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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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43 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I know this is a washington-heavy forum but does anyone have thoughts on situation in Portland and the return of offshore Thursday. Most forecasts are calling for a cold rain with temps in the mid to high 30s. GFS continues to show temps below freezing and more ice accumulation thursday afternoon/night. It looks reasonably borderline. Temps have been slower to warm this morning. my concern is that if we only make it to the mid 30s today, it’s not going to take very much additional cold air to create problems. But forecasters still seem confident portland makes it into 40s today. Would love any input. Sitting at 28 right now. 

I think a lot of the Oregon members are without power! Once the warm air makes it, temps will definitely rise rapidly. The CRB is supposed to moderate today/tomorrow, so even with east winds it probably won’t be enough to freeze PDX again. That said, GFS has us pretty borderline through the weekend, so it could go on a lot longer than people expect 🤷🏼‍♀️

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Location 850’ NW Hills in Portland

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people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

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6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

In a few hours we will probably see the euro be correct. Gfs has snow starting for me around 1 pm RGEm around 11am

WOW newly initialized models are actually still showing snowfall south of Whatcom? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

But it shows what we want to happen…

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

Because it tells them what they want to hear. Confirmation bias.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

But it shows what we want to happen…

Yeah the Euro is the Rich Marriott/Cliff Mass of models. Too often it’s the Debbie Downer model while the other models have more of the MossMan enthusiasm. 

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

people hug the GFS and GEFS around here like its Gospel and it perplexes that F out of me.  People post all the time the verification rates and the GFS is often 4th or 5th to the Euro, GEM and sometimes UKMET and ICON

Us that have been doing this a long time have seen the euro be wrong as well with these events. There is the answer. Sometimes the gfs has a better handle on these cold waves, sometimes it don't. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, ajreich said:

Still at 26 and now up to half inch of ice 😬 Really not sure how all this gonna melt off today as the NWS thinks. The warm air just isn’t coming north as modeled at all. At 600’ we should be mixing out before the valley and yet we’re still 3-4 degrees colder. 

Looks to be the inner SW side is warming more quickly than your location. Bridlemile/Raleigh Hills/Sylvan stations all near or slightly above freezing while Arlington Heights/Forest Park to North still much colder along with entire east side.

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Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’

”All models are wrong, some are useful.”

-G. Box

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

For me the event was interesting and memorable for the extreme cold, but without snow not really all that enjoyable. 

It will be a newer and very slightly cooler version of December 2009 for me…Barely memorable except for the heartache portion of it. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Looks to be the inner SW side is warming more quickly than your location. Bridlemile/Raleigh Hills/Sylvan stations all near or slightly above freezing while Arlington Heights/Forest Park to North still much colder along with entire east side.

Yeah, you’re right. I noticed the south facing hills are about 4-5 degrees warmer than us on the north side. Interesting dynamics!

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Location 850’ NW Hills in Portland

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This has been an impactful series of days. We have had many trees come down but not like Eugene/Springfield area. Ice does so much damage. The tree that took out our power must have been 60-70 years old. What a waste. I haven't gone on the trail behind my house because it is too dangerous, but I am sure a lot of trees came down. Losing power at the height of the storm was miserable, I have never been so cold. Snow is beautiful but ice is truly hellish, I hate ice but it is reality here near the mouth of the gorge.

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2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

 

Every model except euro and probably still hrrr.

3959BE10-D374-4A33-9264-8C915E8B2B20.png

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Interesting. I figured all would have swung to camp downer. Guess we will know if a few hours. I will let you know if I see another than typical boring liquid falling from the sky.

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It will be a newer and very slightly cooler version of December 2009 for me…Barely memorable except for the heartache portion of it. 

I respect it for how cold it was during the day but it wasn't an event. A event effects your day to day regular activities this did not. It was an impressive cold wave and nothing more for 90% of the lowlands of western Washington.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Interesting. I figured all would have swung to camp downer. Guess we will know if a few hours. I will let you know if I see another than typical boring liquid falling from the sky.

Icon and regular gem look more like euro. Still some snow south 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Us that have been doing this a long time have seen the euro be wrong as well with these events. There is the answer. Sometimes the gfs has a better handle on these cold waves, sometimes it don't. 

I've been monitoring these things for close to 30 years, since college on the east coast in the mid 90s.  When model output came over dot matrix reports on a printer.  I get it, but I also get factual verification rates over time and err on statistical percentages over occasional busts

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1 hour ago, GoldenEars said:

Looks close to 3 inches so far. I've got bronchitis so today seemed like a good day to call in to work and watch the snow.

20240117_062226.jpg

Good call. That looks magnificent!

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Why don't we wait till today is over first to say which model was right about today? Makes sense..

Won't have to wait long.  All the models show the precip moving rapidly east by noon or 1 and mostly gone by mid afternoon. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah the Euro is the Rich Marriott/Cliff Mass of models. Too often it’s the Debbie Downer models while the other models have more of the MossMan enthusiasm. 

forecasting with heart over head will usually lead to disappointment

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My kids school (part of Mt. Vernon/Burlington schools) just went from 2hrs late to closed. Wonder if the snow line dropped back down to that area? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My kids school (part of Mt. Vernon/Burlington schools) just went from 2hrs late to closed. Wonder if the snow line dropped back down to that area? 

A mixture of rain and sleet here as the precipitation picks back up. Burlington is closed partly for the roads which probably won’t improve but also partly because a lot of teachers live up in Whatcom county and they’re probably not making it down here today.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 5.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 0.5" 2/26, Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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East wind which was blowing all night here has totally died now... the flow appears to be shifting from E to SE right now and eventually SW here for a couple hours around noon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

South Sound folks ☹️

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Snohomish County is with you this time.

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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