 

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