CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, james1976 said: 18z GFS looks like it nudged slightly N from 12z It did. NWS Hastings says GFS is now pretty much aligned with the Euro and Canadian. It had been a southerly outlier for days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z GFS, holy cow. It’s going crazy with amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS still with a foot for Iowa city and CR. A couple of those inches are Tuesday morning with a lingering band of snow rotating through. DVN AFD said totals around a foot along I80 are possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: It did. NWS Hastings says GFS is now pretty much aligned with the Euro and Canadian. It had been a southerly outlier for days. DMX said the GFS is a northerly outlier with their pm afd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, james1976 said: DMX said the GFS is a northerly outlier with their pm afd Interesting. How models can change in a few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, james1976 said: DMX said the GFS is a northerly outlier with their pm afd It was the one furthest south all week now it’s the one furthest north?! Ha, crazy it now pretty much matches up with all the models. My Grid has a mix and 3-8 yet all models show 8+. Obviously the NWS know way more than us but sometimes I wonder how they do what they do! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z GFS Kuchera through 78 hours including Tuesday system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Any chance you could share further east. Thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, FV-Mike said: Any chance you could share further east. Thanks 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, FV-Mike said: Any chance you could share further east. Thanks 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z cmc looks relatively unchanged, perhaps slightly south less qpf. Waiting on accumulation maps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, jcwxguy said: 18z cmc looks relatively unchanged. Waiting on accumulation maps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 DVN is going with good ratios of up to 14:1 here, the same as what the Kuchera maps are showing. With the wind, I'm skeptical. Last night's fluff was 14:1. I certainly hope the GFS is right, but it seems north and overdone. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 51 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: 18z GFS Kuchera through 78 hours including Tuesday system. Looks more like Jim Flowers was predicting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, DSM WeatherNut said: Looks more like Jim Flowers was predicting. Yep. I’ve followed him for awhile, he is a veteran meteorologist who know’s his stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Not bad from wave1....Detroit picked up a little over 2inches earlier today..... 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, shakjen said: But yet they just upgraded northern Illinois to a winter storm warning. Must be looking at different models. Same models we're all reviewing and a Met discussed the situation. Was explained that their intent with a Watch is to go to a Warning even if/when conditions/results end up falling short of the technical requirements. My statement had to do with SR models lowering amounts run after run. If they continue to spiral down, that Warning will indeed bust but they sited several items that bolster their decision to upgrade. 1) First decent storm in like 3 years. 2) Winds are expected to exacerbate conditions. 3) Lake Michigan is expected to contribute to at least the greater Chicago region's totals (the bulk of their audience in other words). 4) As I've expected and fully applaud, the NWS is moving towards "impact based" headlines, thus a hard-hitting 4-5" snow at peak travel times could warrant a Warning just as much as the traditional 6"/12 hr formal definition. Good luck over there Chi-town Peeps. I think you'll enjoy this one after quite a drought. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Niko said: Not bad from wave1....Detroit picked up a little over 2inches earlier today..... What's 2" on a ruler look like, Idk? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, jaster220 said: What's 2" on a ruler look like, Idk? This was a heavy band that formed over Detroit. Beautiful! "Detroit Magnet" 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z gfs v16 (slow coming in) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Canadian has ~0.8” QPF for CR and IC. About splits the difference between the model camps and would probably result in a 10” snowfall. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z GFS v16 and still snowing here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, hlcater said: Canadian has ~0.8” QPF for CR and IC. About splits the difference between the model camps and would probably result in a 10” snowfall. I would gladly take 0.8" qpf. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 Hey Bud- do you have NWS model blend?? Regardless- thanks for posting them before. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 18z GFS v16 and still snowing here 9-10" imby come on now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 NWS Blend 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2021 Report Share Posted January 24, 2021 18 minutes ago, bud2380 said: NWS Blend Thats awful up here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 A poster on the other board says the 18z Euro is even farther south and drier. Why is the GFS going north and the Euro going south as we approach the start? 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 It is- really dries up going E. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 My guess to your question is do an avg of both. The Euro seems to always dry up as the event gets really close (maybe not this much)- I don't know about the GFS. The Euro does seem to have expanded the width of 6" snows since yday maybe eating up those insane totals that were in S.IA. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Man this is gonna need a drastic turn around to be remotely interesting around here. DVN's 8-11" call is looking dangerous. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: It is- really dries up going E. Have the 10:1? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 I wouldn't say the Euro is south, just steadily drier farther east. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Hers the 12Z- Hawkeye is right-- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 18Z 10:1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: 18Z 10:1 Looks like about 0.4 QPF and 0.5 for Iowa City. No ifs ands or buts about it... that's a huge yikes for the bullish forecasts, especially since the rule of the past 24 has been drier drier drier. 1 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Depending on lake enhancement snows to pull through is never a comfortable place to be. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 (still snowing iowa) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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