Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wow. It looks like I missed the party! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Tremendous analysis and insights, I couldn't have said it better myself.Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 [Model Countdown]6z NAM running nowNext up....6z GFS 1 hour 11 minutes12z NAM 5 hours 31 minutes12z GFS 7 hours 11 minutes12z GEM 8 hours 31 minutes12z ECMWF 9 hours 41 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 00z ECMWF Ensembles....................................................................................Improved even more than 12z, which improved dramatically compared to previous 00z run. Good deal. Now, what do we have to do to get that purple over us.. I want a lobe of the PV north of Omak on 12z runs tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Am I posting too much/often? Yes? No? Sometimes? Maybe? All the Above? Ask later? No, keep doing what you are doing! There are lots of us who read this stuff even if we don't post and I think we all appreciate the detailed and frequent posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 00Z Canadian is terrible. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif Could just be slow to catch up... or starting what will be the next trend in the models with this event. Canadian frequently does both so its hard to say.That is certainly a pattern that I don't want to see for any length of time in January! However, it may be an outlier from what I have been reading here on the forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wow great analysis on the models everyone last night! I went to bed just as DJ was posting about the GEM, I almost stayed up to see what was the verdict on the Euro but was just too tired. So glad the Euro turned out well!! Going to be a fun few weeks I do believe! I got chills when Phil mentioned the possibility of this being a greater event than 2008. Go 12z's!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Almost time for 12z! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I actually slept! True story.... 12z GFS, here we go.... Let's see how this run goes. We want to see this run follow 00z, but further improvements would be okay too. If we can just manage to pull the block 5 degrees west and a bit further north into Alaska.... I don't want to see it look like 6z, which in my opinion was a slight step backwards. Today very well may be edging towards a final solution, either way good or bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 A colder/snowier version of December 2008 coming up? Starting to look that way.. That is good... the one thing that was missing with the 2008 event was snow! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 That is good... the one thing that was missing with the 2008 event was snow!I think people went a little overboard on last night s model runs. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 That is good... the one thing that was missing with the 2008 event was snow! That would be pretty amazing if this thing surpassed 2008. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 The 6z ensemble has a number of cold members just before New Years. That time frame is looking better all the time. Nice to see the UKMET looks Arctic also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 The 6z ensemble has a number of cold members just before New Years. That time frame is looking better all the time. Nice to see the UKMET looks Arctic also.Could you post those? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I think people went a little overboard on last night s model runs.Based on last nights runs, I feel a January 1950 is a worst case outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Computer froze Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Based on last nights runs, I feel a January 1950 is a worst case outcome. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Computer frozeCuz the models are so cold. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 48 Op ... Just post Op, or Parallel images? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 48 Op ... Just post Op, or Parallel images? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_9.pngWhatever the holy spirit is leading you to do. I'm sure Snow will post parallel images. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I actually slept! True story.... 12z GFS, here we go.... Let's see how this run goes. We want to see this run follow 00z, but further improvements would be okay too. If we can just manage to pull the block 5 degrees west and a bit further north into Alaska.... I don't want to see it look like 6z, which in my opinion was a slight step backwards. Today very well may be edging towards a final solution, either way good or bad.Good! People like me that are not as good at reading all the different maps on the various models are counting on you!! I have a feeling I'm not going to get much done at work today. Last work day for me until next Monday! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 10,023 BC repeat! I hear that was a great year for snow and cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 48 Parallel http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122312/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 72 Ophttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 12Z operational not good for the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 96 Ophttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_17.png 500mbhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500a_namer_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 12Z: 6Z: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ouch 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 72 Parallelhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122312/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 That would be pretty amazing if this thing surpassed 2008.I can't imagine an 08' repeat... Another 40"+ of snow? Sign me up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 120 Op .. Not goodhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Gem leads the way? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Gem leads the way? Hopefully it is the 12Z GEM from yesterday and not last night's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 12Z GFS is way different for Saturday. New 12Z run: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_108_precip_p03.gif 00Z run from last night: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_120_precip_p03.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Kona low too weak on this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 12Z GFS is way different for Saturday. New 12Z run: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_108_precip_p03.gif 00Z run from last night: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_120_precip_p03.gifCelebrate sunshine and ridging in this land of constant troughs. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 It is amazing how different that run looks compared to the 0z. I wonder if it is just the models still having a really tough time with the pattern change, or if this is the final outcome. Maybe we will know by Christmas? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Parallel is running so slow.... HR 96http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122312/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 144 Op .. Ridge reorganizinghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122312/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 120 Parallel... Since HR 48 entirely different 500mb compared to Op http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122312/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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