February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[LowerGarfield]

It's a perfect day on my side of the mountains. Bright and sunny, light breeze, and some scattered clouds to the south and east. I'm sunbathing on the hospital's hill while my wife has her pt appointment. Glorious weather.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I wish and hope everyone gets snow with the upcoming pattern. 

With that being said I’m only confident Mossman will see significant snow. Karma doesn’t exist. 

We shall see.  He hasn't done that well this winter so far.  The models are such a mess right now no telling what will actually happen.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

I’m happy with my 13.5”. It’s below average, but 11” of that fell within a week and barely melted for 12 days. So it felt like much more (for reference, the 3 feet that fell in Jan  2016 was gone within a week).

Also, it’s probably more than you’ll get this winter.  

Sounds like a smarter east coast version of me

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Yup I’m hoping for things to continue like they have so we don’t have to constantly deal with “well Randy will get 6”” comments that just aren’t true. According to some folks on here he has 4’ of snow because any pattern will dump on him despite not being true. 

I am at 3” for the season!! 

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I am at 3” for the season!! 

That would be a weird year if I end up beating you in snow totals. Currently at 14.1"

[umadbro]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I am at 3” for the season!! 

I’m around 8-10. The January event was tough to get an accurate reading. 6-8 with that event. But since Andrew has 10” I’m going with 10”.

[bainbridgekid]

Stronger CZ Sunday night in South Snohomish/North King Counties on the 18z. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

GFS 18z shows a nice upslope event for me Monday night

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I am at 3” for the season!! 

I'm at 49"! I would assume nobody on this forum has gotten more this season, right? Usually AlTahoe would have me beat, but not this year.

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS shifts further east with the second trough.  At least we're getting something in return for the first one wimping out.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I'm at 49"! I would assume nobody on this forum has gotten more this season, right? Usually AlTahoe would have me beat, but not this year.

Brian in Bellingham…I mean Leavenworth has a healthy total but I can’t remember exactly what that was now. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

18z GFS shifts further east with the second trough.  At least we're getting something in return for the first one wimping out.

First punch is still decent for a few areas.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18z wants to spin the second trough off shore

[snow_wizard]

Insanely cold SW flow at the 850mb level on this run.  I can score with that.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

18z wants to spin the second trough off shore

The cold tongue on the back of that low is amazing.  Shorten up that water trajectory and things could get very interesting.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The cold tongue on the back of that low is amazing.  Shorten up that water trajectory and things could get very interesting.

Wrong flow for me. But great for most. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Strange evolution with that second trough. It just sits there. 

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Strange evolution with that second trough. It just sits there. 

Would be a potentially very stormy pattern 

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Looks like a couple of feet of 10:1 snow here. Kuchera will probably be half of that of less

[the_convergence_zone]

Such a gigantic waste of -6 to -7 T850s for the lowlands...

...but you couldn't dream up a better run to make up our mountain snowpack deficit. 

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS is going kind of OMG on the second trough.  Mean 850s on the second trough below -6 and still falling before this month is even over.  I'm going to stay optimistic for now in spite of the rug pull on the Monday night snow here.  I just get so frustrated with this locations sometimes.

[snow_wizard]

Amazing eastward trend with trough number 2 right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Operational isn’t quite there yet, but it’s getting there. 

[snow_wizard]

4 day snow totals at hour 213.  Looks pretty real.  850s hover around -7 over SEA for a good period of time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'd bet a fiddle of gold that gold beach somehow doesn't get 7 inches of snow.

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Operational isn’t quite there yet, but it’s getting there. 

It's the warmest ensemble member for a good period of time.  The mean has progressed better at a ridiculous rate over the last day.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's the warmest ensemble member for a good period of time.  The mean has progressed better at a ridiculous rate over the last day.

GEFS hints at a third punch. 

[RCola]

51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

4 day snow totals at hour 213.  Looks pretty real.  850s hover around -7 over SEA for a good period of time.

Meh, looks like every other snow map this season with the signature Seattle snow hole.

Don't get me wrong: I'd take the 2 inches as advertised, but considering this is a 10:1 ratio map from an 18z GFS ensemble run that is 200+ hours out, I wouldn't get too excited. We've seen maps like these a few times this winter, and the common theme is a snow-rain mix at best overnight near the Sound.  Pending major changes, which are always possible in this business, this is shaping up to be a nonevent for Seattle folks. It's not our winter, and that's okay. It doesn't always work out. This looks great for the mountains, though, and for lower elevation folks who have already scored something this winter.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

12z ECMWF was great, here's the 10:1 ratio map. Anyone got the kuchera? 

 

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

 

The beaches get hammered!  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

4 day snow totals at hour 213.  Looks pretty real.  850s hover around -7 over SEA for a good period of time.

If you have any elevation you’re gonna get pounded with this setup. With the heavy precipitation rates, the snow level will likely drag down to sea level at times. Everyone should get in on the action at some point.

[SnowWillarrive]

15 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

If you have any elevation you’re gonna get pounded with this setup. With the heavy precipitation rates, the snow level will likely drag down to sea level at times. Everyone should get in on the action at some point.

I like your optimism 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I like your optimism 

Snow

will

ARRIVE!!!!!

[Meatyorologist]

I'm so confused... That first trough still looks great? With lots of marginal snow chances. Were people on this forum rooting for the models to send that deep Arctic air into the region? And that's why people are mumbling about a "rug pull"? Becuase from my eye, and I've been paying attention for a few days, models haven't really changed at all from yesterday, at least for Washington. Definitely not for Jim. Maybe some waffling in the precip/sfc pressure department but we all know those specifics are a coin flip more than a few days out.

Mountains look to get some decent insurance right on time at the end of the season. The second trough in the LR is highly up for debate and could be subject to Niño-fication as it approaches the short range, perhaps trending towards more GOA-spillage and the reintroduction of BSF into our region. But the move towards relatively colder MAMs in recent years makes me believe the big carving out trough solution could be real.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm so confused... That first trough still looks great? With lots of marginal snow chances. Were people on this forum rooting for the models to send that deep Arctic air into the region? And that's why people are mumbling about a "rug pull"? Becuase from my eye, and I've been paying attention for a few days, models haven't really changed at all from yesterday, at least for Washington. Definitely not for Jim. Maybe some waffling in the precip/sfc pressure department but we all know those specifics are a coin flip more than a few days out.

Mountains look to get some decent insurance right on time at the end of the season. The second trough in the LR is highly up for debate and could be subject to Niño-fication as it approaches the short range, perhaps trending towards more GOA-spillage and the reintroduction of BSF into our region. But the move towards relatively colder MAMs in recent years makes me believe the big carving out trough solution could be real.

I think the first trough does look great. And the second is trending better. 

[MossMan]

No matter how you slice it…Next week will look and feel like winter should! 

[MossMan]

Does feel like early spring this evening, still a bit light out and the frogs are a full go!! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

That would be a weird year if I end up beating you in snow totals. Currently at 14.1"

Currently at 14.4" IMBY so I'm beating both of you!

[T-Town]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Does feel like early spring this evening, still a bit light out and the frogs are a full go!! 

Kinda feels like winter’s last hurrah next week. 

[T-Town]

Beautiful evening.