DSM WeatherNut Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: i think this is what the short range and NAM are seeing for moving the precip back S- DRY AIR- dewpoints around 0 that will eventually be advected in--- I see not much - if any- extension of current headlines in IA. Large expansion of warnings to the North were just posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 That heavy snow band was closer to the border earlier. Might bode well for Lincoln/Omaha peeps if trends hold 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, DSM WeatherNut said: Large expansion of warnings to the North were just posted. Wow. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 here's the latest Hastings NWS totals. These have slowly crept up. Trends looking great. Better go get some sleep now and let the fun begin at sunrise! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Long Range RAP- some sick totals showing up that are not so long range anymore. 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Classic Mid Latitude Cyclone starting ( or in the process) of cyclogenesis 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Not one mention of snowfall amounts in DVNs AFD. Pathetic. My point forecast is 5-11”. They aren’t even trying to refine the forecast. Regardless. One trend i notice on the HRRR and NAMs is the much slower onset than the GFS. Snow wouldn’t start in CR until almost 6pm per the NAM. GFS already has a couple inches down by then. I’d prefer to see snow during daylight hours today so hopefully it moves in quicker than those models are showing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Models trending down for here but my grided has now gone to 9-16. Now 16 would be a record and would be sweet. Would remind me of a nore'easter, but doubtful. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 35 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Not one mention of snowfall amounts in DVNs AFD. Pathetic. My point forecast is 5-11”. They aren’t even trying to refine the forecast. Regardless. One trend i notice on the HRRR and NAMs is the much slower onset than the GFS. Snow wouldn’t start in CR until almost 6pm per the NAM. GFS already has a couple inches down by then. I’d prefer to see snow during daylight hours today so hopefully it moves in quicker than those models are showing. Yes, I was hoping it would snow by 3pm, but it's looking more like a nighttime event . I'm going with a 5-8" range for me. I just can't count on a good ratio when there is wind. The locals all have Cedar Rapids in the 8-12" range. I certainly don't see us reaching the high end of that. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 DVN updated their snow map. Now shows 6-9” for Iowa City. And 6-10” for CR. Looking over the Euro it only shows qpf of around a 1/4” per 6 hour period. That isn’t heavy enough rates to produce big time snows over here. I think there’s a chance snow totals end up on the lesser side of 6-10”. But we’ll see. Either way we’re getting a major storm and I’m excited to watch it snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Pretty stiff east breeze on my way into work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Quite the write up from Des Moines. Gotta love the word "crippling" MAJOR WINTER STORM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS... All eyes are on the very heavy and potentially crippling snow storm set to affect the area today through tonight. Between the very heavy snowfall amounts forecast and the gusty winds on top of it, warning criteria are a slam dunk across at least the southern half of Iowa. The questions now are just how much snow will fall, just how bad will the impacts be, when will impacts begin and how long will the snow persist, and where will the northern edge of heavy snowfall set up. On the latter point, the entire NWP model suite has been trending steadily northward with that edge for the last 24-36 hours, and it now appears likely that heavy snow will fall all the way up to near the Highway 20 corridor, with lighter amounts to the north. Thus the winter storm warning has been significantly expanded northward to the Highway 20 corridor, with an advisory now in effect north of that up to about Highway 18 or so. Have also delayed the onset time of the warning just a few hours as the snow will initially be light and fighting dry air entrainment from the north, and have segmented the warning for later onset times near the I-80 and Hwy 30/20 corridors. Once the snow begins to fall in earnest it will accumulate heavily and rapidly, combining with the winds to produce very low visibilities and quickly deteriorating travel conditions. As the snow accumulates on roadways travel will likely become very difficult to nearly impossible in the swath of Iowa experiencing the highest accumulations, which are likely to exceed a foot in some locations. However, it is noteworthy that many of the higher resolution CAMs along with the operational NAM are actually moving the entire heavy snow swath northward with time, so that not only does it impact more of northern Iowa than previously anticipated, but according to these solutions the snow actually tapers off in southern and even central Iowa by late this evening. In other words, the storm total accumulations have been expanded/increased northward, but there is a potential that the accumulations in the south may be overdone, if indeed the heavy snow band moves completely north of that area earlier. Nevertheless, even a reduction from, say, 9 or 10 inches to more like 6 or 7 would only slightly moderate impacts, especially with so much of that snow falling rapidly and likely during the afternoon commute times to boot, along with winds blowing the snow over roads even after accumulation rates let up. As far as timing, while the onset time of accumulating snowfall moving from SSW to NNE has slowed just a bit, the duration of snowfall has extended on the back end through tonight, albeit at slower rates of accumulation after roughly midnight. Have increased POPs overnight into Tuesday morning rather significantly to account for this, though additional accumulations are much lighter by that time. Still, travel impacts will linger beyond the precipitation as it will take some time for plows to clear so much snow off the roads, especially outside the primary travel arteries. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 oUCH- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 do the math- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 NWS radar is not loading..and it's REALLY pissing me off. Ever since their update it glitches and refuses to load over and over. During a storm that is unacceptable. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Hrrr 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: DMX bust if that verifies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc400 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 hours ago, Tom said: Hmmm, this has perked my interest...as we get closer in time, it appears the LES potential on the backside of the storm looking better. The NAM fam try to keep a lake plume (convergence) into NE IL for hours on end...that would be a fantastic development if true. Some hefty localized totals for NE IL... I sure hope so. The last 6” storm at O’Hare was over two years ago, and the last 10” storm was way back in 2015. i think I hit 6 in one storm last year where I am but Chicago saw only half of that. It was tough to explain to my buddy in Texas last night that no, we do not really see big snowstorms in Chicago “all the time”. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Nice comma on radar already 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Looks like 3-7” forecast here, so that means 3” First winter in awhile where I had to refill my 2 Stage with gas. Feels good! Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 34 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said: NWS radar is not loading..and it's REALLY pissing me off. Ever since their update it glitches and refuses to load over and over. During a storm that is unacceptable. I haven't used NWS radar in years... COD or Wunderground are my favs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Rap 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc400 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 I’ve used by snowblower only once this year. For 2.5”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 No "Lincoln screwjob" with this storm... LOL!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 ^^^thanks dry air Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Let the fun begin... it’s going to be a great Monday for snow lovers around here! 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 35 minutes ago, brianc400 said: I sure hope so. The last 6” storm at O’Hare was over two years ago, and the last 10” storm was way back in 2015. i think I hit 6 in one storm last year where I am but Chicago saw only half of that. It was tough to explain to my buddy in Texas last night that no, we do not really see big snowstorms in Chicago “all the time”. I really think ORD will score a 6"+ storm out of this in a 24-hour period....the LES signal post storm looking better each run. In fact, the long range HRRR is painting quite a bit of qpf. It's prob over done but the idea is there that a potential lake plume or multiple bands set up Tue pm into Wed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 12z NAM to 39 hours. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Fwiw, we already have 2"+ (not supposed to have that for a few hours yet) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Would those lighter returns in NW Iowa mean saturation in the column? Good sign or just a pointless observation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just woke up and have measured 1.5" of new snow 6 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 DVN going with 5-9” here per there latest graphic, though we’re right on the edge of that. I’ll go with the 4-6” area that’s right next to us. Seems way more realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 And I thought 12z hrrr was a good run..13z even more impressive here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 you can already see the moisture split like some of the models suggested. Not sure that moisture in MO will make it to northern IL before it is already east of here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Good returns all the way up to Norfolk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 I hope those hrrr runs are out to lunch with that dry air in N IA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Anybody else feel like this could be a big dud? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, GDR said: Anybody else feel like this could be a big dud? Yep, by the looks or the radar now, the moisture isn't wrapping around or filling in. Just splitting and being pushed east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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