1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, james1976 said:

18z GFS looks like it nudged slightly N from 12z

It did. NWS Hastings says GFS is now pretty much aligned with the Euro and Canadian. It had been a southerly outlier for days. 

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS, holy cow. It’s going crazy with amounts. 

[bud2380]

GFS still with a foot for Iowa city and CR. A couple of those inches are Tuesday morning with a lingering band of snow rotating through. DVN AFD said totals around a foot along I80 are possible. 

[james1976]

4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It did. NWS Hastings says GFS is now pretty much aligned with the Euro and Canadian. It had been a southerly outlier for days. 

DMX said the GFS is a northerly outlier with their pm afd

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, james1976 said:

DMX said the GFS is a northerly outlier with their pm afd

Interesting. How models can change in a few days. 

[jcwxguy]

[gabel23]

3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

DMX said the GFS is a northerly outlier with their pm afd

It was the one furthest south all week now it’s the one furthest north?! Ha, crazy it now pretty much matches up with all the models. My Grid has a mix and 3-8 yet all models show 8+. Obviously the NWS know way more than us but sometimes I wonder how they do what they do!

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS Kuchera through 78 hours including Tuesday system. 

[FV-Mike]

3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Any chance you could share further east. Thanks

[jcwxguy]

6 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Any chance you could share further east. Thanks

 

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Any chance you could share further east. Thanks

[jcwxguy]

18z cmc looks relatively unchanged, perhaps slightly south less qpf. Waiting on accumulation maps

[jcwxguy]

1 minute ago, jcwxguy said:

18z cmc looks relatively unchanged. Waiting on accumulation maps

 

[Hawkeye]

DVN is going with good ratios of up to 14:1 here, the same as what the Kuchera maps are showing.  With the wind, I'm skeptical.  Last night's fluff was 14:1.

I certainly hope the GFS is right, but it seems north and overdone.

[DSM WeatherNut]

51 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

18z GFS Kuchera through 78 hours including Tuesday system. 

Looks more like Jim Flowers was predicting.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, DSM WeatherNut said:

Looks more like Jim Flowers was predicting.

Yep. I’ve followed him for awhile, he is a veteran meteorologist who know’s his stuff. 

[Niko]

Not bad from wave1....Detroit picked up a little over 2inches earlier today.....

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, shakjen said:

But yet they just upgraded northern Illinois to a winter storm warning. Must be looking at different models. 

Same models we're all reviewing and a Met discussed the situation. Was explained that their intent with a Watch is to go to a Warning even if/when conditions/results end up falling short of the technical requirements. My statement had to do with SR models lowering amounts run after run. If they continue to spiral down, that Warning will indeed bust but they sited several items that bolster their decision to upgrade. 1) First decent storm in like 3 years. 2) Winds are expected to exacerbate conditions. 3) Lake Michigan is expected to contribute to at least the greater Chicago region's totals (the bulk of their audience in other words). 4) As I've expected and fully applaud, the NWS is moving towards "impact based" headlines, thus a hard-hitting 4-5" snow at peak travel times could warrant a Warning just as much as the traditional 6"/12 hr formal definition.

Good luck over there Chi-town Peeps. I think you'll enjoy this one after quite a drought.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

Not bad from wave1....Detroit picked up a little over 2inches earlier today.....

 

What's 2" on a ruler look like, Idk?

[Niko]

9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

What's 2" on a ruler look like, Idk?

This was a heavy band that formed over Detroit. Beautiful!

"Detroit Magnet"

 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

18z gfs v16 (slow coming in)

 

[hlcater]

Canadian has ~0.8” QPF for CR and IC. About splits the difference between the model camps and would probably result in a 10” snowfall.

[bud2380]

18z GFS v16 and still snowing here

 

[Hawkeye]

10 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Canadian has ~0.8” QPF for CR and IC. About splits the difference between the model camps and would probably result in a 10” snowfall.

I would gladly take 0.8" qpf.

[Grizzcoat]

Hey Bud- do you have NWS model blend?? Regardless- thanks for posting them before.

[james1976]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

18z GFS v16 and still snowing here

 

9-10" imby come on now

[bud2380]

NWS Blend

 

[james1976]

18 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

NWS Blend

 

Thats awful up here

[Hawkeye]

A poster on the other board says the 18z Euro is even farther south and drier.  Why is the GFS going north and the Euro going south as we approach the start?

[Grizzcoat]

It is- really dries up going E.

[Grizzcoat]

My guess to your question is do an avg of both. The Euro seems to always dry up as the event gets really close  (maybe not this much)- I don't know about the GFS. The Euro does seem to have expanded the width of 6" snows since yday maybe eating up those insane totals that were in S.IA.

[hlcater]

Man this is gonna need a drastic turn around to be remotely interesting around here. DVN's 8-11" call is looking dangerous.

[jcwxguy]

4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

It is- really dries up going E.

Have the 10:1?

[Hawkeye]

I wouldn't say the Euro is south, just steadily drier farther east.

[Grizzcoat]

Hers the 12Z- Hawkeye is right--

[Grizzcoat]

18Z 10:1

[hlcater]

1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

18Z 10:1

Looks like about 0.4 QPF and 0.5 for Iowa City. No ifs ands or buts about it... that's a huge yikes for the bullish forecasts, especially since the rule of the past 24 has been drier drier drier.

[Sciascia]

Depending on lake enhancement snows to pull through is never a comfortable place to be.

[jcwxguy]

(still snowing iowa)