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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I love how cold the tap water is. Mine is 43.2 just checked it. Normally about 55 in summer 

We were noticing the same this week... its just ice cold right out of the faucet.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Major temp drop along the lower foothills, but we are still in the warm layer. One map is highs the other is current temps. 

92A9BD3F-42E1-4E05-991A-CACD338252BC.png

DF3537FA-79E7-4BDF-8E93-136CB99C1DB7.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Manual gauge melted out. 4.45” of precip since last Friday. 10.74” on the month. Average for January is about 10.5” so we will have our second straight wet month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nah... needed to work and couldn't count on power or internet at home so me and daughter went to hotel in Bellevue.    My wife is in MN this week taking care of her dad... she traded an ice storm for even colder temps! 

Probably smart, it was freezing rain and quite windy last I looked outside. Beautiful though. North Bend roads still a mess, and even windier down there. 
 

IMG_7748.thumb.jpeg.0867560fc9dce4f7b8fcfe5daf4055fb.jpeg

 

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9 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Probably smart, it was freezing rain and quite windy last I looked outside. Beautiful though. North Bend roads still a mess, and even windier down there. 
 

IMG_7748.thumb.jpeg.0867560fc9dce4f7b8fcfe5daf4055fb.jpeg

 

Precip looked fairly light all day which had to help.   Are the trees in worse shape than this morning?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, Darrington Troll said:

So who has eyes on the next system we are tracking? 

Heard there could be an AR in a week or so? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

32.6, this is crazy! Temps all over the kitsap peninsula have dropped to around 34.

Been stuck at 34.1 here for hours now. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Not really but they’re not better either. 30°F.

That's good... might have dodged a bullet today.    ECMWF shows temps in the foothills rising to around 40 by morning and in the mid 40s tomorrow afternoon and maybe 50 in North Bend by Saturday.   That will take the weight off all the trees.  I was hearing those gunshot type sounds last night of branches breaking and trees falling in the woods behind the house.  A sound that was even more crazy in the 2012 ice storm... it was constant.   Sort of eerie in the the calm quiet of the middle of the night when there was no power.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

We have been have major fluctuations with our power. In the past hour our power has gone off and on 10 times. I was outside and a big chunk of ice fell off the fir tree. My sister took the picture. This is what we have been dealing with all day today. If you like, you can pin this so everyone can see it 🌧🥶

Resized_20240118_181845_1705631148412.jpeg

Feel ya buddy, power restored this afternoon after 5+ days and staying with two different family members - headed back after we slowly warmed the house up with our Nest app. Turned the water back on, cleared out the fridge. Lost power again for a solid 35 mins after several flickers. Back now but fully expect more (hopefully shorter) breaks. It’s like a slow form of torture. ‘Will it stay on this time?’

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Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’

”All models are wrong, some are useful.”

-G. Box

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Anyone have a Generac or similar standby system that can attest to its awesomeness? Definitely going to be prepared for arctic blast 24-25 and beyond. We’ve also been getting more outages in the summer during heat waves last few years. Lost all confidence in the grid down here!

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Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’

”All models are wrong, some are useful.”

-G. Box

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6 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Anyone have a Generac or similar standby system that can attest to its awesomeness? Definitely going to be prepared for arctic blast 24-25 and beyond. We’ve also been getting more outages in the summer during heat waves last few years. Lost all confidence in the grid down here!

I don’t but my work does, works great! Has an auto transfer switch so you don’t have to do anything. If we had a spare $10 or $15k (not sure exactly what they cost) I would totally do it, I would have it rigged to run off our big house propane tank. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Saw this pic online today from another cold blast... this was Pine Lake in Sammamish in Feb 1989.   Pretty impressive to have that level of trust in the ice on a lake in western WA.

419984174_395771142815164_5190030690791176078_n.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I love how cold the tap water is. Mine is 43.2 just checked it. Normally about 55 in summer 

I call it "Tapwater Without Ice Season" and celebrate its arrival every year.

And since we're talking about tapwater, peep the blue signs, cuz every place needs to be known for something.

Sumas.2.jpg

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2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Here's a higher resolution version: Seasonal Snowfall

snowfall_season_d.2024011812.0_600_600._13369_557._12503_1423_dem.shading_im.m.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.png.7cbf31d82e97fe19bc119d80add16c13.png

And specifically for the Puget Sound

snowfall_season_d.2024011812.0_600_600._13393_694._12970_1117_dem.shading_im.m.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.png.800cf94f0b4de683b9cb3fa3994c955b.png

legend_snowfall_season_d_dem_152_522_0_0_0_0_0_0.png.3b230a3045587e34ea4fff08966209e1.png

Holy cow it's pretty dead on. My town is in 12-24 range but just about 10 miles to my west it is 6-12. Pretty accurate! I'm at 12.7 as of my last read. If I can get another 1.2 inches or so this season at some point, I'll pass my total for last year. 2021 I was probably in the 21-25 inch range (but the December month was mostly missing).

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Saw this pic online today from another cold blast... this was Pine Lake in Sammamish in Feb 1989.   Pretty impressive to have that level of trust in the ice on a lake in western WA.

419984174_395771142815164_5190030690791176078_n.jpg

My friend and I rode our bikes across Lake Goodwin that month! We did fine, but the guy that tried to drive his Suzuki Samurai on it did not. 
 

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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35 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

All you keyboard warriors must be afraid to say something on Cliff's blog hmmmmm................ he is wrong, you guys should go let him have it!!

Lol. It's his blog. He can delete comments he doesn't like. (Or decline to approve them.) I have seen comments deleted before. 

 

He know HIS stuff. The thing I don't like is his attitude that he knows more than everyone else including other mets. Maybe he often does know more, but he's not an expert in all meteorological specialties, let alone climatology. He's human and can be wrong. I'd respect him a lot more if he admitted that occasionally. It's hard to take an expert seriously when they present themselves as infallible.

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4 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Lol. It's his blog. He can delete comments he doesn't like. (Or decline to approve them.) I have seen comments deleted before. 

He know HIS stuff. The thing I don't like is his attitude that he knows more than everyone else including other mets. Maybe he often does know more, but he's not an expert in all meteorological specialties, let alone climatology. He's human and can be wrong. I'd respect him a lot more if he admitted that occasionally. It's hard to take an expert seriously when they present themselves as infallible.

Did he actually yell at you?

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A forum for the end of the world.

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22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My friend and I rode our bikes across Lake Goodwin that month! We did fine, but the guy that tried to drive his Suzuki Samurai on it did not. 
 

I drove my truck on a lake up by my cabin.  Ice was 18 inches thick. Totally safe.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Did he actually yell at you?

Many years ago, when I was a dumb, naive college student, yes. It was over email. I was not his student. I was not an Atmospheric Sciences major. I did take ATMS 101, but not from him. I probably deserved to be corrected for my ignorant email (nothing offensive, was asking a question actually), but did not deserve his response. 

 

Side note: He was not the only prof I emailed with my question, but the others simply ignored my dumb question. 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Hope this helps re: freezing rain. Cliff Mass is either misinformed or making stuff up.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/210/

“The rain drops could be well above freezing before striking a freezing surface. The warmth of the rain drops could even be enough to warm the temperature above freezing and end the freezing rain event. The depth and maximum warmth of the elevated warm layer aloft and the depth and minimum chill of the low level PBL determine the temperature of a rain drop just before it strikes the surface. A warm and deep EWL and a shallow layer of lower PBL temperatures below freezing will allow raindrops to fall that may be well above freezing. These "warm" raindrops will take much longer to freeze than the "supercooled" raindrops. The warm raindrops must be both cooled to the freezing point and crystallized to ice.”

To be somewhat fair to Cliff. The rain that was too warm to freeze instantly never froze at all at my locale in Bothell except a few areas.

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

No way!!!! Best little 4x4 ever built.  My geo tracker I built will just about go anywhere in the snow.  

Great offroader. Not so great if you had to make a sudden change of direction at highway speeds.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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7 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Many years ago, when I was a dumb, naive college student, yes. It was over email. I was not his student. I was not an Atmospheric Sciences major. I did take ATMS 101, but not from him. I probably deserved to be corrected for my ignorant email (nothing offensive, was asking a question actually), but did not deserve his response. 

 

Side note: He was not the only prof I emailed with my question, but the others simply ignored my dumb question. 

Should probably save this response for the next time someone asks 

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