December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Snow]

You know what else is funny about that map.. Seeing 80% of the country getting snow. And the puget sound with nada... I know this will not happen like this but I did get a chuckle.. then I panicked a little too.

The Regular GFS snowfall map through 10am Dec 26 looks better for your area. I definitely feel a White Christmas is very possible now, these snowfall maps will definitely be changing.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121818/gfs_asnow_nwus_33.png

[antipex]

Some people work on here.  He will be here later with foam.

 

I work 8-4 on weekdays but I'm a software engineer, so that means lots of model reading and forum perusing. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I work 8-4 on weekdays but I'm a software engineer, so that means lots of model reading and forum perusing. 

I am a web developer and marketing manager so lots of ride time while at work. To busy at night with family to spend to much time on here but do look a little.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z Ensemble shows that the operational was a massive outlier.... Of course. Who is surprised by that....

[stuffradio]

I am a web developer and marketing manager so lots of ride time while at work. To busy at night with family to spend to much time on here but do look a little.

I'm a telecommuting web developer, so lots of model riding time.

[Alex_Snakes]

Web developer/designer here too. I see a trend.

[TT-SEA]

Why am I not surprised that you know that.

 

 

Pretty sure we all know that... he is almost never on during the day and starts posting in the evening.    Obvious in times when there is lots of activity.

[Alex_Snakes]

18z Ensemble shows that the operational was a massive outlier.... Of course. Who is surprised by that....

 

Can you post the chart?

[stuffradio]

Web developer/designer here too. I see a trend.

Are you sure it's not an outlier?

[antipex]

Pretty sure we all know that... he is almost never on during the day and starts posting in the evening.    Obvious in times when there is lots of activity.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gladys_Kravitz

 

http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20090817040052/bewitched/images/e/ee/Gladys_Kravitz.jpg

[antipex]

Are you sure it's not an outlier?

 

The ensembles show a high percentage of tech people.

[Gradient Keeper]

Can you post the chart?

 

[MossMan]

The ensembles show a high percentage of tech people.

I am an outlier, my job is not even close to being techy...but I do have an office, desk, a computer, and a view of I-5 so on the days that I am not on the road, I find myself popping over to the forum quite often!

[Gradient Keeper]

I just can't quite get the thought out of my mind that the top cold waves to ever strike the PNW occurred after a massive AR Event.....

[MossMan]

I just can't quite get the thought out of my mind that the top cold waves to ever strike the PNW occurred after a massive AR Event.....

I know Tim doesn't like to hear this, but I agree with you. 1990 really comes to mind among many others.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z Ensemble shows that the operational was a massive outlier.... Of course. Who is surprised by that....

Like I said... it's the 18Z.

[Snow]

I just can't quite get the thought out of my mind that the top cold waves to ever strike the PNW occurred after a massive AR Event.....

Very encouraging, past history is always a great indicator of the future.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I know Tim doesn't like to hear this, but I agree with you. 1990 really comes to mind among many others.

Uh ohhh...  Bring on the wrath of Tim.... *get's popcorn*

[IbrChris]

[TT-SEA]

I know Tim doesn't like to hear this, but I agree with you. 1990 really comes to mind among many others.

 

 

I think an immediate connection is certainly possible.

 

Just not 3 months from now.  

 

Obviously AR events are usually caused by a tight thermal gradient with cold air to the north... so it makes sense that sometimes we go from an AR event to arctic air... and sometimes back to another AR event when things shift north again.

 

But an AR event in October does not cause cold in January as some have implied.

[Alex_Snakes]

12wq2.jpg

 

Uh, yeah.

[Prairiedog]

Yes very encouraging considering our first 2 cold events never showed what we're seeing now and the models trended even colder as we neared those events.

 

Jaw dropping!

N. Koreans hacked the 18Z.  But then again, they don't know about the new parallel GFS.  Un-hackable says accuweather.

[BLI snowman]

When did AR become preferable to pineapple express or 'rainstorm'?

[Gradient Keeper]

I think an immediate connection is certainly possible.

 

Just not 3 months from now.  

 

Obviously AR events are usually caused by a tight thermal gradient with cold air to the north... so it makes sense that sometimes we go from an AR event to arctic air... and sometimes back to another AR event when things shift north again.

 

But an AR event in October does not cause cold in January as some have implied.

I agree with this, but an AR event in mid-late December sure can and has.

[stuffradio]

I think an immediate connection is certainly possible.

 

Just not 3 months from now.  

 

Obviously AR events are usually caused by a tight thermal gradient with cold air to the north... so it makes sense that sometimes we go from an AR event to arctic air... and sometimes back to another AR event when things shift north again.

 

But an AR event in October does not cause cold in January as some have implied.

I don't remember seeing anyone saying anything about 3 months out.

[TT-SEA]

I don't remember seeing anyone saying anything about 3 months out.

 

 

Really??

 

Jim has said it many times.   I don't buy it.   Just yesterday he referred to an AR event in the fall of 1861 that led to cold all winter.   

 

I think he is stretching in an attempt to find cause/effect... but so many variables come into play over time.

 

Clearly... this AR event is related to the cold air to the north which is then slated to move south.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Look at it this way. December 1968 and February 1950 happened before, that pattern could happen again. Why not now? Why not us? Nice rallying cry I'm sure the Weather Gods care a lot about that.

[Deweydog]

I just can't quite get the thought out of my mind that the top cold waves to ever strike the PNW occurred after a massive AR Event.....

It's not exactly a stretch to figure out why. Most of our strong retrogression events are born of patterns where we have flat west coast ridging with unusually high 500mb with a tight gradient. It's easy to get a good pineapple connection in those situations. October 2003 is an excellent example of this.

[Deweydog]

Really??

 

Jim has said it many times. I don't buy it. Just yesterday he referred to an AR event in the fall of 1861 that led to cold all winter.

 

I think he is stretching in an attempt to find cause/effect... but so many variables come into play over time.

 

Clearly... this AR event is related to the cold air to the north which is then slated to move south.

That connection I agree is pretty much BS.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's not exactly a stretch to figure out why. Most of our strong retrogression events are born of patterns where we have flat west coast ridging with unusually high 500mb with a tight gradient. It's easy to get a good pineapple connection in those situations. October 2003 is an excellent example of this.

Agreed

[stuffradio]

Really??

 

Jim has said it many times.   I don't buy it.   Just yesterday he referred to an AR event in the fall of 1861 that led to cold all winter.   

 

I think he is stretching in an attempt to find cause/effect... but so many variables come into play over time.

 

Clearly... this AR event is related to the cold air to the north which is then slated to move south.   

Unless I chose to ignore it? I only remember discussion about AR events to cold air right after, or I just made that the connection on my own subconsciously.

[BLI snowman]

Virtually every storm season in PNW history, good and bad, has had at least one pineapple express. It's an indication of an active and dynamic weather pattern, not much more.

[stuffradio]

Euro weeklies still pretty impressive around here through the end of the month, then after the 4th of Jan pretty much torches all of Canada and much of the US for a week or so before giving the East cold air again.

[TT-SEA]

Virtually every storm season in PNW history, good and bad, has had at least one pineapple express. It's an indication of an active and dynamic weather pattern, not much more.

 

 

Over the entire season... this is exactly correct.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Seattle NWS Long Term mentions possibility of cold coming, if the ECMWF verifies.....

-------------------------------------------------------------------

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AMONG THE MODELS. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT MONDAY WILL GENERALLY FEATURE SHOWERS OR A LULL IN RAINFALL AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST 12/18Z GFS BRINGS THE LOW IN FURTHER N WHICH WOULD STILL PRODUCE WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS WAS SHOWN BY PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS.

MOST MODELS DIG A COLD UPPER TROUGH SWD OUT OF B.C. THROUGH WRN WA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD USHER IN COOLER AIR BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF RIDGING OFFSHORE AND WHERE IT SETS UP. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF THE COLDER SOLUTIONS AND HAS THE KONA LOW CUT OFF FURTHER W...THUS A FURTHER W DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE KONA LOW IS FURTHER E ON THE GFS40 WITH A RIDGE NEAR 135 140 WHICH WILL STILL USHER IN COOLER NLY FLOW BUT PERHAPS LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT BUT A SWITCH TO COOLER OR COLD TEMPERATURES IS A POSSIBILITY BY THURSDAY. POPS WERE TRIMMED WAY BACK AND MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ALTOGETHER IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LOWER...POSSIBLY TO SEA LEVEL...BUT IT IS VERY UNCLEAR AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BY THAT TIME.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Imo this has the most potential for widespread heavy snow since 2008.

[TT-SEA]

Imo this has the most potential for widespread heavy snow since 2008.

 

Yep... this has the potential to turn into something crazy.

[MossMan]

Imo this has the most potential for widespread heavy snow since 2008.

That just gives me chills...and a instant flashback to wading through 30+ inches of snow. Starting to drool as I type!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cfs shows a major arctic outbreak in late January now.

[snow_wizard]

At this point we have a number of good model runs today.

 

Parallel GFS - excellent 0z and 18z

GFS - excellent 6z and 18z

GEM - good 0z excellent 12z

ECMWF - good 0z OK 12z