ENSO 2021-22

[OKwx2k4]

Don't have an ENSO thread and thought I'd kick one off. However I'll admit, I haven't done my research much this year as I have in years past. Hoping this one (the thread+current snow on the ground) will motivate me a bit. Also, finally seeing what appears to be an overall (and long awaited) N. Hem climate-scale shift. If not both hemispheres or globally. Just thought it'd be nice to start following.

Currently....

 

[Tom]

10 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Don't have an ENSO thread and thought I'd kick one off. However I'll admit, I haven't done my research much this year as I have in years past. Hoping this one (the thread+current snow on the ground) will motivate me a bit. Also, finally seeing what appears to be an overall (and long awaited) N. Hem climate-scale shift. If not both hemispheres or globally. Just thought it'd be nice to start following.

Currently....

 

Glad you did start a thread in regards to ENSO.  It'll be a big year and a big test to see what nature has in store for the PAC ocean and global temps.  I've been watching these trends over the past few weeks and I'm leaning towards a moderate Nina, similar in strength to what we just experienced.  Some moderation this summer but then I think the PAC reloads the cooling as we head deeper into next Autumn/Winter.

Feb IRI/CPC Forecast...

 

 

 

 

[gimmesnow]

So what's this mean? There's more hope of having a good winter again in 21/22, right? Was this winter just an outlier or was it a shift towards actually having winters again?

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

So what's this mean? There's more hope of having a good winter again in 21/22, right? Was this winter just an outlier or was it a shift towards actually having winters again?

I think time will obviously be the thing to tell us, in the long run, but my thoughts say that it's the long awaited shift towards good solid cold winters in the interior US. I've been waiting on the changes for 5 years. Climate moves slow, but the pattern and pendulum is there.

[OKwx2k4]

Most balanced you'll probably ever see our global SST profile. Cold PDO ring really making its presence felt. Debatable whether we'll see another cycle of cooling on the Atlantic equatorial region, but I'm leaning there. Can see the warm spot in the Atlantic for the detached/se shifted SER. Nothing really alarming or extreme at this juncture. Would put smart money on cold enso to neutral at best going forward for awhile. 

PAC says climate shift is complete in my opinion. May take a few years for it to formally be called such, but I call it that.

 

[Tom]

It's rather interesting to see how much the Global temps have tanked since the double peak.  I'm really curious to see where we go over the next few years.  Oceans at play??  

 

[OKwx2k4]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

It's rather interesting to see how much the Global temps have tanked since the double peak.  I'm really curious to see where we go over the next few years.  Oceans at play??  

 

If I were applying guesses, I'd say we easily see us drop to -0.2°c if not as far as -.35°c or -.4°c.

[Andie]

We had a very chilly Spring in North Texas.   

Just sayin'.

[OKwx2k4]

Here's lookin at the center of the East Pacific... Expecting longer term warming in this region along with waters above (N) and west of ENSO region

BBB- "Bring Back the Blob" 

 

[OKwx2k4]

We're a spot or 3 behind 2013's pace of blobbery, but the similarities are all in place. Heat content in the NE pac is pretty low now, but I'm watching it....

 

 

[Tom]

On 5/9/2021 at 10:43 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

We're a spot or 3 behind 2013's pace of blobbery, but the similarities are all in place. Heat content in the NE pac is pretty low now, but I'm watching it....

 

 

 

You got something cooking here buddy....the last run off the JMA weeklies is showing that blob strengthening...CFSv2 keeps it parked there next month and throughout the Summer.  I like the look of the colder waters hugging the W/SW coast of USA.  Re-emerging La Nina next Autumn??

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Re-emerging la Nina is a great call, imo. Everything else literally just fell into place as I said it, so if it works, awesome. Lol. 

Looking like a short summer down here with a blazing one up the west coast. I like that. I remember what this pattern translates to down the road.

[Tom]

Quick update on the current status of the subsurface water temp anomalies across the PAC ocean....what has been a very warm looking body of water has trended a lot colder.  Iirc, this pooling of colder waters in the western PAC coincidentally started in the same region last year at about the same time which then brought about the La Nina last year.  It's interesting to me to see this brewing up again for what should end up becoming a "double dip La Nina"...

 

The CFSv2 showing a strong signal for weeks now that by next Autumn we'll be back in a Nina...

 

[OKwx2k4]

Wow! Seeing the heat erode like that is incredible. Shocking really. That early fall is looking more bitter cold every day.

We see that setup as advertised and it's going to be cold over the CONUS for 6 months.

[Andie]

I’m going to need to buy heated longjohns if this coming winter repeats last winters. 

37* in my house was not acceptable!!  
I’m looking into my gas fireplace being adapted to a no electric start.  Can’t go to wood burning but I can remove the electric start method.  They won’t have the Texas grid fixed by then.  
Heck, they can’t fix the border chaos!!

[Tom]

It's official, a La Nina watch has been issued by the CPC:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

[Tom]

The last few frames of the animation below are indicative of the beginnings of the La Nina Part 2.  A rather large cold pool upwelling in the eastern central PAC as the SOI surges to almost record highs.

 

 

[Tom]

Dang, this is a rather massive cooling event shaping up across the E equatorial PAC....#LaNinaIsComing

[OKwx2k4]

Most sudden flip in enso I have ever witnessed.

Going to be the fastest and hardest fall into winter we have ever had in our lifetime. I think I'm 100 percent on that.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Oh boy. Here it comes, again!!

[Tom]

On 8/5/2021 at 7:50 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

Most sudden flip in enso I have ever witnessed.

Going to be the fastest and hardest fall into winter we have ever had in our lifetime. I think I'm 100 percent on that.

Massive cool pool exploding over the equatorial PAC...the last few frames are noteworthy...yet again, the CFSv2 was right all along months in advance that a 2nd year La Nina is coming for Autumn/Winter.  Let the games begin.

[Tom]

Recent trends in the central/eastern equatorial Sub Surface PAC anomalies showing a stout cold pocket...

[Tom]

Our La Nina is growing boldly on the surface of the ocean...but look out below!  My goodness, that's a lot of cold waters...

[OKwx2k4]

Seeing it grow would only lengthen winter in my opinion. Keep seeing cold surges coming there. Incredible. Just seems like we have been watching warm on those for 6 years.

[Andie]

Get ready.  Should be a real winter.  

[IMoveALot_Weather]

On 9/27/2021 at 7:27 PM, Andie said:

Get ready.  Should be a real winter.  

That's what the government and lamestream media want you to think.

[Tom]

We haven't used this thread in a long time but I suspect we will be seeing more posts and comments regarding the unusual 3-peat La Nina that is undoubtedly going to happen this year.  The question will be....how strong and how long???  Boy, what is happening in the deepest parts of the PAC ocean is rather interesting.  The waters are showing substantial cooling in recent weeks and it sure does show signs of growing and expanding.  Nearly every single climate model is suggesting the La Nina to grow basin-wide and will more than ever contribute to our global wx pattern in the months ahead.  I'm esp interested to see how this transpires for our Summer season.

 

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Nearly every single climate model is suggesting the La Nina to grow basin-wide and will more than ever contribute to our global wx pattern in the months ahead.  I'm esp interested to see how this transpires for our Summer season.

If I get a chance I will have to see if I can find any information on La Nina effects on the summer in North America. If there is a 3 peat It would be the first one since 1973/74, 74/75, 75/76. And that is the only one of record going back to 1950. So I guess one would have to look at the summer of 1975 and then the winter of 1975/76  

[Tom]

41 minutes ago, westMJim said:

If I get a chance I will have to see if I can find any information on La Nina effects on the summer in North America. If there is a 3 peat It would be the first one since 1973/74, 74/75, 75/76. And that is the only one of record going back to 1950. So I guess one would have to look at the summer of 1975 and then the winter of 1975/76  

Thanks for digging this up…we may be on the precipice of a new era.  Let’s see how this evolves.

[jaster220]

On 3/28/2022 at 8:52 AM, westMJim said:

If I get a chance I will have to see if I can find any information on La Nina effects on the summer in North America. If there is a 3 peat It would be the first one since 1973/74, 74/75, 75/76. And that is the only one of record going back to 1950. So I guess one would have to look at the summer of 1975 and then the winter of 1975/76  

 

On 3/28/2022 at 9:35 AM, Tom said:

Thanks for digging this up…we may be on the precipice of a new era.  Let’s see how this evolves.

I remember the summer of '75 as nice and warm (aka boat/beach/pool friendly) wx. Did a lot swimming. Gun deer season in mid-Nov I was in NWMI where it was exceptionally mild and sunny. At least 60F if not more. Winter '75-76 was very snowy for my native region in mid-SEMI and known around the GL's as quite a memorable LES season for those in the belts. My 2 cents per my memory..

[OKwx2k4]

On 3/28/2022 at 6:10 AM, Tom said:

We haven't used this thread in a long time but I suspect we will be seeing more posts and comments regarding the unusual 3-peat La Nina that is undoubtedly going to happen this year.  The question will be....how strong and how long???  Boy, what is happening in the deepest parts of the PAC ocean is rather interesting.  The waters are showing substantial cooling in recent weeks and it sure does show signs of growing and expanding.  Nearly every single climate model is suggesting the La Nina to grow basin-wide and will more than ever contribute to our global wx pattern in the months ahead.  I'm esp interested to see how this transpires for our Summer season.

 

Yeah, that Niño hope really crashed in weeks. So crazy.

I'm wondering if I don't experience a July this summer that's "polar" opposite of my December 2021.

[Andie]

Another dry drought ridden winter.

[weatherfan2012]

On 3/28/2022 at 7:10 AM, Tom said:

We haven't used this thread in a long time but I suspect we will be seeing more posts and comments regarding the unusual 3-peat La Nina that is undoubtedly going to happen this year.  The question will be....how strong and how long???  Boy, what is happening in the deepest parts of the PAC ocean is rather interesting.  The waters are showing substantial cooling in recent weeks and it sure does show signs of growing and expanding.  Nearly every single climate model is suggesting the La Nina to grow basin-wide and will more than ever contribute to our global wx pattern in the months ahead.  I'm esp interested to see how this transpires for our Summer season.

 

You need to go on Facebook and Twitter and tell Larry Cosgrove about this as he has been talking about how the La nina is breaking down and he sees weak El Nino by the fall.Im a  Larry Cosgrove fan but I just don't know what he is seeing base on most data right now.

[weatherfan2012]

15 hours ago, Andie said:

Another dry drought ridden winter.

I'm not sure what Cosgrove is seeing with his El Nino idea.

[weatherfan2012]

Larry Cosgrove is still very much in the weak El nino train https://www.linkedin.com/m/feed/update/urn:li:share:6916237145888198656/ his weather America letter.

[Thunder98]

I hate La Niñas so much!

[Mr Marine Layer]

12 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

I hate La Niñas so much!

So do I. Dry winters followed by gloomy springs.

[jaster220]

On 4/4/2022 at 1:53 PM, Thunder98 said:

I hate La Niñas so much!

Oddly, they have a strong history of treating my native region of SMI (basically 2 counties north) very well. While this won't be a Top-5 finish like 17-18 was, that same area is one of the Non-LES Belt regions that has seen the most snow this winter. Nino's normally spell the opposite.

[weatherfan2012]

On 3/29/2022 at 4:50 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

Yeah, that Niño hope really crashed in weeks. So crazy.

I'm wondering if I don't experience a July this summer that's "polar" opposite of my December 2021.

Larry Cosgrove is still convince a west basen Weak El nino end of summer someone asked him if he was still thinking El nino on his Facebook page.so it will be interesting  to see if he ends up right sure is interesting he going against the grain.

[Thunder98]

 

 

[Iceresistance]

Goodness, it's coming back with a Vengeance!

[weatherfan2012]

On 4/27/2022 at 10:09 AM, Iceresistance said:

Goodness, it's coming back with a Vengeance!

Larry Cosgrove thinks it is weaking https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:6925431474506661888/  not sure what he is looking at but he a old school forecaster.

[OKwx2k4]

I don't doubt the ultimate progression here is to weak CP style, but man, this thing just keeps cranking along. May be another year or may be ultimately a non-Niño warm phase fluttering on the .5 bar. My opinion.

Stuff is changing a lot globally right now. Very interesting.

[OKwx2k4]

3 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I don't doubt the ultimate progression here is to weak CP style, but man, this thing just keeps cranking along. May be another year or may be ultimately a non-Niño warm phase fluttering on the .5 bar. My opinion.

Stuff is changing a lot globally right now. Very interesting.

Edit/add...

The subsurface pentads are west/CP Niño all the way. Historically, when theres no cold pool anywhere in the PAC, the cold pools over the US.

[Tom]

Dang, these are some rather chilly waters hugging the western shores of S.A...besides the ever-lasting La Nina, the very warm waters building N of Hawaii has my attn...

[Mr Marine Layer]

We are due for a strong El Nino.

[Andie]

That would be nice for us.  
The last good one brought us plenty of rain and some snow.  We’re due.  

[weatherfan2012]

Larry Cosgrove has been beating the warm neutral weak El nino drum for fall winter for months it seems interesting considering the cold enso waters 

 

[OKwx2k4]

That's truly awful.

Super hot.

[Andie]

On 6/19/2022 at 1:01 PM, weatherfan2012 said:

Larry Cosgrove has been beating the warm neutral weak El nino drum for fall winter for months it seems interesting considering the cold enso waters 

 

BOOOOOOOOO !!!!!!!!

This really stinks!

100-101 today.