SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 Just now, snow_wizard said: Difficult to not be dry with high pressure dominating the NE Pacific. Horrible outcome. Some model runs have been showing a wetter more favorable solution. In this climate we always need rain and as much as we can get. 1 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Horrible outcome. Some model runs have been showing a wetter more favorable solution. In this climate we always need rain and as much as we can get. Just so infuriating that Seattle and Portland average 200+ days without rain each year. Almost like dry days outnumber wet days per climo. Darn climo getting in the way of your wet dreams. 2 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 Just now, TT-SEA said: Just so infuriating that Seattle and Portland average 200+ days without rain each year. Almost like dry days outnumber wet days per climo. Darn climo getting in the way of your wet dreams. Years like 1996 are the gold standard. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunriver Snow Zone Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: GFS might end up being right. Sometimes it does great with catching onto things in the longer range. It's good for catching onto things, often times being wrong, but when something does happen, it probably called it in the long range. Although it is terrible with details Quote Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated March 27th) 107" Snow depth at my home (updated March 27th): none 23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated March 27th): 84" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunriver Snow Zone Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just so infuriating that Seattle and Portland average 200+ days without rain each year. Almost like dry days outnumber wet days per climo. Darn climo getting in the way of your wet dreams. You'd think he was a teenager with all his wet dreams... 1 Quote Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated March 27th) 107" Snow depth at my home (updated March 27th): none 23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated March 27th): 84" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just so infuriating that Seattle and Portland average 200+ days without rain each year. Almost like dry days outnumber wet days per climo. Darn climo getting in the way of your wet dreams. You're missing this at the end of your post -> 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunriver Snow Zone Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 31 currently, this weather sucks. Either give us real mountain storms, cold sunny days, or warm sunny days, not this crap. I wish the perfect climate actually existed... 1 3 Quote Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated March 27th) 107" Snow depth at my home (updated March 27th): none 23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated March 27th): 84" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 Looks like I could get a freeze in Wednesday night. 2 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 38 with some rain about this morning. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 I heard Andrew doesn't like burgers? Grilling season is coming up, and a bunch of 60s and 70s out there. cmon man! 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 Wind! And mostly clear. 40 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 40 degrees and dead calm here this morning. The sun is trying to peek out. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 46 and drizzle in Chico currently, which is the low. Forecast high is 60. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 9 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Totally agree. Many of the nights during whatever warm period actually happens could be pretty cold in the outlying areas. At this point above normal daily averages appear they will be limited to maybe as little as 4 days for some places. At least 5 days, if not 6 for most places you mean The writing is on the wall for March anomalies going positive 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighHillsRunner Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 14 hours ago, westcoastexpat said: NWS Climate Prediction Centre Outlook for the last week of March and first week of April Looking like March may be well above normal and dry when all is said and done (especially after a week in the mid to upper 60s). A bit concerning going into wildfire season. This looks promising; then maybe we can get a couple weeks of solid rain mid-late April to quench Andrew’s thirst Quote Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’ ”All models are wrong, some are useful.” -G. Box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 4 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said: This looks promising; then maybe we can get a couple weeks of solid rain mid-late April to quench Andrew’s thirst Those outlooks tend to be kinda trash. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said: I heard Andrew doesn't like burgers? Grilling season is coming up, and a bunch of 60s and 70s out there. cmon man! Or hot dogs, last time we discussed food on here. 1 6 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighHillsRunner Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Those outlooks tend to be kinda trash. Hmm, yeah EPS does look much cooler/wet to close out the month comparatively. Guess I’ll be model riding for a bit. 1 1 Quote Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’ ”All models are wrong, some are useful.” -G. Box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 Overcast with a low of 43 this morning as the next system approaches offshore. This one looks to be the chilliest of the current sequence at the 850mb level, but it’s also the system that will usher in our coming ridge on its heels, as it digs into the SW. Flagstaff should get a good dump of snow by later this week. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Overcast with a low of 43 this morning as the next system approaches offshore. This one looks to be the chilliest of the current sequence at the 850mb level, but it’s also the system that will usher in our coming ridge on its heels, as it digs into the SW. Flagstaff should get a good dump of snow by later this week. Will get very close to snow here, maybe flakes in the air. Seems this coming ridge will be fairly short lived. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 12Z GFS looks significantly warmer for next week with a slower breakdown... but the 12Z GEM went towards a more aggressive approach like the GFS was showing yesterday. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GFS looks significantly warmer for next week with a slower breakdown... but the 12Z GEM went towards a more aggressive approach like the GFS was showing yesterday. Most ensembles are leaning towards the ridge drifting west/north allowing under cutting or back door. We probably see more rain/cool weather towards the end of the month. 1 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Most ensembles are leaning towards the ridge drifting west/north allowing under cutting or back door. We probably see more rain/cool weather towards the end of the month. For sure... its March. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 39 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Overcast with a low of 43 this morning as the next system approaches offshore. This one looks to be the chilliest of the current sequence at the 850mb level, but it’s also the system that will usher in our coming ridge on its heels, as it digs into the SW. Flagstaff should get a good dump of snow by later this week. Not sure if to be happy or sad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: For sure... its March. LOL. Some would believe it is August. 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 Looks like some cells off the coast are rotating. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 12Z ECMWF is slow to come out this morning but the CONUS view has updated through 240 hours now and it shows a ULL coming inland next Wednesday and Thursday with rain and mountain snow. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF is slow to come out this morning but the CONUS view has updated through 240 hours now and it shows a ULL coming inland next Wednesday and Thursday with rain and mountain snow. Big change from last run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 I almost moved to Flagstaff at one point. probably should've 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said: Big change from last run ULL was there on 00Z run but stayed offshore... this run is more progressive. GFS went the other way now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Most ensembles are leaning towards the ridge drifting west/north allowing under cutting or back door. We probably see more rain/cool weather towards the end of the month. Crazy. I was really hoping for three straight weeks of 70s. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 12z GEFS seems to look more like the operational Euro and GEM, with a quicker breakdown of the ridge. We’re definitely not out of the woods yet, but some promising signs that this thing might end up being fairly tolerable. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: ULL was there on 00Z run but stayed offshore... this run is more progressive. GFS went the other way now. Gefs didn’t go other way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 12z Euro fully on board with temps near 70 both Saturday and Sunday. Low 70's in the foothills Saturday. Perfectly timed with peak warmth over the weekend and if things break down sooner with some mountain snow later next week that's best of both worlds IMO. 3 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 12z Euro has PDX at 67 degrees at 00z Monday (Sunday afternoon). Even adding 3-4 degrees for a cool bias, that would put them at 70-71 for a high. I wonder if Mark will go down with his 77 degree ship for Sunday on tonight’s 7-day. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 12z Euro fully on board with temps near 70 both Saturday and Sunday. Low 70's in the foothills Saturday. Perfectly timed with peak warmth over the weekend and if things break down sooner with some mountain snow later next week that's best of both worlds IMO. That is going to feel amazing! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 26 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: 12z Euro has PDX at 67 degrees at 00z Monday (Sunday afternoon). Even adding 3-4 degrees for a cool bias, that would put them at 70-71 for a high. I wonder if Mark will go down with his 77 degree ship for Sunday on tonight’s 7-day. Euro spits out 69 Sat and 68 Sun for PDX. Oddly it shows 69 both days for Everett though. Would be weird for us to be warmer than you in a pattern like this. If we are near 70 like that I would think mid 70's would be very achievable down there. Mark's 77 forecast at this range definitely feels click baity though. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Anti Marine Layer Posted March 11 Popular Post Report Share Posted March 11 Coconut oil begins to melt at about 75 F. Jesse begins to melt at a much lower temperature than that. 1 1 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Euro spits out 69 Sat and 68 Sun for PDX. Oddly it shows 69 both days for Everett though. Would be weird for us to be warmer than you in a pattern like this. If we are near 70 like that I would think mid 70's would be very achievable down there. Mark's 77 forecast at this range definitely feels click baity though. Possible there’s a little more offshore flow/downsloping being advertised up that way, due to the rex block-esque positioning of the ridge. And be careful what you say. He has a habit of calling out dissenters on air Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 11 Report Share Posted March 11 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: 12z GEFS seems to look more like the operational Euro and GEM, with a quicker breakdown of the ridge. We’re definitely not out of the woods yet, but some promising signs that this thing might end up being fairly tolerable. Mark NELSEN thinks this brings record heat. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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