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Don't have an ENSO thread and thought I'd kick one off. However I'll admit, I haven't done my research much this year as I have in years past. Hoping this one (the thread+current snow on the ground) will motivate me a bit. Also, finally seeing what appears to be an overall (and long awaited) N. Hem climate-scale shift. If not both hemispheres or globally. Just thought it'd be nice to start following.

Currently....

 

ssta.daily.current.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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10 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Don't have an ENSO thread and thought I'd kick one off. However I'll admit, I haven't done my research much this year as I have in years past. Hoping this one (the thread+current snow on the ground) will motivate me a bit. Also, finally seeing what appears to be an overall (and long awaited) N. Hem climate-scale shift. If not both hemispheres or globally. Just thought it'd be nice to start following.

Currently....

 

ssta.daily.current.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Glad you did start a thread in regards to ENSO.  It'll be a big year and a big test to see what nature has in store for the PAC ocean and global temps.  I've been watching these trends over the past few weeks and I'm leaning towards a moderate Nina, similar in strength to what we just experienced.  Some moderation this summer but then I think the PAC reloads the cooling as we head deeper into next Autumn/Winter.

Feb IRI/CPC Forecast...

 

 

figure4.png

 

 

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3 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

So what's this mean? There's more hope of having a good winter again in 21/22, right? Was this winter just an outlier or was it a shift towards actually having winters again?

I think time will obviously be the thing to tell us, in the long run, but my thoughts say that it's the long awaited shift towards good solid cold winters in the interior US. I've been waiting on the changes for 5 years. Climate moves slow, but the pattern and pendulum is there.

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  • 1 month later...

Most balanced you'll probably ever see our global SST profile. Cold PDO ring really making its presence felt. Debatable whether we'll see another cycle of cooling on the Atlantic equatorial region, but I'm leaning there. Can see the warm spot in the Atlantic for the detached/se shifted SER. Nothing really alarming or extreme at this juncture. Would put smart money on cold enso to neutral at best going forward for awhile. 

PAC says climate shift is complete in my opinion. May take a few years for it to formally be called such, but I call it that.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

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It's rather interesting to see how much the Global temps have tanked since the double peak.  I'm really curious to see where we go over the next few years.  Oceans at play??  

 

1.jpg

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

It's rather interesting to see how much the Global temps have tanked since the double peak.  I'm really curious to see where we go over the next few years.  Oceans at play??  

 

1.jpg

If I were applying guesses, I'd say we easily see us drop to -0.2°c if not as far as -.35°c or -.4°c.

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We had a very chilly Spring in North Texas.   

Just sayin'.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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