March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Randyc321]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Alert?

Hilarious.  I was wrong about my trip to the coast.  It's not the week of the 18th!  It is the week of the 25th.  Raincoats look to be in order.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

A few spits of rain earlier, now just cloudy and breezy and 51 degrees. 

Only 43 here after a low of 38.

[Randyc321]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Or maybe much more.

Looks like Moclips is in the blue.  Would love me some beach snow.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

Hilarious.  I was wrong about my trip to the coast.  It's not the week of the 18th!  It is the week of the 25th.  Raincoats look to be in order.

Actually a trough like that is more cold than wet.

[Randyc321]

6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

A few spits of rain earlier, now just cloudy and breezy and 51 degrees. 

46 here with a spitty looking deck.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Hilarious.  I was wrong about my trip to the coast.  It's not the week of the 18th!  It is the week of the 25th.  Raincoats look to be in order.

We’ll be visiting my dad in Port Townsend that weekend too. Could be some classic PNW spring weather.

[snow_wizard]

I'm already smelling a blocky regime next winter.  It could be a really good one given the base state we will have.

[TT-SEA]

This front this morning is not very solid... but the ECMWF blasts us with a south wind gusting over 40 mph in Seattle later this afternoon and evening.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm already smelling a blocky regime next winter.  It could be a really good one given the base state we will have.

I think you’ve said this at some point every spring the last 15 years.

[T-Town]

Quick jump in temp as the wind picked up. 

[snow_wizard]

For the record the latest widespread lowland snow event in the period of record here (basically 1848 to present) was at the very end of March 1936.  A very significant snow event with much below normal temps afterward.  There have been some notable snows in April, but not as widespread and not nearly as cold.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think you’ve said this at some point every spring the last 15 years.

Not really.  I've been pretty subdued the last few years.  Last year I actually began my 6 month absence from the forum around this time.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

For the record the latest widespread lowland snow event in the period of record here (basically 1848 to present) was at the very end of March 1936.  A very significant snow event with much below normal temps afterward.  There have been some notable snows in April, but not as widespread and not nearly as cold.

Different hemisphere, but the Portland area had a very widespread 3-4” on April 11, 2022

[Phishy Wx]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Alert?

give it 5 days, then maybe

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Different hemisphere, but the Portland area had a very widespread 3-4” on April 11, 2022

I remember getting 17" total with that BLAST. It was a notable storm, even if it had happened in winter, and it was really fun having it happen in the middle of the spring time. A semi was picking up a load of nursery stock at the farm at the end of our road and got stuck in front of my driveway, poor guy had to spend the night out there in his cab. I went out to check on him, but he was already asleep and didn't hear me knocking on his door. Next morning we helped him dig out so he could get going on his way to New Jersey. 

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  Right now the MJO is saying go big or go home.  That is one insane wave.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Different hemisphere, but the Portland area had a very widespread 3-4” on April 11, 2022

I specified widespread and very cold.  1936 had major snows over a very wide area that came in a couple of different waves.  I think Justin would agree with me on this one.

[SnowWillarrive]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Or maybe much more.

Washington State needs it 

[Cascadia_Wx]

One issue with the 12z GFS is that it breaks the ridging down a lot slower than the 06z did. I want to see that thing crash!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does not look like its going the retrogression route at the end of the run.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

One issue with the 12z GFS is that it breaks the ridging down a lot slower than the 06z did. I want to see that thing crash!

Big retrogression is way better.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF does not look like its going the retrogression route at the end of the run.

 

That big lobe of high pressure just south of AK could do it though.

With a big MJO wave in play I can't imagine the ridge staying in one place for too long.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That big lobe of high pressure just south of AK could do it though.

With a big MJO wave in play I can't imagine the ridge staying in one place for too long.

Completely different than the GFS at that time though and looks more stable than the end of its 00Z run.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Big retrogression is way better.

I’m just hoping for lots of mild valley rain and mountain snow to close out the month.

[snow_wizard]

To further expound on the late snow thing.  I was saying that late March / very early April 1936 was the gold standard for a widespread / notably cold late winter event.  Snow in Seattle, Portland, and most lowland locations in WA and NW OR.  The cold afterward was insane.  Landsburg had a 40/20 and a 43/18 out of that which is on the order of -15 departures on those days.

April has had notable lowland snow events such as 1911, 1945, 1972 and 2022, but they are not nearly as cold or widespread.  Hope that clears it up.

[TT-SEA]

Mild morning awaiting the rain and wind.

[snow_wizard]

All I know right now is the first half of March is going to have a very respectable average temp.  SEA is running -6.2 through yesterday with another cold trough on the way before the big ridge.  Big trough to ridge transitions are great for cold mins.

[TT-SEA]

Another thing I have noticed after the ECMWF suite upgrade is that it comes out faster and in large chunks rather than frame by frame.    The EPS just jumped from 138 hours to 210 hours in one refresh.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at 240 hours... 

[TT-SEA]

SEA up to 54 now with a SSW wind that has been gusting close to 30 mph... interesting that the wind is arriving before the rain starts.  

[BLI snowman]

48 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I specified widespread and very cold.  1936 had major snows over a very wide area that came in a couple of different waves.  I think Justin would agree with me on this one.

I agree that week in 1936 is probably the latest regional snow, and latest sub-40 highs for a lot of places.

The April 2008 trough was pretty close to regional from a snow in the air perspective, but most areas near sea level just had a trace of accumulation. Other April snows have traditionally been a little more localized in their breadth, even though there have been a lot of events around the region.

April 1875 was a very legit airmass and I don't know if you have any data on it. Portland had a 40/32 day with what appeared to be gorge outflow on the 4th. New Westminster, BC had a dry 39/20 on the 4th and Spences Bridge just north of Lytton had a subfreezing high. So a very, very late arctic airmass. 1874-75 was a crazy winter and that was the final bow. 

Edited March 9 by BLI snowman

[Phishy Wx]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF does not look like its going the retrogression route at the end of the run.

this is way more believable than that GFS garbage

[SouthHillFrosty]

Palm trees look better in Seattle then San Diego.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS not there yet with retrogression at the end of the run... but might be slowly heading that way.   Still a strong cold signal to the east at 15 days out.

[the_convergence_zone]

The GFS control run is off the deep end. I’ll take the return to seasonal weather for the end of the month. Everything will be so nice and green by then. 

[ShawniganLake]

Environment Canada is on board for a pretty major wind for the coastline of southern Vancouver island tonight. SE winds gusting over 60mph.  We will likely be Sheltered here in Shawnigan Lake as these events are usually most severe within a couple miles of the shoreline. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

To further expound on the late snow thing.  I was saying that late March / very early April 1936 was the gold standard for a widespread / notably cold late winter event.  Snow in Seattle, Portland, and most lowland locations in WA and NW OR.  The cold afterward was insane.  Landsburg had a 40/20 and a 43/18 out of that which is on the order of -15 departures on those days.

April has had notable lowland snow events such as 1911, 1945, 1972 and 2022, but they are not nearly as cold or widespread.  Hope that clears it up.

Was in 1935 or 1936 when Portland had 5” of snow around April 1st? 

[SnowWillarrive]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA up to 54 now with a SSW wind that has been gusting close to 30 mph... interesting that the wind is arriving before the rain starts.  

Quite a bit nicer today than I expected 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think we are due for a 19th century winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

41 and raining here, with a gusty wind. 6-8” of complete slop and mud out there. Once it starts melting I hope it goes fast.