January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[ShawniganLake]

Freezing rain and ice pellets overnight here. Trees are pretty heavy this morning with that falling on the snow. A few power flickers. 
 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, WOW, WWWWWOOOOWWWW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Freezing rain and ice pellets overnight here. Trees are pretty heavy this morning with that falling on the snow. A few power flickers. 
 

Beautiful winter scene. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, WOW, WWWWWOOOOWWWW

Cliff Mass would say that we are not projected to go into a La Nina, but the water everywhere else in the world is getting warmer, making the ENSO waters *seem* cooler.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Cliff Mass would say that we are not projected to go into a La Nina, but the water everywhere else in the world is getting warmer, making the ENSO waters *seem* cooler.

And the water will be too warm for any snow to stick to it. 

[the_convergence_zone]

59 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Odd temp behavior out here. The neighbors sensors read the same, so I don’t think mine is broken.

Here’s my Seattle one. No snow on the round and only rain over this time period. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The end of the GFS was fantastic. What a wild ride. 

[LowerGarfield]

The ice here does not seem super noticable so I think we might be in the clear. Saw this on FB.

[bainbridgekid]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, WOW, WWWWWOOOOWWWW

I'm sure it'll be reasonably accurate and all signs point to a Nina coming, but I've never understand how every single ensemble can immediately fall off a cliff from where it's currently headed. That isn't usually how things work and from what I've seen it's looked like that for several weeks now without yet dropping.

[LowerGarfield]

39 minutes ago, The Blob said:

33 here, I've sent the husband out on a coffee mission to see how the roads are. I'll likely stay home from work another night. Not the vacation I was wanting to take.

What are you drinking today? Thank your hubs for his sacrifice.  Black coffee or loose leaf tea is my preferred drink.

[bainbridgekid]

14 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Cliff Mass would say that we are not projected to go into a La Nina, but the water everywhere else in the world is getting warmer, making the ENSO waters *seem* cooler.

Pavement near the ocean is too warm for a Nina.

[LowerGarfield]

53 minutes ago, MossMan said:

People are losing their minds on the community pages this morning because Stanwood SD is 2hrs late…These are people in town and at sea level that have nothing on the ground or the roads. They forget that it’s a different world on the other side of I-5 which is also Stanwood SD. This might not look bad but it’s still icy, not sure I remember a time where we have been above freezing for almost 24hrs now and there was still ice on the roads, even where it’s bare asphalt in this picture which I just took on the way to work. 
 

Side note…It’s coming…Pothole city is coming!! 

yes and the district also covers Camano Island, Silvana, Warm Beach plus Bryant (?) and areas close to yours. They have a wide range of topography and conditions. Even just having Camano on there usually creates a lot of the issues.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The end of the GFS was fantastic. What a wild ride. 

Sure hope we can prove Phil wrong for a second time this season!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

Sure hope we can prove Phil wrong for a second time this season!! 

We'll see. I'd love to extrapolate that pattern out a couple days longer. Still see some signs of GOA ridging trying to form as we get into February. 

[BLI snowman]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, WOW, WWWWWOOOOWWWW

Godzilla Nina.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think it's the 30 year average. 30+ years of January torching has caught up. 

December and February are now the main acts. January is usually the intermission.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

December and February are now the main acts. January is usually the intermission.

Stands to reason this year will be a complete flip of that. December and February will be the main acts of torching, with a blessed week of reprieve in the middle. 

[iFred]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, WOW, WWWWWOOOOWWWW

Latest members looking extreme. Maybe we can get a -4 or -5 out of this.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What is the strongest nina we had and when? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Stands to reason this year will be a complete flip of that. December and February will be the main acts of torching, with a blessed week of reprieve in the middle. 

If this is true it is probably better than we could have ever even hoped for. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is the strongest nina we had and when? 

Looking at the numbers since 1950 it appears it was 1973-74 with a peak ONI of -2.0C. My guess is there is no way the Nina will be as strong as the CFS is currently forecasting. Other very strong Ninas were 1954-55  1988-89, and 1999-00. 2007-8 and 2010-11 were pretty strong too. 

Edited January 19 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the numbers since 1950 it appears it was 1973-74 with a peak ONI of -2.0C. My guess is there is no way the Nina will be as strong as the CFS is currently forecasting. Other very strong Ninas were 1954-55  1988-89, and 1999-00. 2007-8 and 2010-11 were pretty strong too. 

I do not know much about it, lets say we hit -2.5 what should we expect? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I spent 3 hrs last night reading through the Feb 2019 thread. Wow i really enjoyed re living that event. Looking back that was incredible to see it snow 25 inches here in about 30 hrs. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

This is PGE's outage map. As you can tell, there is a lot of people without power I just did the East side of Portland, there is still more further West

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I do not know much about it, lets say we hit -2.5 what should we expect? 

Most strong Ninas have something good. 1999-2000 was kind of a dud though. It was a 2nd year Nina, so not sure it would be a great analog. 

If we really get into moderate/strong territory I would look at years like 1973-74, 2010-11, 1988-89 as a pretty solid analog pool. I think Phil has already mentioned 73-74 and 88-89. Structurally 2010-11 might not be a great analog, but it did follow a strong Nino. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As in any Nina we can expect a more active winter, consolidated northern jet, and elevated chance of above average Cascade snow fall. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I spent 3 hrs last night reading through the Feb 2019 thread. Wow i really enjoyed re living that event. Looking back that was incredible to see it snow 25 inches here in about 30 hrs. 

Wish I was around to share my experience from that event. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is the strongest nina we had and when? 

1889-90, 1973-74, and 1988-89 are probably the three strongest. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So when we go from a strong nino to a strong nina we can expect good stuff?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

1889-90, 1973-74, and 1988-89 are probably the three strongest. 

I think 73-74 was snowy around the sound that year my Mom said.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Wish I was around to share my experience from that event. 

It was insane, i got nuked over here . Original nws forecast was 1-3 advisory and i ended up with 15 that day.

Even got 4 thunder snow strikes.

Edited January 19 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I think 73-74 was snowy around the sound that year my Mom said.

Jim talks about a big snow event that winter. Down south the January blast was DRY, but extremely cold. That winter was NOT dry though. At least not down here. Silver Falls recorded over 62" of precip in the Nov, Dec, Jan period. 

[Blizzard777]

11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I love how that pic Tim posted is B&W to make it seem like it was so long ago.  Pretty much everything was color many years before that!

Lol, probably 110 film

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I think 73-74 was snowy around the sound that year my Mom said.

Like a lot of big Ninas it was an extremely wet winter. Pretty non-stop jet stream that winter aside from a two week blocking episode with backdoor action in early January. Some snowy troughing in November and early March as well. 

[LowerGarfield]

Can someone link me the full February 2019 thread? I only see one thread from the middle of the month and couldn't find anything via search.

[Phishy Wx]

23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Godzilla Nina.

too nina-y

might cancel itself out

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It was insane, i got nuked over here . Original nws forecast was 1-3 advisory and i ended up with 15 that day.

Even got 4 thunder snow strikes.

I also got nuked. Call was for up to 6" and ended with 28". That was just the first round. Got hit by several more 6-12" storms over the next few weeks. 

[Phishy Wx]

do we have a Strong Nino to Strong Nina within one year Anal log?

or unchartered territory?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February 2019 was pretty wild. We had 52" of snow and it was the coldest February on record at Silver Falls. No extreme cold down here, but just consistent cold. I will always assert it was if January 1969 happened in February. 

I will say the mid-February through early April 2023 period was actually better here. 

[Groundhog]

The pressure gradient is still a bit tight as the outflow is still rippin’ here in Mission, BC. Warm air has mixed in, however.  It’s just above freezing with some zr overnight and this am. That beautiful 12-14” will soon be a sloppy mess.