Tom Posted February 13, 2014 Report Share Posted February 13, 2014 CFS backing off dramatically on the warm up next week in the Midwest/GL Region...makes sense since that has been the pattern this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 The system next Fri/Sat has so much potential to become a blockbuster...very dynamic system. It looks like it may even go neg tilt. Lot's of time to watch this but this is most likely going to be a major storm with a strong jet stream and ample moisture from a wide open Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoToSeattle Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like the ORD high was 31, that means the potential exists for a 17 day streak of below freezing when it finally warms up next Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 The system next Fri/Sat has so much potential to become a blockbuster...very dynamic system. It looks like it may even go neg tilt. Lot's of time to watch this but this is most likely going to be a major storm with a strong jet stream and ample moisture from a wide open Gulf.Gary lezak mentioned that's the storm to watch in his blog this morning. I'm hoping that storm has central plains written all over it, according to the LRC we should see a transition to a southwesterly flow around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Tom you holding out hope that we get in on the action with snow instead of rain for next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Just for some kicks, here's the 18z GFS fantasy-land (123-384hr) roundup:-Has the warmth (upper 30s-low 50s) sticking around from 2/18-2/24-Big cold returns 2/26-1002mb low tracks through Central Indiana at 372hr, strengthening to a 994mb low in extreme NE MI at 384hr. Dumps a foot of snow in this area.This has been your fantasy land roundup. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 As much as it hurts me to say this, I think N IL/N IN see rain with next weekends system. However, we will have several more chances for snow storms this month and into March. You can't win them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 ORD just hit 32F for the 1st time since Jan 30th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like the ORD high was 31, that means the potential exists for a 17 day streak of below freezing when it finally warms up next Monday. I think Midway made it to 32°. Of course that's not the official station anymore. High of 30° here. Lost 1" of snow depth since Monday. Looking like a freezing rain situation with temps above freezing on Monday. Skilling's 7 day forecast. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 As much as it hurts me to say this, I think N IL/N IN see rain with next weekends system. However, we will have several more chances for snow storms this month and into March. You can't win them all.I just want to win one! I must say gfs has been showing some pretty good cold in the extended going into March. I would say spring has a good chance of being pretty volatile around these parts, that's just my prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Gabel, the Plains may have their fair share of winter storms during the next 4-6 weeks. CFS has the cold coming back from the Rockies east into the GL region where it has been cold all season long. I would say your area gets hit by 1 or 2 storms before winter's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS for Monday/Tuesday has 5-7 for pretty much all of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 0z NAM also has a look of a good snowstorm for WI with pretty cold temps and a lot of precip breaking out at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS is gonna be pretty big with that storm for the 21st-22nd. 996 L developing in W. KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 992 at HR 189 in E CO/W. KS. 60 F temps up to St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 980 just N of GB at HR 216. D**n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Nice to see it coming in colder for Monday/Tuesday...this could be a signal that lays down the frontal boundary farther south for next weeks bigger storm and could push trough farther east...but that's still to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 GGEM is a monster hit. 999 in C IL. S. WI gets hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Next weekend's storm could be a blockbuster if this sets up just right. All models are indicating a very low pressure with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 GGEM colored maps HR 84: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_084.jpg HR 96 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg HR 108 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_108.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS keeps the warmth here pretty much from 126hr thru the end. Almost 70s in fantasy range. Amazing to see those in model runs during February, even if it is fantasy land.Edit: Wait, I was going through the "maximum temperature map" and not the "above ground temperature" map. Colder temps come in later in GFS. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like it would be a nasty icestorm on the GGEM for Chicago area. Precip maps out to HR 86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 The last and final visit of the PV at the end of the month??? Obviously, if there is no snow cover it won't matter too much and the fact its late season cold it won't pack as much of a punch as it did in January. It certainly would fit the pattern we have had all season long. Would be nice for all of us to cash in on that big storm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Snows for about 20 HRS here, mix gets to about Chicago/N. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 00z GGEM has it all snow from I'd say the northern counties of IL, south of that it starts as snow, then mix, then back to snow. Both GFS/GGEM are trending a little colder each run for N IL. WI is in a great spot to see warning snows with the Mon system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 00z GGEM has it all snow from I'd say the northern counties of IL, south of that it starts as snow, then mix, then back to snow. Both GFS/GGEM are trending a little colder each run for N IL. WI is in a great spot to see warning snows with the Mon system. See what the ukie/euro say and we'll probably have to make a thread for it. Trends are going the right direction though for sure. Only about 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'd say your right about that...trends are pointing towards a potent system. Probably should start a thread after tonight's full 00z suite of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 SREF Plumes are on the rise at HR 87 with temps around 20-22 in MKE and .2 QPF or so falling between HR 80 and 87. The main brunt of the storm doesn't happen until about HR 90-96 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Gimme rain or gimme snow. No ice, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 wow, models looking interesting! GFS slowly getting colder with each run through the extended. looks colder for monday's system and it has next weekend's storm a bit further south this run. fun times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 0z UKMET HR 96: 999 L N IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS is indeed a little cooler for next week. Still mid 30s, though, with some areas possibly reaching 40 in southern and western Iowa. How warm the temps get next week will all depend on that storm. It definitely appears there is going to be a major storm somewhere. Someone could get some good snow, but if you are in the warm sector, you can probably say goodbye to the snow pack. Still a lot up in the air, gonna be interesting to see how this all unfolds. Either way, I don't really mind. If we get snow, well then I don't mind. If we get rain and warm temps, then I really won't mind either. Should make this fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 00z GGEM has the big storm next weekend way south...been a SE trend with this system. Let's see what the Euro shows. Just remember what I said about the LRC, it had a track last time thru N IL/N IN so I'm not really to enthusiastic for a snow event around here. I've always thought this is going to be a IA/WI special. If that trough can push farther south, therefore keep the frontal boundary farther south, we may have a chance around here but that is a Big IF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Do any of you guys have temps or precip or anything from the ukie? i only know of that metrocentre site which only goes up to about hr 72 for 2M temps and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 0z ECMWF 993 L near Kenosha with 850 temps below 0 across WI at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Do any of you guys have temps or precip or anything from the ukie? i only know of that metrocentre site which only goes up to about hr 72 for 2M temps and precip.http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00&lang=en That one does temps in 144hr but precip only to 72hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 We go from hardly a storm to all models showing a very strong system (996 and lower) on nearly every model. This means more QPF for people with a lot of snow. Could be some nasty flooding down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 We go from hardly a storm to all models showing a very strong system (996 and lower) on nearly every model. This means more QPF for people with a lot of snow. Could be some nasty flooding down the line. Looks to warm here here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2014 Report Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks to warm here here. Yeah, could be. HR 96 has 850 mb temps between -2 and -5 below in Chicago when the low is in Kenosha/Racine area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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