February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 48/34 day here. On the seasonably cool side. Morning sunbreaks then some moderate late afternoon showers.

Light rain and 43 currently.

[ShawniganLake]

49 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Not evening f-ing close to the mean 

What does the mean look like?

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

What does the mean look like?

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

[Deweydog]

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the ECMWF is getting shaky on the freeze tomorrow night now.  Just a terrible run for the Central Puget Sound for min temps.

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 48/34 day here. On the seasonably cool side. Morning sunbreaks then some moderate late afternoon showers.

Light rain and 43 currently.

It's actually somewhat impressive the first half of Feb will go down as normal, or even a bit below for some places even with the strong Nino.  In fact from a 500mb height and 850mb temp anomaly standpoint the first half will likely be decidedly cool.  The details at the surface have sucked balls though.

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

he knows its over

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Not evening f-ing close to the mean 

Tons of support from other models though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

he knows its over

I sure wouldn't rule anything out with the massive SSW event that is about to unfold.  Feb has been our month in recent years.  That having been said it could well be over.  I just think it's kind of short sighted to be so sure it's over.

[AbbyJr]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I sure wouldn't rule anything out with the massive SSW event that is about to unfold.  Feb has been our month in recent years.  That having been said it could well be over.  I just think it's kind of short sighted to be so sure it's over.

I'd like to hope for another round of cold and snow but I'm just not seeing any strong evidence for a -PNA pattern.

[TT-SEA]

36 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Someone with a famous fault line user name should endlessly mock him for growing older and having changing priorities and being more pragmatic.    Pure evil.   

[Chewbacca Defense]

47 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Oh hell yeah, region wide blizzard inbound that will make 1949-1950 look like a light dusting....screw sun angles!

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Oh hell yeah, region wide blizzard inbound that will make 1949-1950 look like a light dusting....screw sun angles!

This a good point... that post is really asking for an epic event.

[LowerGarfield]

GFS wants to give me snow on Vday and the next day. I'm hoping for a snow map after the run is done.

[Slushy Inch]

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It’s coming!!! 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming!!! 

I’m pretty skeptical at this point. But I think looking at mid and long range models Feb may end up below average for temps overall, a nice win. Maybe mountain snowpack will recover.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

What's being shown on the 00z about 200 hours out could be a serious snowstorm for us central oregon folks!! If we got this setup, the snow totals could end up verifying as double what they're saying, since they almost always underestimate our totals IF we get the setup they forecast in the long range, just the problem is that we don't often get the setups they forecast. Occasionally we get lucky though.

 

[Slushy Inch]

Nice change on gefs.

[Doinko]

GEM glances us with some cold air as well. Not much but nice to see

[Slushy Inch]

This gefs run plus that eps control makes me thing that some wet snow is possible idk about down to sea level.

[Slushy Inch]

Sub40 high probability change

[snow_wizard]

GEFS is a lot colder on the mean at mid month than earlier runs.  This might start getting interesting.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Sub40 high probability change

Big change.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

GEFS is a lot colder on the mean at mid month than earlier runs.  This might start getting interesting.

My chance of inch or more of snow went from 0 percent to 20 to 30 percent chance.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

My chance of inch or more of snow went from 0 percent to 20 to 30 percent chance.

It wouldn't shock me if we find some February magic again.  The models have been incredibly reluctant to put us in a torch pattern, and have shown tons of blocking.  The second half of the month all of the SSW stuff starts to kick in as well.

[LowerGarfield]

Is there a total snowfall map for  WA/OR for the run yet? Interesting run. Any regional maps for the Ensemble? I'll ask again after the Euro runs.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It wouldn't shock me if we find some February magic again.  The models have been incredibly reluctant to put us in a torch pattern, and have shown tons of blocking.  The second half of the month all of the SSW stuff starts to kick in as well.

Maybe Phil reverse jinxed us. He was so confident in a mid month torch for the pnw.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Is there a total snowfall map for  WA/OR for the run yet? Interesting run. Any regional maps for the Ensemble? I'll ask again after the Euro runs.

Looks like some members bullseye pdx area.

[LowerGarfield]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Looks like some members bullseye pdx area.

Were it to verify I could get 2-4 inches.

[snow_wizard]

In the short term I really hope we can pull off a frosty night tomorrow night.  With straight northerly flow aloft we might be able to clear it out enough, although the models are not as confident on that now.

[MossMan]

38 and raining. 

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS sustains the cold setup much longer next week.  The Graph Cast has been showing that for a couple of days now.  That model looks like it might be the real deal.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

38 and raining. 

Pretty cold air mass.  We could be doing much worse given the circumstances.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Pretty cold air mass.  We could be doing much worse given the circumstances.

No 50 burgers and 3k snow level not bad

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

No 50 burgers and 3k snow level not bad

Snowing at 2400 on the Western approach to Snoqualmie Pass.  32 there so it's probably snowing down to 2000.

[MossMan]

2021 redux incoming! 

[Cold Snap]

Lightning strike over UW in Seattle.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Lightning strike over UW in Seattle.

Was not expecting that! Upper level temps had trended a bit colder in advance of tonight.