Jesse Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 Both more near term, and through to the 5th or so of Sept., I'd say the potential is there for an increasingly more meridional type of patterning. Just how deep the main colder air element of this patterning is, being in question at this seasonal point looked at more in particularly where considering just how exaggerated that pattern works out to be. @ Beyond Sept. 3rd, my expectation is that main colder air mass will be in general recession more northward. This with some stronger movement of cold more eastward post the 5th and through to the 8th or 9th, before slacking off steadily through to 14th or so .. lending to some amount of more meridional setup, and so trough-generation. If focused progressively more northward. With these ideas, where regarding later Sept., new and fresh colder air beginning - per my estimation, to spread progressively more south again, after the 16th, and if at a more stepped up pace through the 23rd of so. When a next increasingly more meridional patterning should begin. The main question at that point, being just where what "troughing" drops. .... Depth of cold, along with more general pattern evolution (shift, more longitudinal.), being the mains questions here. Sounds like you are calling for a fairly troughy September for the west? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 -.. yeh. Basically, when and where cold is moving more slowly east, and if again, it drops in the right places, larger picture more longitudinally. And, stores of cold are in place to a decent extent. .. Fair chance certainly, where considering both of these ideas. 1 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 Pretty insane. If we are basing this off of astronomical summer (June 22 to September 21) it will be interesting to see if these records hold with the upcoming cool troughing. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/display_special_product_versions.php?sid=pqr&pil=rer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 Pretty insane. If we are basing this off of astronomical summer (June 22 to September 21) it will be interesting to see if these records hold with the upcoming cool troughing. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/display_special_product_versions.php?sid=pqr&pil=rer And someone mocked 2004 and 2009 as analogs. Worked out wonderfully and you were wrong to mock... as usual. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 94/59 so far today. DP is 50 though so it is pretty tolerable. Tomorrow the last 90+ day of 2014? I can dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 Hottest ever? Settle down. September isn't going to be hot. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 Settle down. September isn't going to be hot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 Settle down. September isn't going to be hot. I've been meaning to ask you to perhaps give me a run down on why lows have run so consistently warm this summer. I want to think the record warm North Pacific SSTs have something to do with it. Sans last year I have never seen a summer in my life that deviates from the norm so consistently as far as lows are concerned. Past records corroborate how unusual the last few months have been. Seems like every time we have gotten hot lows have warmed into the 60s. Oftentimes during normal years we can go through entire heatwaves with lows in the 50s throughout (an aspect of our climate that I enjoy personally). What has been so different the last two summers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 You're the only one who's been wigging out about it. The progression has been that of one which probably supports more troughing deeper into the month. Even with that, this September has never seemed like it would be scorcher. I'd still say at this point there's a better than bad chance it will finish above average. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 Settle down. September isn't going to be hot. Hybrid of 2002, 2004, and 2009 would be nice. 2002 and 2009 were particularly nice. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 You're the only one who's been wigging out about it. The progression has been that of one which probably supports more troughing deeper into the month. Even with that, this September has never seemed like it would be scorcher. I'd still say at this point there's a better than bad chance it will finish above average. I have never seen someone complain so much about what has been an insanely pleasant summer with a notable lack of extreme heat and gorgeous evenings. He can be pounded with rain and cold for 9 months and never complain once... but give him 8 weeks of pleasant weather and its like his fingernails are being ripped off one at a time. He is so wrapped around the axle about September. It starts in April each year and builds over the summer until its all he can think about. And then in 4 weeks its all over! Pot calling the kettle black I know... but my God. The last 3 summers have been so pleasant. And summer is over in 3 months anyways. So if you hate it so much... just wait it out until we get back to 9 months of rain and cold. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 I've been meaning to ask you to perhaps give me a run down on why lows have run so consistently warm this summer. I want to think the record warm North Pacific SSTs have something to do with it. Sans last year I have never seen a summer in my life that deviates from the norm so consistently as far as lows are concerned. Past records corroborate how unusual the last few months have been. Seems like every time we have gotten hot lows have warmed into the 60s. Oftentimes during normal years we can go through entire heatwaves with lows in the 50s throughout (an aspect of our climate that I enjoy personally). What has been so different the last two summers? If you're looking for a SST-related answer, you first must find a physical conduit to make that happen. I've seen nothing that actually ties them in a tangible fashion aside from those living on the immediate coastline. Even then I can tell you this, the temperature dropped a good five degrees to 58 as we crossed the Astoria/Megler bridge last weekend just like it has during any other summer regardless of how orange life may be. The last two summers have featured little in the way of sharp ridging with strong subsidence focused directly overhead, hence the lack of adiabatic drying and such accompanying the heat. This has left us with very persistent periods of being on the return side of a strong anti-cyclone with copious amounts of mid level moisture. Couple that with the unusual pattern last August/September and things look crooked. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 If you're looking for a SST-related answer, you first must find a physical conduit to make that happen. I've seen nothing that actually ties them in a tangible fashion aside from those living on the immediate coastline. Even then I can tell you this, the temperature dropped a good five degrees to 58 as we crossed the Astoria/Megler bridge last weekend just like it has during any other summer regardless of how orange life may be. The last two summers have featured little in the way of sharp ridging with strong subsidence focused directly overhead, hence the lack of adiabatic drying and such accompanying the heat. This has left us with very persistent periods of being on the return side of a strong anti-cyclone with copious amounts of mid level moisture. Couple that with the unusual pattern last August/September and things look crooked. Include 2012 in there as well... very few flow reversals from July-Sept. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 If you're looking for a SST-related answer, you first must find a physical conduit to make that happen. I've seen nothing that actually ties them in a tangible fashion aside from those living on the immediate coastline. Even then I can tell you this, the temperature dropped a good five degrees to 58 as we crossed the Astoria/Megler bridge last weekend just like it has during any other summer regardless of how orange life may be. The last two summers have featured little in the way of sharp ridging with strong subsidence focused directly overhead, hence the lack of adiabatic drying and such accompanying the heat. This has left us with very persistent periods of being on the return side of a strong anti-cyclone with copious amounts of mid level moisture. Couple that with the unusual pattern last August/September and things look crooked. Fantastic explanation. Thank you. It feels like the patterns have been pretty meandering without a lot of focus. We generally seem to have more up and down at 500mb even in the summer than we have seen lately. Or is it just me? I mean we had the late-July trough but besides that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 I have never seen someone complain so much about what has been an insanely pleasant summer with a notable lack of extreme heat and gorgeous evenings. He can be pounded with rain and cold for 9 months and never complain once... but give him 8 weeks of pleasant weather and its like his fingernails are being ripped off one at a time. He is so wrapped around the axle about September. It starts in April each year and builds over the summer until its all he can think about. And then in 4 weeks its all over! Pot calling the kettle black I know... but my God. The last 3 summers have been so pleasant. And summer is over in 3 months anyways. So if you hate it so much... just wait it out until we get back to 9 months of rain and cold. It's just nice to not have to worry. And this goes for both of you. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 It's just nice to not have to worry. And this goes for both of you. You are the first nihilistic buddhist I have ever met. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Fantastic explanation. Thank you. It feels like the patterns have been pretty meandering without a lot of focus. We generally seem to have more up and down at 500mb even in the summer than we have seen lately. Or is it just me? I mean we had the late-July trough but besides that... Last week's and last weekend's troughs were actually fairly dynamic as well. Kind of a hybrid between a typical summer trough and a fall-like inside slider pattern, just happened to turn out fairly benign. Funny thing is, even with the fall-like nature of the pattern right now the flow is still flat which inhibited the formation of a good thermal trough/thermal gradient. This kept any meaningful offshore flow from developing and allowed good dew point recoveries, hence the 63 this morning at PDX. It's just been one perfect storm after another... But overall repetition has been the theme. Goes in line with what has been a theme of persistence for the better part of the last 4-5 years. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 You are the first nihilistic buddhist I have ever met. Someday I will have two feet of snow on the ground and someday PDX will hit 108. Take the good with the good. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Someday I will have two feet of snow on the ground and someday PDX will hit 108. Take the good with the good.But our glaciers are melting and the world is ending. Worrying about it will change China's behavior. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 ENSO has followed 2009 almost exactly so far this year... coming up from cool neutral to start the year to warm neutral by summer. The MEI index in the summer of 2009 was around .90 and in 2014 its been around .85 which is about as close as you can get. The SSTA maps from the summer of 2009 look very similar to 2014. And my ideas on this summer going in... played out exactly as I thought. Hoping to depart from 2009 in October and end up close to ENSO neutral this year. The winter of 2009-10 was way too dreary. Neutral worked great in 2013-14. Lots of dry breaks... in fact it only rained on 50% of the days here. Trust me, it won't be close. El Nino was already well underway at this time in 2009, whereas anomalies are really struggling to even get to +0.5c thus far this year. It's looking like a weak Nino may be the cap this year, and ENSO neutral is very possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Last week's and last weekend's troughs were actually fairly dynamic as well. Kind of a hybrid between a typical summer trough and a fall-like inside slider pattern, just happened to turn out fairly benign. Funny thing is, even with the fall-like nature of the pattern right now the flow is still flat which inhibited the formation of a good thermal trough/thermal gradient. This kept any meaningful offshore flow from developing and allowed good dew point recoveries, hence the 63 this morning at PDX. It's just been one perfect storm after another... But overall repetition has been the theme. Goes in line with what has been a theme of persistence for the better part of the last 4-5 years. What mechanisms are keeping the flow so flat? I have been thinking the same thing the last few days. Given the nature of the troughs last week and this weekend we should be seeing dry offshore flow at the moment. We are seeing a little bit of east wind out here but nothing really notable. I don't think the east wind has even surfaced at TTD the last week. The progression of the last week or so has actually gone completely differently than I expected, at least at the surface. Hence why I'm digging for answers a little harder right now. Looking at the 500mb maps the last 7 days you would expect far different results at PDX for instance than what has actually played out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 But our glaciers are melting and the world is ending. Worrying about it will change China's behavior. Let em' melt. What good are they anyway? You can't build a Starbucks on glacier. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Someday I will have two feet of snow on the ground and someday PDX will hit 108. Take the good with the good. But will they ever hit -4? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Let em' melt. What good are they anyway? You can't build a Starbucks on glacier. Plus... we will go back into an ice age soon enough geologically speaking and this entire region will be buried in miles of ice. Jim and Jesse's dream. If only they were born 10,000 years later! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 What mechanisms are keeping the flow so flat? I have been thinking the same thing the last few days. Given the nature of the troughs last week and this weekend we should be seeing dry offshore flow at the moment. We are seeing a little bit of east wind out here but nothing really notable. I don't think the east wind has even surfaced at TTD the last week. The progression of the last week or so has actually gone completely differently than I expected, at least at the surface. Hence why I'm digging for answers a little harder right now. Looking at the 500mb maps the last 7 days you would expect far different results at PDX for instance than what has actually played out. That's a question for Phil or Dr. Phil or Oprah. 500mb forcing is an acronym-filled hell that is above my pay grade. As for the lack of surface gradients, it's directly tied to the sharpness of the pattern. As for the last seven days, what were you expecting? Friday was the only day that surprised me, but given the dry nature of the trough it wasn't too surprising our recoveries were so quick. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 But will they ever hit -4? Someday. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 That's a question for Phil or Dr. Phil or Oprah. 500mb forcing is an acronym-filled hell that is above my pay grade. As for the lack of surface gradients, it's directly tied to the sharpness of the pattern. As for the last seven days, what were you expecting? Friday was the only day that surprised me, but given the dry nature of the trough it wasn't too surprising our recoveries were so quick. Basically just more offshore flow and cooler low temperatures. I guess an actual pattern change considering the 500mb configuration changed so much in that period. Temperature profiles haven't been much different than the weeks prior, really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Trust me, it won't be close. El Nino was already well underway at this time in 2009, whereas anomalies are really struggling to even get to +0.5c thus far this year. It's looking like a weak Nino may be the cap this year, and ENSO neutral is very possible. How'd the run go? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Basically just more offshore flow and cooler low temperatures. Looked like we were primed for it until the models settled on the secondary trough on Sunday. Kept the pattern progressive but still rather warm inland. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Looked like we were primed for it until the models settled on the secondary trough on Sunday. Kept the pattern progressive but still rather warm. Ah ha. I thought it had something to do with that. Things have been actually running a lot cooler, relatively, east of the Cascades the last week. A sign of the changing times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Ah ha. I thought it had something to do with that. Things have been actually running a lot cooler, relatively, east of the Cascades the last week. A sign of the changing times. The thermal gradient is definitely relaxing, as it should come late August. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Good reading from Scott Sistek at KOMO: Summer of 2014 warmer than 2009... I could not have scripted this summer better. http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/2014-going-to-end-up-as-much-hotter-summer-in-Seattle-than-2009-272596391.html Fall and winter thoughts... http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/A-new-month-a-renewed-forecast-for-mild-dry-winter-for-Seattle-272754731.html Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 I predict that we have another round of warm and somewhat humid weather through the middle and end of September. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 The thermal gradient is definitely relaxing, as it should come late August.Seems that PDX's dewpoints have dropped into the 40s. Is drier air finally breaking through or will dps likely recover again as we head toward evening? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 How'd the run go? Running and weather was good, I did about 19.8 miles. The traffic around Mist was terrible on Saturday morning, though. We ended up sitting in one spot for 90 minutes until we finally ended up taking a detour all the way past Astoria. Organizers need to get their collective together next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 I very much doubt a 2009-10 type winter.What are you thinking, as far as winter is concerned? I have a hunch, but I'm going to wait a bit longer before jumping on the bandwagon, as I'm still waiting for a few pieces of the puzzle to come together Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Seems that PDX's dewpoints have dropped into the 40s. Is drier air finally breaking through or will dps likely recover again as we head toward evening? Dps always will recover during the evening as things decouple. How much remains to be seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Southerly flow.Maybe in October. September looks like a dry month to me, at least in the PNW. The next few weeks (at least) look like blowtorch in my area...if I stop posting it's because I've been locked up Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Good reading from Scott Sistek at KOMO: Summer of 2014 warmer than 2009... I could not have scripted this summer better. http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/2014-going-to-end-up-as-much-hotter-summer-in-Seattle-than-2009-272596391.html Fall and winter thoughts... http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/A-new-month-a-renewed-forecast-for-mild-dry-winter-for-Seattle-272754731.htmlI'm not surprised. We are having the warmest summer in Seattle cause this is the year I get to live in Seattle during the summer. I have ******* terrible luck. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 27, 2014 Report Share Posted August 27, 2014 Dps always will recover during the evening as things decouple. How much remains to be seen.Must be a western US phenomenon w/ dry air aloft. Dewpoints here always peak during the afternoon Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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