March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Nice day... up to 50 in North Bend now. 

Baseline pic before warm spell... will try to post an update in one week to see the changes.   Maybe a green tinge to the trees by then?

[Phil]

38 minutes ago, iFred said:

Nah. I was involved with two different forums that required some kind of donation drive or squabbling over things like adverts and memberships. The bills average ~150 a month and I can cover it without any issue, so that can rule out a lot of drama. The real reason why some of the upgrades have dragged on or why @hawkstwelve doesn't have SSH access yet is that my time seems to be feast or famine, especially with a kid, a job at FAANG Co, and a side project/startup/fever dream.

I still have a kanban board with the following:
- recovering deleted posts from the April 2023 forum hack
- merging westernwx.info forum
- cleaning up storage (unlimited storage is the largest driver of costs, thats why I don't like it when Phil uploads a 40 minutes 8k iPhone video of flurries)
- setting up YVR/SEA/PDX High Res WRF and local Graphcast
- write a "Looking back on 10 years" post

I'll get to this sooner or later.

Hardy har har. I’ve uploaded 1 video this yr and it was 15 secs.

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS is still showing troughing across almost all of the country in the long range.  

That’s a mean-looking severe pattern east of the Mississippi.  

[Phishy Wx]

PV gunna try to make another long extended cool spring into May.  winter may be 'over' per-se but doesn't eliminate the chance at a cool and/or wet extended spring like what was it '22? or '21.  no?

[Phil]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

PV gunna try to make another long extended cool spring into May.  winter may be 'over' per-se but doesn't eliminate the chance at a cool and/or wet extended spring like what was it '22? or '21.  no?

Large scale picture somewhat resembles 2010. +AMM/-PMM and descending westerly shear under waning strong niño.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hopefully this bodes well for a quick transition 

Some of the 1950s niñas had a cool IO during their inception, but not sure about indo-pacific cooling (and the residual +IOD signature).

IIRC, 1999 was the only modern niña with a clean +IOD signature during its developmental stages.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

I've got to do a PHP and MySQL upgrade in the coming days. Forum might be up and down for a bit this weekend.

One of these days I'll containerize the place and put it on top of postgres, and these instance downtimes will be a thing of the past, but I dont make enough money to do that.

Probably a good time to do it.  98% of members will be out basking in the beautiful weather, and it will force a break for the remaining 2% who do nothing but complain about nice weather, or the timing of said nice weather.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Some of the 1950s niñas had a cool IO during their inception, but not sure about indo-pacific cooling (and residual +IOD signature).

1999 was the only modern niña with a clean +IOD signature during its developmental stages.

I have no clue about this stuff... but here is the current SSTA map compared to the same day in 2010. 

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is much stronger with the ridge over the north Pacific later in the run compared to the other models.   But did shift east quite a bit with the really cold air by day 10.   

Ugh.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Beautiful sunny day here with 50 degrees for the temp.  A lot of clouds in the sky but there seems to be a break parked right over my house.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have no clue about this stuff... but here is the current SSTA map compared to the same day in 2010. 

 

Close match. Of course everything is warmer today.

Biggest difference is the Indian Ocean/Indo-Pacific region. 2010 has the more classic pre-niña signature (warm IPWP) while 2024 is sort of doing its own thing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Probably a good time to do it.  98% of members will be out basking in the beautiful weather, and it will force a break for the remaining 2% who do nothing but complain about nice weather, or the timing of said nice weather.

The funny thing is the posters who claim to love nice weather usually sit inside posting about how nice it is all day while Andrew and I frolic outside making daisy chains.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Close match. Of course everything is warmer today.

Biggest difference is the Indian Ocean/Indo-Pacific region. 2010 has the more classic pre-niña signature (warm IPWP) while 2024 is sort of doing its own thing.

And good lord, we’re in for an apocalyptic hurricane season unless those Atlantic and west-IO SSTAs change dramatically, and soon.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The funny thing is the posters who claim to love nice weather usually sit inside posting about how nice it is all day while Andrew and I frolic outside making daisy chains.

This is completely false.    For starters you can be outside sipping a margarita on the deck and posting here on your phone.   And secondly... everyone seems to do fine enjoying snow and cold and posting about it simultaneously.

[Phil]

This summer is going to suck donkey balls. Fully expect it’ll be the hottest summer ever for the lower-48, and by a wide margin. Worst possible alignment of seasonal forcings.

Good chance there won’t be any cool departures to speak of, except maybe June.

 

[T-Town]

Ready. 

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Ready. 

nice office

[iFred]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

This summer is going to suck donkey balls. Fully expect it’ll be the hottest summer ever for the lower-48, and by a wide margin. Worst possible alignment of seasonal forcings.

Good chance there won’t be any cool departures to speak of, except maybe June.

 

Long range looked active for us, at least with a lot of moisture. If we're going to make smoke season a thing, it'd be nice to have some humidity and storms.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Long range looked active for us, at least with a lot of moisture. If we're going to make smoke season a thing, it'd be nice to have some humidity and storms.

Moisture/humidity and storms would cancel smoke season out pretty handily.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

This summer is going to suck donkey balls. Fully expect it’ll be the hottest summer ever for the lower-48, and by a wide margin. Worst possible alignment of seasonal forcings.

Good chance there won’t be any cool departures to speak of, except maybe June.

 

Well this sux, why in the hell anyone would love this is clinically insane.

[Cascadia_Wx]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

This summer is going to suck donkey balls. Fully expect it’ll be the hottest summer ever for the lower-48, and by a wide margin. Worst possible alignment of seasonal forcings.

Good chance there won’t be any cool departures to speak of, except maybe June.

 

How did summer 2010 work out for the lower 48 as a whole? It was wonderful out here.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Long range looked active for us, at least with a lot of moisture. If we're going to make smoke season a thing, it'd be nice to have some humidity and storms.

I never really appreciated how you guys were suffering w/rt smoke until last summer. Major eye-opener.

Hopefully that El Niño-forced hot/dry Canada pattern doesn’t recur this summer.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Moisture/humidity and storms would cancel smoke season out pretty handily.

Thunderstorms didn’t save us from it last summer. Afternoon storms would clear the air for the evening, but next morning the gunk would be back full force. Every time.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

I never really appreciated how you guys were suffering w/rt smoke until last summer. Major eye-opener.

Hopefully that El Niño-forced hot/dry Canada pattern doesn’t recur this summer.

As you have seen in person... most of summer is often smoke-free even out here.   We do better way better than places to the east across the intermountain west thanks to onshore flow.  

[Phishy Wx]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

This summer is going to suck donkey balls. Fully expect it’ll be the hottest summer ever for the lower-48, and by a wide margin. Worst possible alignment of seasonal forcings.

Good chance there won’t be any cool departures to speak of, except maybe June.

 

We're in the Light Orange!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Thunderstorms didn’t save us from it last summer. They would clear the air for the evening, but the next morning the gunk would be back full force. Every time.

That is different... the thunderstorms and rain there are not falling where the fires were located.   You were being fed smoke from much drier areas.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Thunderstorms didn’t save us from it last summer. They would clear the air for the evening, but the next morning the gunk would be back full force. Every time.

I understand it’s a continual source of surprise, but our dynamics out here are a little different than on the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

How did summer 2010 work out for the lower 48 as a whole? It was wonderful out here.

Continent-wide torching. You guys were the only cool spot.

I don’t think it’s a guarantee that will be the case this summer. But I hope I’m wrong.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I understand it’s a continual source of surprise, but our dynamics out here are a little different than on the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain.

I thought your storm patterns involved offshore ULLs? Figured that would draw smoke in, if anything.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Continent-wide torching. You guys were the only cool spot.

I don’t think it’s a guarantee that will be the case this summer. But I hope I’m wrong.

We had colder than normal water offshore that summer which made for an increased marine layer presence.    Its not like it was a rainy summer here like 2019 for example.   We went from mid-June through mid-September with only a few days with measureable precip.    I don't think the macro level models can be pick up on such things like marine layer persistence.  

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, Phil said:

I thought your storm patterns involved offshore ULLs? Figured that would draw smoke in, if anything.

Our smoke is so heavily dependent on fire location and time of year that it's hard to draw general conclusions. That pattern would be favorable for clearing smoke if the fires are in BC but unfavorable if the fires are in CA/southern OR. 

Thunderstorms between July 4 and Labor Day are nothing but trouble for fires IMO. 

 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As you have seen in person... most of summer is basically smoke-free even out here.   We do better way better than places to the east across the intermountain west thanks to onshore flow.  

I think my timing has been lucky as well. Caught a weak trough when I was there last summer.

Also in 2018 there was apparently a major smokefest that started a few days after I left. Was absolute perfection while I was there, but the pictures my family sent me afterwards might as well have been from another planet.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I thought your storm patterns involved offshore ULLs? Figured that would draw smoke in, if anything.

That’s assuming there’s smoke to begin with. Summers with anything even approaching an active wavetrain compared to the normal stagnant 4CH dominated pattern of the last ten years are usually pretty tolerable from a smoke perspective. 2019 had a plethora of thunderstorm/offshore ULL setups around here and it was one of our quietest recent fire seasons.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think my timing has been lucky as well. Caught a weak trough when I was there last summer.

Also in 2018 there was apparently a major smokefest that started a few days after I left. Was absolute perfection while I was there, but the pictures my family sent me afterwards might as well have been from another planet.

Yes... August of 2017 and 2018 were not good.    There was almost no smoke in 2019.  There was not much smoke during the JJA period the last 4 years either.   But September was more problematic in 2020 and 2022... even October in 2022.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ever since all of the changes to the Euro run time, it’s crazy how late the EPS spaghetti charts come out. I just checked my favorite site and the 06z Euro is still up there.

[Timmy Supercell]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Continent-wide torching. You guys were the only cool spot.

I don’t think it’s a guarantee that will be the case this summer. But I hope I’m wrong.

I remember looking up summer 2015 for this area and was surprised at the lack of big heat. Whereas the PNW was in hell that year.

Huntington WV ran cool departures Jul/Aug 2015. How much of the US torched that year? 

[T-Town]

46 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

nice office

I’ve thought about it. Easier just to work from the inside office that has a desk, chair, monitor, etc. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Still looking like a pretty nice torch on the 12Z Euro 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The funny thing is the posters who claim to love nice weather usually sit inside posting about how nice it is all day while Andrew and I frolic outside making daisy chains.

This is a video clip I need in my life.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

This is a video clip I need in my life.

I imagine a daisy chain of alternating daisies, downvote reacts, and vomit reacts.