December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Jbolin said:

Just got my COVID test result back after feeling "funky" for the past week, (Positive for COVID) 

I am shocked that I'm positive considering I have been working from home since early March, have groceries/other items delivered, no family or friends contact, constantly washing hands, etc. 

Started to feel achy/lethargic last Sunday, appetite waned the next day, periodic fever just north of 102F, occasional vomiting and tired, tired, tired. 

This sucks and I'm a little pissed that despite my best efforts to protect myself I still contracted this virus. 

My presence will be limited for the foreseeable future. 

Be smart guys, PLEASE don't take unnecessary risks, I'll see ya when I see ya. 

Take care

Well that sucks... and shows how easily this is transmitted.    

Hopefully you begin the road to recovery soon.  

[jakerepp]

2 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Just got my COVID test result back after feeling "funky" for the past week, (Positive for COVID) 

I am shocked that I'm positive considering I have been working from home since early March, have groceries/other items delivered, no family or friends contact, constantly washing hands, etc. 

Started to feel achy/lethargic last Sunday, appetite waned the next day, periodic fever just north of 102F, occasional vomiting and tired, tired, tired. 

This sucks and I'm a little pissed that despite my best efforts to protect myself I still contracted this virus. 

My presence will be limited for the foreseeable future. 

Be smart guys, PLEASE don't take unnecessary risks, I'll see ya when I see ya. 

Take care

Best wishes to you for a speedy recovery.

Hopefully the models will continue trending in the right direction and you are well enough to enjoy the goodies WHEN they come!

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Just got my COVID test result back after feeling "funky" for the past week, (Positive for COVID) 

I am shocked that I'm positive considering I have been working from home since early March, have groceries/other items delivered, no family or friends contact, constantly washing hands, etc. 

Started to feel achy/lethargic last Sunday, appetite waned the next day, periodic fever just north of 102F, occasional vomiting and tired, tired, tired. 

This sucks and I'm a little pissed that despite my best efforts to protect myself I still contracted this virus. 

My presence will be limited for the foreseeable future. 

Be smart guys, PLEASE don't take unnecessary risks, I'll see ya when I see ya. 

Take care

Hope you feel better soon!

Snow/cold is more enjoyable when you’re healthy!

[Jesse]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Feel better soon. This thing is incredibly contagious. One of the delivery folks must have had it. 

I keep worrying one of the workers who put together the plastic bubble I've been living in the last eight and a half months might have had it.

[FroYoBro]

13 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Just got my COVID test result back after feeling "funky" for the past week, (Positive for COVID) 

I am shocked that I'm positive considering I have been working from home since early March, have groceries/other items delivered, no family or friends contact, constantly washing hands, etc. 

Started to feel achy/lethargic last Sunday, appetite waned the next day, periodic fever just north of 102F, occasional vomiting and tired, tired, tired. 

This sucks and I'm a little pissed that despite my best efforts to protect myself I still contracted this virus. 

My presence will be limited for the foreseeable future. 

Be smart guys, PLEASE don't take unnecessary risks, I'll see ya when I see ya. 

Take care

Take it easy. Hope you get over it quickly! 

[Deweydog]

Tora Tora Tora!!!

[Phil]

10 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I have mentioned this a lot, but I think that what these computer models (or at least the interpretation of them by WB, WM, Tropical Tidbits, etc.,) think is a normal temperature clearly is not.  For example, when I look at the city charts for the EPS, the last few days it has shown Wenatchee (closest city to where I live) having highs generally in the mid 30's.  And it shows decent snows during that time.  That is right about average for Wenatchee.  But when you look at the EPS maps, it shows us absolutely blowtorching.  850 temps, and 2m temps are WAY above normal.  But if that were true, Wenatchee would have highs in the upper 40's, and there would be no snowfall at all.

So the computer thinks that Wenatchee will have highs in the mid 30's with snow, but it also thinks that mid 30's is way above normal.  So I think the 850 anomaly maps and 2m anomaly maps are pretty worthless.

Are you looking at 850mb temperatures?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I have mentioned this a lot, but I think that what these computer models (or at least the interpretation of them by WB, WM, Tropical Tidbits, etc.,) think is a normal temperature clearly is not.  For example, when I look at the city charts for the EPS, the last few days it has shown Wenatchee (closest city to where I live) having highs generally in the mid 30's.  And it shows decent snows during that time.  That is right about average for Wenatchee.  But when you look at the EPS maps, it shows us absolutely blowtorching.  850 temps, and 2m temps are WAY above normal.  But if that were true, Wenatchee would have highs in the upper 40's, and there would be no snowfall at all.

So the computer thinks that Wenatchee will have highs in the mid 30's with snow, but it also thinks that mid 30's is way above normal.  So I think the 850 anomaly maps and 2m anomaly maps are pretty worthless.

 

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Are you looking at 850mb temperatures?

Both, though I don't know what "normal" 850's are for this area, unlike 2m temps.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a prolonged period of steady light rain is in store for us up here through late day tomorrow. Likely 1-2” of rain most places. But probably more like 3-6” in the upslope areas. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Not bad. Decent even.

 

 

26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Not bad. Decent even.

 

Ensemble mean was better too than the last 2 runs.  

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

Both, though I don't know what "normal" 850's are for this area, unlike 2m temps.

Its pointless to look at 2m temps on the EPS in the mid and long range... snow totals too. 

I just use it for pattern trends and strong signals in the long range... warm or cold.

[Phil]

Poor Tim

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Poor Tim

Its winter dude... pretty normal stuff.    My sons would like more snow in the mountains so they are happy.

And there will be quite a few breaks between rain events this week.    Not bad at all.  

[jakerepp]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Poor Tim

I don't know why, but 'Locations: Tim' cracked me up. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its pointless to look at 2m temps on the EPS in the mid and long range... snow totals too. 

I just use it for pattern trends and strong signals in the long range... warm or cold.

I definitely don't take those numbers literally either, same with the operational runs in the long range.  But my point is that what the models think is normal, is really not, regardless of how accurate the forecasts are.  

[Deweydog]

Euro looks seasonable!

[Jesse]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Euro looks seasonable!

New climate seasonable or old climate seasonable?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

45F with some clouds.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

New climate seasonable or old climate seasonable?

Both?

[MossMan]

Trending the wrong way towards Christmas...Except for that little Jim member down there. 

[Jesse]

12z Euro was way worse than the 00z run for mountain snow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well at least Cyberpunk comes out on Wednesday evening...

[MossMan]

Perhaps we will still have a little Christmas morning miracle 2017 style. 

[FroYoBro]

14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Well at least Cyberpunk comes out on Wednesday evening...

I think I need to upgrade my graphics card before I buy this game. Looks pretty intense for the requirements. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

I don't know why, but 'Locations: Tim' cracked me up. 

I have all ur locations bookmarked. 

[Phil]

Basically a NWS app, but with extra bells and whistles. Has NWS forecasts, AFDs, satellite views, etc.

Easiest way I can learn about the microclimates out there is to track them daily via point and click. So it’s the perfect app.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I have all ur locations bookmarked. 

You know where I live?!?!?

[Deweydog]

Creepy.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

28 minutes ago, Jesse said:

12z Euro was way worse than the 00z run for mountain snow.

Worse for Oregon, definitely.  About the same for Washington though, in fact possibly slightly better.  Worse in Oregon mainly due to much less qpf.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Creepy.

If what Chrissy says about me is true, you’d better watch your back.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Worse for Oregon, definitely.  About the same for Washington though, in fact possibly slightly better.  Worse in Oregon mainly due to much less qpf.

Somewhat flatter flow/more poleward jets across the WHEM overall. Tiny change, but it can matter in theory.

[Jesse]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I have all ur locations bookmarked. 

Not mine.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

If what Chrissy says about me is true, you’d better watch your back.

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Worse for Oregon, definitely.  About the same for Washington though, in fact possibly slightly better.  Worse in Oregon mainly due to much less qpf.

I was thinking lack of precip was probably the main driver of that. Just 2" for Portland through day 10 compared to over 4" on last night's run IIRC.

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That's not Phil. I don't see his parents' mini van.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

17 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I think I need to upgrade my graphics card before I buy this game. Looks pretty intense for the requirements. 

The ray-tracing is nice but not necessary & you can get a gtx 1660 saving for a couple months in some cases. And on my small, 1080p monitor, I won't notice much of a difference.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Not mine.

Not yet.

[ShawniganLake]

0.22” of rain this morning.  Feeling more December like 🌧 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

That's not Phil. I don't see his parents' mini van.

The day you catch me driving a minivan is the day the sequel to January 1950 begins.

I drive a 2011 Acura. Hopefully not for much longer.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Not a bad looking EPS run.  Very similar to last nights run, except a bit more ridge amplification at the end of the run.  Later today, the weeklies come out.  Will Ventrice and his IBM computer be right and show a warm Christmas week?  Or will the weeklies continue to show what they have been showing?  We shall see.