February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yesterday morning was the frosty one here. No frost this morning. Too cloudy overnight.

We’ve had quite a bit of frost recently but not this morning.  A fair bit of rain on the way tonight.  Tomorrow gets a bit breezy for some. 

[Eugene-5SW]

49 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think something will shift at some point, for at least a couple years, even with the long term background warming continuing. Hot summers continuing forever sounds kind of fantastical. Not really how climate change usually works.

Except it sure seems like the summer surface temps associated with a specific synoptic pattern are warmer nowadays than they were just 20 years ago, at least for interior lowlands like the Willamette Valley.

It’s not hard to envision a “tipping point” scenario under which climate change has, with relative suddenness, made it harder for marine influence to moderate summer surface temps in these areas.

Of course I recognize there are other factors driving our recent hot summers as well, but this one could be loading the dice against cool summers even on the increasingly rare occasions when the large-scale patterns are more amenable to them.

[TacomaWx]

48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2011 really was not that long ago… I’m not predicting a cool summer by any means, but saying we can’t have one seems a bit dramatic. 

Lol you calling someone dramatic is rather ironic

 summers are just hot now. We smash records left and right. I’m sure not every summer will be like that in the future…but I don’t really think cooler than normal summers are coming…atleast by 1981-2010 averages. 1991-2020 averages are way warmer. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Lol you calling someone dramatic is rather ironic

 summers are just hot now. We smash records left and right. I’m sure not every summer will be like that in the future…but I don’t really think cooler than normal summers are coming…atleast by 1981-2010 averages. 1991-2020 averages are way warmer. 

I'm just saying you were like 11 years old in 2011, it really wasn't that long ago, though it seems so to you. 

[LowerGarfield]

38 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

You can look for free on Pivotal. 
 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024021000&fh=18&r=us_nw&dpdt=&mc=

I had no idea, thank you.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I had no idea, thank you.

Not as pretty as the weatherbell maps but gives you a pretty good overview 

[ShawniganLake]

Cypress mountain ski hill looking very El Niño like. Reminiscent of the 2010 Olympic year in Vancouver 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Huge storm in CA one week from today on ECMWF... while sunny and cool in western WA.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

ALERT

There is a god!! Yes!!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

There is a god!! Yes!!

The same God will eventually create another Nino too!  

Spreads the wealth around the globe.    Its not all about WA state.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The same God will eventually create another Nino too!  

Spreads the wealth around the globe.    Its not all about WA state.   

Nino's make it rain here non stop here now apparently.  

[ShawniganLake]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Huge storm in CA one week from today on ECMWF... while sunny and cool in western WA.

Upper 40s around Vancouver BC would be a little warmer than normal.  

[Doinko]

Euro gets a good amount of cold air into the Columbia Basin, 850s get down to -9c over PDX and -10/-11c over SEA.

 

00z for comparison

 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Euro gets a good amount of cold air into the Columbia Basin, 850s get down to -9c over PDX and -10/-11c over SEA.

 

00z for comparison

 

Highs in the 30s here with a strong east wind

 

 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Nino's make it rain here non stop here now apparently.  

I thought it was going to be raining non-stop when we get home next week and now it looks like we might come home to days of sunshine.   Small tweaks in the pattern means big changes in our tangible weather.

[Doinko]

And definitely some potential at the end

 

[the_convergence_zone]

43 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Except it sure seems like the summer surface temps associated with a specific synoptic pattern are warmer nowadays than they were just 20 years ago, at least for interior lowlands like the Willamette Valley.

It’s not hard to envision a “tipping point” scenario under which climate change has, with relative suddenness, made it harder for marine influence to moderate summer surface temps in these areas.

Of course I recognize there are other factors driving our recent hot summers as well, but this one could be loading the dice against cool summers even on the increasingly rare occasions when the large-scale patterns are more amenable to them.

Over the past 10 years the 850 hPa temps at Quillayute have warmed 3x faster in summer than winter. And that doesn’t even include urban heat island which further warms temperatures in urban areas. I don’t know if that trend will hold, but I think it’s fair to predict that summer will warm at least twice as fast as winter going forward given the feedback effects on the environment caused by humidity. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know I've poo poo'd this upcoming potential, but at best it reminds me a bit of an impoverished man's 2014 type setup. 

[Doinko]

Multiple cold waves into the middle of the country. 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Multiple cold waves into the middle of the country. 

 

Rollercoaster for KY..

[TT-SEA]

This is for @Rubus Leucodermis... some 60 burgers in Oregon by day 9?

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This is for @Rubus Leucodermis... some 60 burgers in Oregon by day 9?

Looks like large diurnal spreads towards the end. Down to freezing that same night! Very dry run though

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like large diurnal spreads towards the end. Down to freezing that same night! Very dry run though

Pretty similar to what we saw in February 2003.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS gave me goosebumps.

Has @TT-SEA threatened any of our beloved houseless population today? #werallhuman 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Long range GFS gave me goosebumps.

Has @TT-SEA threatened any of our beloved houseless population today? #werallhuman 

Screw you Andrew.   We are definitely all human.   My issue is not with those in need.  My issue is with the people doing it because it's cool to live off the grid and take away beaches from everyone else.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Screw you Andrew.   We are all definitely all human.   My issue is not with those in need.  My issue is with the people doing it because it's cool to live off the grid and take away beaches from everyone else.  

I’ll remember that next time I’m not allowed in your yacht club. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ll remember that next time I’m not allowed in your yacht club. 

Your character likes to create villains!   We would have to sell our house to join a yacht club for one month.    

[TT-SEA]

Given how rainy its been... this looks like quite a sunny stretch at home.   Pretty sure the lows are too warm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Given how rainy its been... this looks like quite a sunny stretch at home.   Pretty sure the lows are too warm.

Given the overall dampness of the December-January period it seemed a good bet February would be much drier. As I've said before, what we have seen this month seems fairly typical for February in a strong Nino. Probably won't see a wetter regime until late in the month, some of the runs going out that far have been mildly intriguing for fans of onshore flow. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ll remember that next time I’m not allowed in your yacht club. 

This is quite ironic as well given your posts elsewhere on this forum. How do feel about the border issues Andrew?  Since we are all humans.   Just let everyone do what they want?  Do we need rules? Are you on the conservative side of that "crisis"?    More so than me.   No need to answer or debate here.   Just pointing out the irony of your comments to me.   We can discuss in OT if you want.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We had a little over 31" of precip in Dec/January. Normal is about 22". 1.41" so far this month, about 1/3rd of normal. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF.   

[snow_wizard]

Coldest Graph Cast run yet with 850s dropping below -8 over SEA.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF.   

That one day would be like a -13 departure.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF.   

What does PDX look like?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

What does PDX look like?

Like any other airport.   Strange carpet though!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What does PDX look like?

 

[snow_wizard]

The models are beginning to see something late month with PNA going decidedly minus.  Decent chance a ridge bridge could develop with the -NAO going too.

Meanwhile....it dropped to 31 here last night.  First freeze since the big cold wave.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

Really nice shot of frosty air. 

 

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The models are beginning to see something late month with PNA going decidedly minus.  Decent chance a ridge bridge could develop with the -NAO going too.

Meanwhile....it dropped to 31 here last night.  First freeze since the big cold wave.

Wow you waited a long time for a freeze. I loved what the GFS hinted at late month. 

[TT-SEA]

EPS looks pretty zonal by the end of the run.   Could be lots of spread or maybe another wet pattern.   Probably good for the mountains.