Gorgeous sunset from Mt Tabor park. Lots of big, downed trees on the north and east side of the park from our ARCTIC WINDS three weeks ago. But honestly the damage wasn’t quite as bad as I feared. I guess the historic shelter took a pretty good hit but that part of the park was cordoned off.
I was intrigued so I looked up the average high and low temperatures across WA for August of 1899. Olga's average low of 45F is pretty impressive as it's about 4 degrees colder than anything we've seen in the last 50 years. The fact it's so much colder than every other location on the west side does make me wonder if there was an error with the thermometer at that time or maybe it was just incredible cold winds blowing off the straight.
The Seattle average high for the month was almost 10 d
With the shift across guidance, has come a more niña-like regime (projected) in tropical forcing. Still dominated by MJO/subseasonal conponents, but no hints of that niño-like LF signal near the dateline anymore.
It’s still relatively early, but perhaps the upcoming gyration in the pattern will mark the end of residual niño elements to the system state, and the onset of more systematic -ENSO tendency.
Which would be unfortunate for CA/SW US, though hopefully the last 2yrs have offerred some degree of insurance.
If there’s any saving grace for them, it’s that we don’t have that ridiculously wide & poleward WHEM-NPAC ITCZ/HC system that we saw in 2021 and 2022 (and 2017), so we *should* avoid that beastly, north-shifted 4CH pattern that roasted the SW/Interior West without relent. But I doubt it’ll be enough to avoid widespread above normal departures just about everywhere.
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