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Radar looks to be setting up north. 28.6°F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

As seasons transition I'm honoring those who serve the public good through service in law enforcement and fire & rescue. Acting as a shield between us and harm. Some giving their lives serving and

Pounding at DSM airport!! .3 to .4 on snowboards ,, probably can muster a wet inch before sunrise.

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Another Tropical Milestone........Epsilon is a major CAT3 hurricane out in the Atlantic, not bothering anyone, except the fish and maybe brushing Bermuda.  Expected to weaken considerably as it heads for Northern Europe.

Note: This is the 10th  Hurricane this season and the 5th time this has happened (1969, 1995, 2005, 2017 and 2020).

 

The latest:

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/0yJ0zKdURulH.C9XJd5ajA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTc4Ny4zNjg0MjEwNTI2MzE2/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/YuR7byburOP74OGTzmQ95g--~B/aD05MzU7dz0xMTQwO2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/miami_herald_mcclatchy_975/e71d7555bc101245997e3856e3f4bd59

 

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16 minutes ago, Niko said:

Looks like OKwx2k4 will be shocked, as he might see some possible snow moving in his area, along w very chilly conditions........

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2E-1-1.png?w=632

They're starting to think its highly possible now.

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So far tonight all the rain has gone south and north.  I may be fortunate just to get a half inch later.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro appears to be baby stepping towards GFS... (late weekend system)

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Radar lines up with last night's model solution of highest totals down by the state line. 2" or less here I come!

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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4 hours ago, Niko said:

Another Tropical Milestone........Epsilon is a major CAT3 hurricane out in the Atlantic, not bothering anyone, except the fish and maybe brushing Bermuda.  Expected to weaken considerably as it heads for Northern Europe.

Note: This is the 10th  Hurricane this season and the 5th time this has happened (1969, 1995, 2005, 2017 and 2020).

 

The latest:

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/0yJ0zKdURulH.C9XJd5ajA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTc4Ny4zNjg0MjEwNTI2MzE2/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/YuR7byburOP74OGTzmQ95g--~B/aD05MzU7dz0xMTQwO2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/miami_herald_mcclatchy_975/e71d7555bc101245997e3856e3f4bd59

 

The stadium appearance of the eye wall never gets old...enjoy!  Here is a short clip of the hurricane hunters entering the eye wall.  Bless these guys as they must have nerves of steel doing what they do best.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1319081639922860034

 

 

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Got awaken by several loud rumbles of thunder and heavy rain this morning.  My gutters are over flowing with water and I'm seeing reports of over 2" of rain so far in the southern burbs.  

Speaking of thunder, our local photographer captured this shot of a triple bolt that hit Trump Tower around 2:15am...this guy never seems to disappoint us with amazing photos.

1.jpg

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Radar South of here is very.... Inconclusive. I still have no idea what will happen here lol. I'm hoping the returns near Aberdeen will get up here but I doubt it.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Radar starting fill in up here. Let's hope I jinxed myself into higher totals. 28.6°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Some LR thoughts on this rainy and thundery morning...

1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said:

Radar starting fill in up here. Let's hope I jinxed myself into higher totals. 28.6°F.

Enjoy the powder today buddy....you've gotten more action this autumn in the snow dept than all of last winter in Ohio!  LOL...should be a banner cold season for you bud. 

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7 minutes ago, Tom said:

Some LR thoughts on this rainy and thundery morning...

Enjoy the powder today buddy....you've gotten more action this autumn in the snow dept than all of last winter in Ohio!  LOL...should be a banner cold season for you bud. 

Yes. So cold that I'm actually worried about suppression.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Some LR thoughts on this thundery and rainy morning...the latest JMA weeklies are in and they show a continuation of the BN temp pattern through the early part of November before a relaxation of the cold appears to be in the cards later in the 1st week of Nov.

 

Week 2 temp/precip...drier pattern overall...

 

Y202010.D2112_gl2.png

Y202010.D2112_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...temp/precip...the model seems to be building up cold in western Canada and bleeding into the Rockies/Upper MW whil the west & east coasts of the U.S. are warmer than normal and seasonal weather throughout the majority of our Sub.

Y202010.D2112_gl2.png

 

Y202010.D2112_gl0.png

 

 

When looking at the Northern Hemisphere 500mb maps for Week 2-4, what stands out to me is the impressive and long standing Scandinavian Ridge.  Dr. Judah Cohen has mentioned in his blog that if this block continues into November, it will have big implications on the Polar Vortex and could/should weaken it considerably.  As always, it's a wait and see what happens with this wild card atmospheric feature.

2.png

3.png

Lastly, our current state of the SST pattern continue to show the strengthening La Nina and a growing cold pool NW of Hawaii while warmer waters are beginning to "hug" western NAMER.  Doesn't that look like eye candy???  Interestingly, the recent run off the CFSv2 is showing this pattern to continue into November...

Y202010.D2112_gls.png

CFSv2.SST.20201021.202011.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

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It's absolutely pouring out there right now...been getting waves and waves of heavy rainfall.  I'm hearing of a lot of ponding on the roadways and highways causing traffic jams during the morning commute.  These rains should put a big dent into our deficit.

 

 

 

image.png

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro appears to be baby stepping towards GFS... (late weekend system)

and DMX notices it also---

The entire state will be back into the cold weather Friday through
much of next week. High temperatures Friday through Sunday will be
in the 30s and 40s. The biggest weather story for the weekend
continues to be the potent short wave that will be arriving Saturday
night into Sunday that may bring widespread accumulating snowfall to
Iowa. The greatest uncertainty is over southern Iowa where there is
a wide range in solutions regarding how much warm air will lift into
Iowa. The ECMWF solutions continue to be the most aggressive with the
warm air into Iowa and even the latest deterministic run now has
accumulating snowfall well into central Iowa.
This has the makings
of a well forced event with ample moisture overrunning Iowa and has
the potential to bring several inches of snow to parts of Iowa and
likely will warrant winter headlines.

Very cold air will follow for early next week as a long wave trough
digs into the Midwest allowing for 850 mb temperatures approaching
negative 10C to reach the region. This timeframe still has record
cold potential, especially if there is a fresh snow pack in
place. Cold high pressure will be ridging into the area for Monday
night though there is some hints that a stratus cloud deck could
be undercutting the ridge that would hold temperatures up a bit

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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GFS  keeps on pounding IA- E.NE for late wkend

 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z Ukie shares the wealth across the heartland...the ICON is also kicking out the SW energy quicker unlike the Euro's bias of a slower ejection.

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

sn10_acc.us_c.png

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Flakes are finally reaching the ground. 29.1°F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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This is some high ratio stuff. I haven't really had any appreciable rates so far and it's already accumulating decently. 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Found this page stumbling around on the net'

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=tls

Lots of info.  I personally like the NDFD Forecast Records (Tie or Break/Near) -https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/ndfd/ndfd.html

and this one-- pretty cool stuff

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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When I went to bed the rain bands were developing north and south of Cedar Rapids, but overnight the northern band sank south and then trained through Cedar Rapids.  I heard several good cells pass through with heavy rain and a bit of thunder.  I love the sound of heavy rain on the roof in the middle of the night.  I picked up 1.35".  I could get another inch this evening.

Sparky got screwed once again.  Stations near his location only got a half inch or less.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2.51" in the 8" at DSM -- lovely tipping bucket that is with ASOS had 2.01" with errors during the heaviest rain (it can't handle weather) -- which one do you think will be used in the climo?  automation at it's finest. ( 8" and ASOS are only 800' from each other)

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Convective sleet quite possible today here in the TC metro. All of this rain I've been hearing about over the last few days is going to stay mostly mixed precip now, which is good. I don't want the rain with the snowpack still around.  Still 7" officially otg at MSP as of the 2am report. 

 

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57 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

When I went to bed the rain bands were developing north and south of Cedar Rapids, but overnight the northern band sank south and then trained through Cedar Rapids.  I heard several good cells pass through with heavy rain and a bit of thunder.  I love the sound of heavy rain on the room in the middle of the night.  I picked up 1.35".  I could get another inch this evening.

Sparky got screwed once again.  Stations near his location only got a half inch or less.

Yeah it was a little lame and underwhelming though not to bad. Got around 0.70” overnight. The gauges varied just a bit on account of breezy winds during the heaviest downpour. Finally had a decent thunderstorm around 3:00am. The Quad Cities were in the heaviest band and CR. almost as heavy according to radar estimates. Hopefully I can score tonight. There is a slight risk over eastern Iowa as well. 
 

Nw. Ia. possibly has some thundersnow recently?

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53 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Convective sleet quite possible today here in the TC metro. All of this rain I've been hearing about over the last few days is going to stay mostly mixed precip now, which is good. I don't want the rain with the snowpack still around.  Still 7" officially otg at MSP as of the 2am report. 

 

Man winter came early for you! I’m hoping to get more yard and outdoor work done this afternoon before the cold arrives here. I won’t be ready for winter till the trees shed most of their leaves.

 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

The stadium appearance of the eye wall never gets old...enjoy!  Here is a short clip of the hurricane hunters entering the eye wall.  Bless these guys as they must have nerves of steel doing what they do best.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1319081639922860034

 

 

1.jpg

2.jpg

Excellent vid....thanks for sharing it!

These guys truly have an gutsy job.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

2.51" in the 8" at DSM -- lovely tipping bucket that is with ASOS had 2.01" with errors during the heaviest rain (it can't handle weather) -- which one do you think will be used in the climo?  automation at it's finest. ( 8" and ASOS are only 800' from each other)

Can those gauges be calibrated? The Davis brand can, which I did with mine, and it seems to be quite accurate now though sometimes it still isn’t. That’s why I have other gauges as I don’t fully trust electronic gauges. I use the Cocorahs style and go by those, then enter the correct amount on the Davis console if it isn’t already the same amount. Otherwise I love Davis Vantage Pro2 and they can handle rough wx.

 

 

 

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Currently, its at 48F under cloudy, dreary conditions. Skies should bright up later in the day w temps soaring into the 60s and even warmer tomorrow, possibly record high temps. Expected readings to climb into the 70s for Friday, maybe well into the 70s. Severe weather is likely though, as a sharp CF approaches my area. Temps nosedive thereafter.

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0.6" so far.

The system has sucked in a bunch of dry air, and everyone, including those forecasted to get jacked by this, is getting screwed. 30.2°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Local wx station is reporting a 2-day total of 2.62" of rain...I'll take it!  Just got back from a walk around the neighborhood and everything is soaked.  It's that quintessential autumn-like day with cloudy, dreary skies, cold and damp weather.  Currently 49F with calm winds.  It will be one of those days where we see 2 seasons as low 70's are in the grid for late this afternoon.  Hopefully skies clear up quicker than models show.

Didn't realize there was a Flood Advisory hoisted...

Quote

Flood Advisory


Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Chicago IL
735 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

ILC031-037-043-089-093-099-103-197-221430-
/O.CON.KLOT.FA.Y.0054.000000T0000Z-201022T1430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cook IL-De Kalb IL-DuPage IL-Kane IL-Kendall IL-La Salle IL-Lee IL-
Will IL-
735 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN DE KALB, NORTHERN LA SALLE, SOUTHEASTERN LEE, COOK,
DUPAGE, KANE, NORTHERN KENDALL AND NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTIES...

At 735 AM CDT, law enforcement reported minor flooding in flood
prone areas in Chicago, including under some viaducts. Additional
minor flooding has been reported on some area roadways. Between 1.5
and 3 inches of rain fell from last evening through daybreak. The
heavy rain has ended and will allow water to gradually subside.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Chicago, Aurora, Naperville, Elgin, Cicero, Arlington Heights,
  Evanston, Schaumburg, Bolingbrook, Palatine, Skokie, Des Plaines,
  Oak Lawn, Berwyn, Mount Prospect, Wheaton, Hoffman Estates, Oak
  Park, Downers Grove and Glenview.

 

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41 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Man winter came early for you! I’m hoping to get more yard and outdoor work done this afternoon before the cold arrives here. I won’t be ready for winter till the trees shed most of their leaves.

 

It's been a pretty good start so far! Good  luck getting the yardwork completed.  That's something I was unable to do. I fear what my lawn is going to look like in the Spring if I can get the remaining leaves up. 

 

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40 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Can those gauges be calibrated? The Davis brand can, which I did with mine, and it seems to be quite accurate now though sometimes it still isn’t. That’s why I have other gauges as I don’t fully trust electronic gauges. I use the Cocorahs style and go by those, then enter the correct amount on the Davis console if it isn’t already the same amount. Otherwise I love Davis Vantage Pro2 and they can handle rough wx.

 

 

 

They are maintained quarterly by Elec Techs with the NWS- however - NWS even admits that NO tipping bucket is a accurate as the olde' 8". Heavy rains, tipping buckets "spill" some of the water and off by 10-15%. It's really bad in the Winter when snow rations are high as the heated element in the AWPAG evaporates some of the liquid making snow rations look bad at most sites not manned/augmented with a CWO.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 minutes ago, MNTonka said:

Just had a flash of lightning and thunder here with sleet.  The sky is really strange looking right now. 

Crazy sky. Snowing like mad now here on the Minneapolis/Roseville line. I heard the thunder but didn't see the flash. Good stuff. 

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Just now, Stormgeek said:

Finally starting to snow here, although radar up this way is rather sad looking as of right now.

Pretty pathetic here too all around. Pixie dust is about as good as anyone can expect.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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HRRR really stating to show warm front struggling more and more to make it much past Polk Country -- (DSM)- shows a 20 degree spread in Polk Cty for much of this afternoon.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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