TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: 8 hours without a post is pretty close to a record. Analogs? Not much to talk about... except lots of climo. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 If even half of this verifies it will be pretty crazy for the Twin Cities over the next 5 days. They might go from record low snow all winter to reaching their annual average in late March. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: If even half of this verifies it will be pretty crazy for the Twin Cities over the next 5 days. They might go from record low snow all winter to reaching their annual average in late March. Where is the Twin Cities on this map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Gorgeous morning for March Madness 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Where is the Twin Cities on this map? Do search on Google maps. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 35 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 8 hours without a post is pretty close to a record. Analogs? March 1949! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Where is the Twin Cities on this map? It's the 30.3" just West of where Wisconsin cuts into Minnesota. 6 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Gorgeous morning for March Madness A little different up here. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Looking ahead, here are the April, May, June and July anomalies forecasted by ECMWF's long range prediction model 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 And here are the JJA temperatures anomalies from the CFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said: Looking ahead, here are the April, May, June and July anomalies forecasted by ECMWF's long range prediction model Red! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 General sense seems to be warm spring and NORMALish summer!?!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunriver Snow Zone Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 13 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said: General sense seems to be warm spring and NORMALish summer!?!! Warm spring and normal summer sounds perfect to me. 2 Quote Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88" Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"! 23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 I wonder what those maps looked like in 2022... when we had a full Nina year and we were talking about 1999 or 2011 type summer on here. And then we ended up ridiculously warm and dry for 5 straight months. Summer seems to be warm regardless of ENSO or anything else lately. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted March 21 Author Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Gorgeous morning for March Madness Hell yeah! Some of the best 2 days of the year. 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I wonder what those maps looked like in 2022... when we had a full Nina year and we were talking about 1999 or 2011 type summer on here. And then we ended up ridiculously warm and dry for 5 straight months. Summer seems to be warm regardless of ENSO or anything else lately. That was a LONG dry spell. My first rain didn't come until Oct 22nd. Then I had snow 2 weeks later and a ton of tree damage due to trees still having foliage. Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, MossMan said: March 1949! 0 posts on the forum that month. Folks were pretty quiet. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Weekend looks decent on the ECMWF. Partly sunny Saturday and becoming mostly sunny on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 50s in the Seattle area. Deformation band on Saturday afternoon is up around the Canadian border per the ECMWF. This weekend will probably end up being much nicer than it seemed a few days ago when the models were much colder and wetter with even a chance at lowland snow. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Up to 54 here after a very mild low of 49. The next 3-4 days have gone from looking like a sort of chilly and active answer to our record breaking heat ridge, to a mildish and cloudy-ish purgatory. I guess the GFS wasn’t overcomplicating things when it decided to dig that cutoff offshore. 1 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Notice California continues to get a lot of rain on the 12z Euro. Good to see. Decent snows for the Cascades too, including the Washington Cascades which need it badly. 2 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 0 posts on the forum that month. Folks were pretty quiet. The Silent Generation. 1 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Nice to catch a bit of sunshine today. All of this green will look good with a soaking rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 12 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: Nice to catch a bit of sunshine today. All of this green will look good with a soaking rain. Totally agree. Very pleasant today. I guess climo is purgatory though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Wouldn't be March Madness without a school we've never heard of beating a tournament stalworth. Duquesne University over BYU! Eliminated 73% of brackets from perfection with one game! 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighHillsRunner Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Up to 54 here after a very mild low of 49. The next 3-4 days have gone from looking like a sort of chilly and active answer to our record breaking heat ridge, to a mildish and cloudy-ish purgatory. I guess the GFS wasn’t overcomplicating things when it decided to dig that cutoff offshore. Great morning out there - cloudy but still bright, not too warm. Models seem to be waffling a bit, but that Wed/Thur low looks fairly potent 3 Quote Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’ ”All models are wrong, some are useful.” -G. Box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 minute ago, RaleighHillsRunner said: Great morning out there - cloudy but still bright, not too warm. Models seem to be waffling a bit, but that Wed/Thur low looks fairly potent I’m hoping we can get some good mountain snows and cooler temps to close out the month, but the trend in the models right now seems to be to water down cooler weather once it gets within 3-4 days. 2 1 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 13 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: I'll say! How does this happen? Mixing in the lee of the Appalacians? Yes, downsloping off the appalachians warms/dries/deepens the boundary layer. Combine that with CAA, pressure rises, and springtime solar heating, and we can occasionally transfer momentum straight down from 500mb in extreme cases (usually in April). Yesterday was actually run of the mill for a downslope day. This is the reason extreme cold rarely makes it east of the apps. Not only is the low level cold neutered by the terrain, but it’s f**king impossible to decouple at night. The winds will rage nonstop, even under clear skies. Best overnight lows happen when the cold airmass has begun departing. And it’s also the reason summer “cold fronts” (lol) usually either stall at the Allegheny Front or simply become dry fronts east of the terrain, only dropping dew points but not temperatures. Which is welcome, but meh. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 13 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: There are plenty of years our warm and dry season ends with a stratiform rain event too, though. I’d say more often than not. I tend to notice petrichor most after 3-4 day+ warm/dry periods in the mid spring through early summer though, whether the rain is stratiform or convective. I think the smell has a lot to do with plants and the chemicals they are producing in response to rainfall, or perhaps more precisely how these latent chemicals react when exposed to water. I’d never heard that word until today. Is that what people mean when they say it “smells like rain”? I figured that fresh, earthy scent was just water in the air. But now that I think of it, I don’t usually smell it in the winter. But it’s always present in the summer. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Ozone has a distinct odor that I’ve only smelled after a barrage of close lightning strikes. Never smelled it ahead of a storm or even during most storms. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: I wonder what those maps looked like in 2022... when we had a full Nina year and we were talking about 1999 or 2011 type summer on here. And then we ended up ridiculously warm and dry for 5 straight months. Summer seems to be warm regardless of ENSO or anything else lately. In 2022 the euro seasonal projected a stout 4CH/death ridge centered over the intermountain west. Same with 2021. I think the difference in the models this year is because 2021 and 2022 had warm off-equator SSTAs (hence more convection in subtropics) while this year has (relatively) cool off-equator NPAC SSTAs, which constrains the ITCZ meridionally. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 13 minutes ago, Phil said: Ozone has a distinct odor that I’ve only smelled after a barrage of close lightning strikes. Never smelled it ahead of a storm or even during most storms. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 34 minutes ago, Phil said: Ozone has a distinct odor that I’ve only smelled after a barrage of close lightning strikes. Never smelled it ahead of a storm or even during most storms. I am a medical physicist and work with linear accelerators. When we decommissioned a machine in residency we tweaked the machine (removed safety precautions) to generate electron trees. This caused the room to be filled with ozone. A very metallic odor. 1 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 32 minutes ago, Phil said: In 2022 the euro seasonal projected a stout 4CH/death ridge centered over the intermountain west. Same with 2021. I think the difference in the models this year is because 2021 and 2022 had warm off-equator SSTAs (hence more convection in subtropics) while this year has (relatively) cool off-equator NPAC SSTAs, which constrains the ITCZ meridionally. There was lots of chatter on here about a cold summer in 2022. Instead it was the hottest summer ever... at least for SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 Chasing a ghost at this range... but 12Z ECMWF AI run shows a very similar set up to our recent warm spell late in the run. Centered just a little farther south. 2 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Chasing a ghost at this range... but 12Z ECMWF AI run shows a very similar set up to our recent warm spell late in the run. Centered just a little farther south. That trough better push out by April 8th 2 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, Phil said: I’d never heard that word until today. Is that what people mean when they say it “smells like rain”? I figured that fresh, earthy scent was just water in the air. But now that I think of it, I don’t usually smell it in the winter. But it’s always present in the summer. I think that's because the bacteria in the soil that produce the petrichor are more widespread in the summer. The fun part is when you can smell it before the rain actually starts, presumably because of outflow winds from the incoming rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighHillsRunner Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 27 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: I am a medical physicist and work with linear accelerators. When we decommissioned a machine in residency we tweaked the machine (removed safety precautions) to generate electron trees. This caused the room to be filled with ozone. A very metallic odor. This sounds dangerous and amazing all at the same time Quote Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’ ”All models are wrong, some are useful.” -G. Box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 There's 3 Jesses. @Jesse @Cascadia_Wx @CascadiaWx 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, Phil said: I’d never heard that word until today. Is that what people mean when they say it “smells like rain”? I figured that fresh, earthy scent was just water in the air. But now that I think of it, I don’t usually smell it in the winter. But it’s always present in the summer. It’s a great word and a great smell. But yeah I think it tends to happen during the warm season more, when the biosphere is awake. I always especially love the smell in the high deserts of Eastern OR when it’s mixed with a hint of sage. 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted March 21 Report Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, Phil said: I’d never heard that word until today. Is that what people mean when they say it “smells like rain”? I figured that fresh, earthy scent was just water in the air. But now that I think of it, I don’t usually smell it in the winter. But it’s always present in the summer. It’s a great word and a great smell. But yeah I think it tends to happen during the warm season more, when the biosphere is awake. I always especially love the smell in the high deserts of Eastern OR when it’s mixed with a hint of sage. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by SouthHillFrosty,
31 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by Sunriver Snow Zone,
12 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.