February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I kind of wish I had not posted anything this morning.  I'm just frustrated.

It’s no big deal Jim! This winter might just be shot it is what it is. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I do like that area, but all the work for me is along the I-5 corridor south of Seattle basically. So for me I’m thinking Buckley, Enumclaw, Ravensdale and North bend areas. It’s not just about snow for me either…I’d just like to live somewhere less crowded. More trees. Snow is a plus though. 

Less crowded FTW! I could NOT live in a typical neiborhood, I would be miserable.  For some people it's fine but when I walk out my door I have to.be in a spot where I can't see another house. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Less crowded FTW! I could NOT live in a typical neiborhood, I would be miserable.  For some people it's fine but when I walk out my door I have to.be in a spot where I can't see another house. 

Theres nothing wrong with north Tacoma at all I do like it here. It’s just been getting more congested and busy in my lifetime. The dream for me has always been to move away from the city. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF happened to the models today?  One of the most amazing pull backs I've seen in a long time at such a short time frame.  I think the GFS ended up being right by accident with this.  Huge bust for the Graph Cast.  Supposedly it will learn from this.

Why do you set yourself up for disappointment with such unwarranted expectations?

I’d have run myself into the grave by now if I’d done likewise for as long as you have.

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Less crowded FTW! I could NOT live in a typical neiborhood, I would be miserable.  For some people it's fine but when I walk out my door I have to.be in a spot where I can't see another house. 

Another reason why I love my place so much, no matter which way I look I only see woods from the house…Just how it should be. I don’t know how my sister can live in a cul-de-sac. About 7 different houses that look right at her house and their extra dump run truck (one of my old ones) had a low tire from sitting and they got a HOA WARNING violation for it, also they had a few weeds growing in their side parking gravel area. Good god…

Edited February 11 by MossMan

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why do you set yourself up for disappointment with such unwarranted expectations?

I’d have run myself into the grave by now if I’d done likewise for as long as you have.

Just enough of them work out to make it bearable.  I wasn't being unrealistic about the situation this week though.  The ECMWF was looking really solid for a nice cold snap yesterday.  Just a real flop on that model today.  Yesterday's 12z had 850s dropping to -9 over SEA and todays -3.  That is a BIG change.

 

[Omegaraptor]

37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The EURO showed 6" for Salem on last night's run. Of course when I looked at it I don't think they ever dropped below 34 on the run either, so it was just more phantom stuff. 

I slept through it. Looks like a lot of it just shows as mixed precipitation on that run.

[Slushy Inch]

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just enough of them work out to make it bearable.  I wasn't being unrealistic about the situation this week though.  The ECMWF was looking really solid for a nice cold snap yesterday.  Just a real flop on that model today.  Yesterday's 12z had 850s dropping to -9 over SEA and todays -3.  That is a BIG change.

 

For all the bloviating about how great the Euro is it definitely has its share of misses in the short to mid range too.

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I do like that area, but all the work for me is along the I-5 corridor south of Seattle basically. So for me I’m thinking Buckley, Enumclaw, Ravensdale and North bend areas. It’s not just about snow for me either…I’d just like to live somewhere less crowded. More trees. Snow is a plus though. 

I would go more toward North Bend.  Buckley and Enumclaw can get royally screwed for snow sometimes and are prone to ice events.  All of the places you list can get big east winds of course.  The Ravensdale and Hobart areas are quite nice and often do much better than me for snow.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

For all the bloviating about how great the Euro is it definitely has its share of misses in the short to mid range too.

For sure.  Just a total mishandling of the Pacific energy yesterday.  The Graph Cast still shows 850s dropping to -6 over SEA.  It could bust huge.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I have to say the -PNA signal showing up is pretty remarkable considering the circumstances.  We actually have a chance of slightly positive GOA heights for the month.  Unheard of in Feb with this ENSO state.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Quite delayed though on the 12Z EPS... it doesn't get there until almost the end of the run.    

At 12 days out its doesn't look too troughy yet.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I take back what I said this morning. It's still 100% going to snow, there are still a few good ensembles. 17" of snow here, 8" in salem. The models are forecasting the temps 7 degrees higher than they'll actually be.

[snow_wizard]

36 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s no big deal Jim! This winter might just be shot it is what it is. 

I guess.  I am pretty optimistic about the prospects for the next year to be quite enjoyable with the Nina coming up.  Very often the Feb - Apr period is the time I struggle most with this climate.  The recent successes in Feb have helped for sure.

[MossMan]

Tim does not want any more snow until December 24th 2024! 

[SnowWillarrive]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would go more toward North Bend.  Buckley and Enumclaw can get royally screwed for snow sometimes and are prone to ice events.  All of the places you list can get big east winds of course.  The Ravensdale and Hobart areas are quite nice and often do much better than me for snow.

It’s scary how expensive it has gotten out here.  Not sure what’s going to happen with inflation. But it’s not good. 

We do good in certain setups. Not as good as North Bend of course. But way better than places west of HWY 18. Sometimes the east wind can screw us. But marginal sets ups give us snow when places just a few miles west get cold rain. It does help that most of this area is above 550 feet and close to cold outflow. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim does not want any more snow until December 24th 2024! 

Thanksgiving 2024! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

@MossMan is in the gray!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Will trend north.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim does not want any more snow until December 24th 2024! 

Don't worry, I'm going to be in SE Asia end of next December/early January. We got a Feb 1989 redux while I was in Argentina this January. Expect a full on Dec 1996 redux next year.

Something like 12" of snow in Victoria last month while I was out, but this is the only thing resembling snow I've seen this winter:

[Willamette Weenie]

Looks like I might be eating some crow on my Feb snow fall in the valley prediction from earlier this month. 

 

...unless I'm actually making the predication for Feb 2025. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

This is OUTSTANDING. 

[Phil]

53 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would go more toward North Bend.  Buckley and Enumclaw can get royally screwed for snow sometimes and are prone to ice events.  All of the places you list can get big east winds of course.  The Ravensdale and Hobart areas are quite nice and often do much better than me for snow.

I thought you hated gloom? North Bend would be an SAD nightmare.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

I thought you hated gloom? North Bend would be an SAD nightmare.

I doubt there is much difference between North Bend and Covington in terms of gloom. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS doesn’t look too torchy at least 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I thought you hated gloom? North Bend would be an SAD nightmare.

This is a false statement.  First of all he only lives a few miles away as the crow flies right now so it wouldn't be too different.  And North Bend is often more sunny and less gloomy than his area in the cold season thanks to direct access to outflow through the pass.   

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is OUTSTANDING. 

-PNA response is common following SSWEs that project thru -NAO initially, so that’s not an unfeasible outcome by any means.

But that can also turn into a warm +EPO/+NPO type pattern, especially during El Niño.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS doesn’t look too torchy at least 

Still on pace for a solidly warm month. 

[iFred]

40 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Will trend north.

Hopefully not. Need our areas to dry out and warm up for planting.

[Phil]

If the LF general circulation regimen associated with this SSTA configuration doesn’t change soon, that awful, unrelenting heat which was confined to the Gulf states last summer (thanks to El Niño) will flood the lower-48 this summer.

The expanse and intensity of North American ridging will be beyond anyone’s comprehension. No interludes. We NEED to avoid a La Niña at all costs.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, iFred said:

Hopefully not. Need our areas to dry out and warm up for planting.

 

Just now, Phil said:

If the LF general circulation regimen associated with this SSTA configuration doesn’t change soon, that awful, unrelenting heat which was confined to the Gulf states last summer (thanks to El Niño) will flood the lower-48 this summer.

The expanse and intensity of North American ridging will be beyond anyone’s comprehension. We NEED to avoid a La Niña at all costs.  

If that happens I think the one exception would be here in the PNW, especially west of the Cascades. Would be a tremendous blessing for us. 

[bainbridgekid]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I would go more toward North Bend.  Buckley and Enumclaw can get royally screwed for snow sometimes and are prone to ice events.  All of the places you list can get big east winds of course.  The Ravensdale and Hobart areas are quite nice and often do much better than me for snow.

My GF lives in Enumclaw and it's amazing how different their climate is from here in Everett.

Seems like everytime it snows here it doesn't there and everytime it snows there it doesn't here. Same for wind. When it's windy there it's usually calm here and when we get strong winds it's usually calm there. And for their biggest rains I'm often shadowed. Led to some interesting (for me at least) conversations about the power of microclimates here because she always notices the difference.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

If the LF general circulation regimen associated with this SSTA configuration doesn’t change soon, that awful, unrelenting heat which was confined to the Gulf states last summer (thanks to El Niño) will flood the lower-48 this summer.

The expanse and intensity of North American ridging will be beyond anyone’s comprehension. No interludes. We NEED to avoid a La Niña at all costs.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

16 minutes ago, iFred said:

Hopefully not. Need our areas to dry out and warm up for planting.

This place is gonna turn pretty ruff for me now that you’ve become a Stepford wife too.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This place is gonna turn pretty ruff for me now that you’ve become a Stepford wife too.

Just keep being the passionate defender of anything that is not as popular to show how different you are.    Never-ending crusade to be contrarian above all else!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Today sure turned mild. Up to 54 with sunbreaks here. 56 at PDX.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 39 this morning at least, just after midnight. Amazingly PDX couldn’t even get below 40 the past two days. Sure feels like a typical niño February to me.

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I doubt there is much difference between North Bend and Covington in terms of gloom. 

I have noticed many days leaving work up near snoqualmie it’s cloudy and gloomy leaving there. Once you drop down Tiger mountain and pass Maple valley it’ll clear up. Obviously that’s not everyday and it’s the opposite in an inversion pattern. The weather up there can be a lot different compared to the lowlands. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Low of 39 this morning at least, just after midnight. Amazingly PDX couldn’t even get below 40 the past two days. Sure feels like a typical niño February to me.

Yeah, it could be worse right now though. February 2016 was pretty blegh. Atleast we might get a little snow falling in the mountains coming up. 
 Havent been below freezing since 1/16 here. Crazy we had some insane cold just a month ago and haven’t been able to freeze whatsoever since.