February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Has anyone actually figured out the process on how to lock it in? 

Get to La Niña 

[Slushy Inch]

End of month could be fun. Will probably need a strong pscz for significant snow in this pattern for western WA.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

End of month could be fun.

Really strong signal for an almost Ninaish pattern to finish out the month.  Very interesting.  In fact the EPS control has a nice continuation play at the end.  Cold gets delivered to BC from an earlier setup and then delivered into WA with another setup.

[snow_wizard]

At this point chilly and dry looks like the best call for next week.  Details could still change of course.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really strong signal for an almost Ninaish pattern to finish out the month.  Very interesting.  In fact the EPS control has a nice continuation play at the end.  Cold gets delivered to BC from an earlier setup and then delivered into WA with another setup.

Feb should end with below average temps for the 7th year in a row?

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Feb should end with below average temps for the 7th year in a row?

It's almost unfitting to call it below average anymore.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6z not as bullish. Thursday system probably going to be a nothing burger

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Has anyone actually figured out the process on how to lock it in? 

It used to involve sacrificing a virgin, but that is frowned upon by modern society, so another alternative would be that when you see a model solution you like, just stop looking.  Sure you aren't going to be happy when it doesn't pan out, but it beats the drawn out agony of watching the models drift away from your favored solution over the course of several days.  You just have the "rip the bandaid off" day when its sunny and 55, or 35 and raining as opposed to the 22 and blizzard conditions you saw in the models.

 

 

 

[MossMan]

Not going to switch out the plow for the mower deck just yet…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not going to switch out the plow for the mower deck just yet…

Omg 

[TacomaWx]

Nobody’s talking about that epic 37 degree snowstorm this week on the gfs?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Winters over, canceled, it's not gonna snow. We might as well just buy our properties in alaska now if we want to see snow. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Winters over, canceled, it's not gonna snow. We might as well just buy our properties in alaska now if we want to see snow. 

Moving to bend doesn’t sound like a bad idea to me lol. Seems like it snows there consistently enough. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are all waiting for about the 25th which is when there is some real potential for many.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

On 2/11/2024 at 8:19 AM, TacomaWx said:

Moving to bend doesn’t sound like a bad idea to me lol. Seems like it snows there consistently enough. 

Depends if you think 33 inches is enough. Personally that's not quite enough, but here in Sunriver I avg about 85 which is pretty good. I think the ideal amount for me is probably 90-120 inches of snow but in a climate like that, a lot of the year will suck, which is not worthit.

[ShawniganLake]

Wet morning 0.72” of rain overnight.  
 

Next weeks event is starting to get pretty watered down across all guidance. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

6z not as bullish. Thursday system probably going to be a nothing burger

I had a suspicion 

[Slushy Inch]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are all waiting for about the 25th which is when there is some real potential for many.

It is looking like a much more classic setup 

[Slushy Inch]

6z gefs.

[Slushy Inch]

Got that Kona low, everything looking good. A very meaty goa ridge compared to recent Jan event and upcoming attempt.

[Slushy Inch]

North focused pscz gets MossMan on this run. Westerns WA cold enough for snow with -7 850s.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

North focused pscz gets MossMan on this run. Westerns WA cold enough for snow with -7 850s.

Hour 342. Come on now

[ShawniganLake]

34 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It is looking like a much more classic setup 

Gonna need to kick those blue Colors out of Alaska.  
 

you know next week is in trouble when all we are seeing is gfs maps 2 weeks out

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

North focused pscz gets MossMan on this run. Westerns WA cold enough for snow with -7 850s.

Yep it’s coming! And this time I will not be left out! 

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Gonna need to kick those blue Colors out of Alaska.  
 

you know next week is in trouble when all we are seeing is gfs maps 2 weeks out

Next week was always in trouble. Ensembles actually agree on the next setup. Something we never had for next week.

[Slushy Inch]

14 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Gonna need to kick those blue Colors out of Alaska.  
 

you know next week is in trouble when all we are seeing is gfs maps 2 weeks out

Those blue colors in Alaska indeed cause it to be a cold onshore flow setup.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Those blue colors in Alaska indeed cause it to be a cold onshore flow setup.

Good mountain snow pattern at least.  They need it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been a pretty wet morning up here. Looks like much of the valley is dry though. 

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Depends if you think 33 inches is enough. Personally that's not quite enough, but here in Sunriver I avg about 50 which is pretty good. I think the ideal amount for me is probably 90-120 inches of snow but in a climate like that, a lot of the year will suck, which is not worthit.

Average here is like 6” of snow per year. We can go a couple years at a time without any snow here which sucks. I wouldn’t want to live somewhere that several feet of snow on the ground was typical throughout the winter…but a location that atleast sees 6-12” even in a bad winter would be ideal. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Good mountain snow pattern at least.  They need it. 

It is cold enough for snow in wester WA though.

[MossMan]

[Phishy Wx]

10 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Has anyone actually figured out the process on how to lock it in? 

[MossMan]

Then we had this gem…Which I will be seeing a redux of before the end of the month! 
Spring had sprung on the 11th…Then one week later I had over 15” of snow on the ground, then several smaller snow events through the end of the month. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 years ago I was getting ready for what would be the best snow event of my life at home. 28 inches fell in 36hrs. 19 inches in 24 and at one point I had 5 inches in 1.5 hrs with 4 strikes of lighting. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are all waiting for about the 25th which is when there is some real potential for me

Yes anduefbe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Average here is like 6” of snow per year. We can go a couple years at a time without any snow here which sucks. I wouldn’t want to live somewhere that several feet of snow on the ground was typical throughout the winter…but a location that atleast sees 6-12” even in a bad winter would be ideal. 

I'm sure there are places near you that meet this criteria. We average 35-40" here, I'm sure Tim's area averages that or a bit more at a lower elevation. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yes anduefbe.

Cold onshore flow rules... Everything else is a big tease.

[snow_wizard]

WTF happened to the models today?  One of the most amazing pull backs I've seen in a long time at such a short time frame.  I think the GFS ended up being right by accident with this.  Huge bust for the Graph Cast.  Supposedly it will learn from this.

[MossMan]

37 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Average here is like 6” of snow per year. We can go a couple years at a time without any snow here which sucks. I wouldn’t want to live somewhere that several feet of snow on the ground was typical throughout the winter…but a location that atleast sees 6-12” even in a bad winter would be ideal. 

Come and be my neighbor! Been getting between 20” and 40” every winter since the crapfest that was 2015/16. 
 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF happened to the models today?  One of the most amazing pull backs I've seen in a long time at such a short time frame.  I think the GFS ended up being right by accident with this.  Huge bust for the Graph Cast.  Supposedly it will learn from this.