Scott26 Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 The next couple of days look interesting with a weak clipper moving across the area and some Lake Enhancement to go along with it. After the synoptic snows pass to the east a rather favorable LES snow event will set up for NE IL and NW Indiana. The 12Z NAM shows the band develop in Lake County, IL and slowly move SE and into NW Indiana. Eastern Cook/Will may be in line for a Lake Effect Snow Warning for 6 plus inches of pure Lake Effect. Even Lake County, IL may get in the band for a while and may need at least an Advisory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hi-res NAM favoring IL more. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hi-res NAM favoring IL more. http://models.weatherbell.com/hires/2014012012/chicago/hires_t_precip_chicago_12.png Interesting. I am very close to .25+ in east-central Cook. Could I possibly be looking at 6+ with this set up? Looks NAM is pretty favorable up this way. Exciting evening it looking like here. Hope that bands crushes me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Interesting. I am very close to .25+ in east-central Cook. Could I possibly be looking at 6+ with this set up? Looks NAM is pretty favorable up this way. Exciting evening it looking like here. Hope that bands crushes me.I think you have a good chance of getting slammed. City on south looks good for a possible 6 plus. Models have been shifting the heaviest LES west since yesterday. Now it looks like NE IL and far NW Indiana will be in the jackpot while further east in Indiana looks more uncertain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 LOT will probably put Cook under a watch on the next update. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Always nice to wake up to surprise snow potential. Is this supposed to be an afternoon-night event or a night-overnight event? Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 14z RAP at midnight. STL WRF Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Cook County put under a watch now. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL943 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAYAFTERNOON....A BAND OF INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERSOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...MOVING SLOWLY WEST TOWARDTHE FAR SOUTHWEST SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOWCOULD AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN COOK COUNTY FOR A TIME LATETONIGHT BEFORE PIVOTING STEADILY EASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY EARLYTUESDAY MORNING. THE BAND WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST ACROSS LAKE ANDPORTER COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BANDOF HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE LESS THAN 10 MILES WIDE...SOCONDITIONS WILL LIKELY VARY GREATLY OVER A VERY SHORT DISTANCE.ILZ014-202345-/O.EXB.KLOT.LE.A.0001.140121T0500Z-140121T1500Z/COOK-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHICAGO943 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAYMORNING.* TIMING...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECTAREAS NEAR THE LAKE AND INTO SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECTSNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER ISOLATED TOTALS INEXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE AND OVER SOUTHEASTCOOK COUNTY.* OTHER IMPACTS...IF THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MOVES INLANDINTO COOK COUNTY...THEN VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZEROAT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOURLIKELY NEAR THE LAKE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGEAMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OFSNOW CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUETO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$ Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 It looks like the synoptic snows tonight could give NE IL 2-3 inches with some lake enhancement for Lake and Cook county. The LES band originates near the IL/WI border and seems to remain fairly transient until it stalls in Southern Cook County. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a mesolow like the last LES event which shifts some heavier snow inland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice Call Scott! Yesterday this LES set up was looking very promising as the RGEM and other high rez models were picking up on it. Been watching this set up for a few days and new it would come into fruition as we got closer. That wave passing to the south sets up favorable winds out of the NNE. I would not be surprised if the LES pushes farther inland. Just look what happened with the NYE storm when counties as far as DuPage and even down to Kankakee got in on the LES. This set up looks very good and I believe there will be some lollipop totals in S Cook. ORD may even get 2-3" of pure lake effect after the arctic front snows. As is always the case, LES events are nowcast events so I'm sure we will be watching the radars tonight! Interesting, RGEM pulling the LES plume farther west in recent runs and now hits areas near the IL/WI border! Good signs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Update from Izzi. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ALL POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR ANINTENSE SINGLE BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THISEVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND PROPAGATING WEST TOWARD COOKCOUNTY BEFORE ROTATING EAST AROUND THE SOUTH RIM OF THE LAKE ACROSSLAKE AND THEN PORTER COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE WESTWARD TREND INTHE MODELS THE OTHER DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IS THE BAND ISEXPECTED TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...LIMITING RESIDENCE TIME IN ANY ONEAREA WHICH FAVORS MAX ACCUMS MORE IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE VERSUS THE1 TO 2 FT RANGE THAT LOOKED MORE POSSIBLE YESTERDAY. MAX SNOWFALLRATES WITHIN THE BAND COULD REACH 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...SO IT WOULDONLY TAKE 2 OR 3 HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA.WILL VERY LIKELY BE GOING WITH A WARNING FOR LAKE COUNTY INDIANA ANDPROBABLY COOK COUNTY ILLINOIS WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...THOUGHWOULD LIKE TO GET A LOOK A SOME MORE GUIDANCE BEFORE DECIDINGBETWEEN WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR COOK. PORTER COUNTY MAY NOT SEE THEHEAVY SNOW UNTIL MID TO LATE TUES MORNING SO COULD POTENTIALLY LEAVEWATCH THERE FOR ONE MORE CYCLE OR POSSIBLY UPGRADE TO WARNING THERETHIS AFTERNOON...WILL COORDINATE WITH IWX ON PORTER COUNTY HEADLINEBEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.IZZI Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Latest RPM shows the lake effect plume hitting eastern Lake/Cook county around 11:00pm for a few hours then moving eastward. ORD around 2.8" and Waukegan 2.5". Models tend to underdo Lake Effect snow events so I would not be surprised to even see ORD get 5-6" if it sets up just right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 12z Euro favoring Lake/Cook/DuPage counties early on from Midnight thru 6:00am tonight. Check out all that air piling up along the lakeshore. If this is a trend, they may put Lake County into some sort of an advisory or watch as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 LES did get into Dupage county last go around so we can always hope it does so again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 The RAP seems to be wanting to shift the LES band further SE the last 3 runs or so. Still a pretty good hit for the south side of the city, but would be nothing further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 RAP doesn't do a good job with meso scale events... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 RAP doesn't do a good job with meso scale events...True... It's actually not even that good of a short range model. We'll see about this one. LES events always have huge bust potential especially on this side of the lake. Hopefully someone on this side of the Lake will get slammed tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 LES Warning now. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Actually Scott, 16z RAP has the lake effect plume targeting NE IL around 1:00am through 4:00am (that was the last image available this run and still showing snow). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 LES Warning now.Two times in one winter. Very impressive! They went with an advisory for Will also... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow, LOT going with 6-12" for eastern Cook and localized 12" totals! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Will see. ORD prob miss out on most and Midway prob get at least several inches. RAP last few runs seem to be inching east so it could be a trend again to go back east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z 4km NAM targeting SE Cook/Lake County Indiana as epicenter. Still showing some decent snows in northern Cook. Snow ratios are really high with Lake Effect, probable close to 25:1 in this type of environment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Radar starting to get active upstream. Hope to get some nice fluff out of this and maybe over-achieve. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Temps are starting to tumble, down to 29F with winds out of the NNE at 8mph. I hope that lake effect snow band can wobble a little farther west to hit some parts of N Cook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 You can see the beginning of the Lake Effect Plume already showing up in the northern parts of Lake Michigan... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Tom, nice looking plume forming. Hope it really ramp up overnight to a major dump for someone in our area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looking at radar so far it seems qpf is farther north.....any thoughts on this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Updated 20z RAP seems to be farther west with the LES. Seems to keep it on this side of the lake till 14z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 What I'm noticing is if that wave is farther north, then the winds will veer more easterly, therefore more LES can be delivered into NE IL. On the other hand, if it were to go farther south, than the winds would be more northerly. Tony, you brought up a good point and the precip seems farther north and that would lead us to believe the wave is traveling farther north and winds may end up veering more easterly in result. Should start snowing pretty good in Cook country around 9:00pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 pretty good fluff flying around at the moment here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 I bet cha a shiny new dime, LaPorte County gets the brunt of this... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just started snowing lightly over here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 I am currently seeing light snow and starting to whiten up everything. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Interesting, 18z GFS has a .20qpf blob in NE IL over N Cook/S Lake... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/ifps/TotalSnow/TotalSnow_Fcst.png This came out between 2-3pm. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Interesting, 18z GFS has a .20qpf blob in NE IL over N Cook/S Lake...I was just about to post this. The global models at this point are likely not the preferred models, but it's interesting nevertheless. The GFS really Lake enhances the moisture and even has the LES band hanging around for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 Returns are looking good for parts of MI as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 There's been sporadic -SN here in Racine, but probably only 0.2-0.3" so far. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 20, 2014 Report Share Posted January 20, 2014 LOT... AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES...THE RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS/RISING INVERSIONHEIGHTS AND IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN ANIMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEAR THESOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE. ALL LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE FORECAST TOBE NEAR THE UPPER ECHELONS OF FAVORABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE LAKEINDUCED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS. BESTDENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAY BE A BIT LOWER THAN I`D LIKE TO SEE ANDPERHAPS A BIT BELOW CLOUD DECK...BUT THAT`S ALSO ASSUMING FORECASTSOUNDINGS ARE REPRESENTATIVES OF LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS WITHIN THELES SNOW BAND...WHICH SOME STUDIES HAVE SHOWN IS NOT THE CASE. GIVENALL OF THE ABOVE SUSPECT AN INTENSE SINGLE BAND WILL DEVELOPSOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE LAKE AND COME ONSHORE INTO COOKCO AROUND OR JUST BEYOND 06Z AND MEANDER AROUND NE IL OVERNIGHTBEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NW INDY TUES MORNING...THEN PROGRESSINGEAST FROM THERE. SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES PER HOUR AREEXPECTED WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE BAND...WHICH WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE5-10MI WIDE...WHICH OF COURSE WILL LEAD TO THE TYPICAL WIDELYVARYING SNOWFALL TOTALS. BEST GUESS WOULD BE FOR TOTALS IN THE 6-12INCH RANGE OVER EASTERN COOK AND NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE AND PROBABLYPORTER COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED MAX TOTALS OF UP TO A FOOT AND A HALFPOSSIBLE IF THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE BAND IS HIGH IN ANY ONE GIVENPOINT. HAVE OPTED TO HANG ONTO THE WATCH FOR PORTER DUE TO THE LATERONSET AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY. ALSO NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN HOWFAR INLAND THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PENETRATE...PAST CASES HAVE SEENWARNING LEVEL SNOWS REACH EASTERN WILL COUNTY BEFORE AND THAT IS ADISTINCT POSSIBILITY BUT FELT MORE COMFORTABLE STARTING WITH ANADVISORY THERE. NORTHERN JASPER AND POSSIBLY NEWTON MAY NEED ANADVISORY EVENTUALLY TOO...BUT THIS ALSO CAN BE ASSESSED BY THEEVENING OR NIGHT SHIFT. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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