January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Yerf]

I think the clipper this Sunday could have some juice

[gosaints]

TBH, its been the most accurate forecasting mechanism for this winter as a whole.  Models last week were jumping on an arctic attack late this month and have since subsided.  Utilizing the LRC, you would have known that was not happening and folks near the Lakes/East were cooler than those in the Plains/Midwest.  The LRC is relatively new and therefore the majority of mets don't use it or don't even know about it.

Pretty sure you bought into the cold as well not just the models

[Tom]

Pretty sure you bought into the cold as well not just the models

I did, and it bit me in the A$$!

[gosaints]

I did, and it bit me in the A$$!

me to, but it s good thing it isnt coming to fruition.  Not enough of a snowpack on the ground.  Would have frozen pipes galore around here

[Niko]

Snowing fairly moderate here in my neck of the woods with about 1.5" so far. I should end up with a 2 to 3 inch total. More snows again tomorrow with another 1-3inch. Not bad for 2 clippers in a row. Everything is snowcover. Roads are a mess.

[Tom]

me to, but it s good thing it isnt coming to fruition.  Not enough of a snowpack on the ground.  Would have frozen pipes galore around here

Last nights new run of the Euro Weeklies show the evolution of the LRC pattern nicely from the beginning of Feb through late month.  SE ridge present, cold central CONUS, should be some good chances for storm systems next month.  January started out promising, fizzled out over the last few days, hoping these Clippers can lay down some decent snow before the next exciting pattern evolves.

[SE Wisconsin]

JB at Wheathrbell has mentioned how a negative AO and NAO has more impact on weather in North America in late winter and early spring than it does early on in winter.  If that's the case, and we can get those indexes to stay in negative territory during the month of February, then maybe the fat lady will sing us a nice long aria in February.  Hopefully, maybe even a curtain call with an encore performance in March!

[Hawkeye]

GFS(and now the euro last night) is consistently showing a few inches of snow for eastern Iowa from Sunday's clipper.  This time the surface temp will be marginal so it will be a wetter snow.  It might not last long, though, as the GFS shows milder air flooding right back into the area.  Even beyond that, cold air continues to get pushed back even farther as the strong pacific flow into the pacnw doesn't allow arctic air to dig south.

[Tom]

The new JAMSTEC Climate model has a very cold looking Spring for much of the nation.  It's showing nearly 95% of the nation to experience colder than normal temperatures.  As far as precip, the Plains may cash in on some wet systems this Spring.  Overall, this model is heading towards the analogs and another Winter that lasts into Spring is on the table.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2015.1jan2015.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2015.1jan2015.gif

 

 

Looking out even farther, another repeat of a cooler than normal and wet summer for the Plains/Midwest/Lakes????

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2015.1jan2015.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2015.1jan2015.gif

[Tom]

It's interesting the model wants to keep the warm waters hugging the west coast and NW NAMER into next Fall...and also a much stronger indication of a tongue of colder waters from Asia towards north of Hawaii.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2015.1jan2015.gif

[Tony]

Just a terrible pattern setting up for the next 10 days or so. We might have some flakes falling here and there but that's about it. These clippers won't have much moisture with it so only an inch or two for some lucky spots especially in IA.

[Geos]

Little bit of slushy accumulation in Racine I noticed, not much accumulation elsewhere. Forecast calling for 1-2" tonight into Wednesday.

 

I'm pulling for February to help make up for December and part of this month as well. Quite a few areas of the Midwest need the moisture. Wouldn't want to end up like summer of 2012 again with the dry ground that proceeded it...

[Tom]

12z Euro...coming in a bit stronger this run for the weekend Clipper....

[Tom]

Would be nice for this Clipper to be able to tap into more colder air as we get closer as it takes nearly a perfect track for NE IL/SE WI to get some added lake enhancement.  The Euro does tug down some arctic air behind it and as that system develops over the East Coast, a nice long NNE fetch down the lake evolves...with an arctic HP to the NW this could produce something interesting along the western shores of Lake Michigan early next week.

[james1976]

Just to my NE great...GFS has a good track for me

[Tom]

12z Euro seeing the cold coming next weekend and beyond...l think this time it may be handling it correctly as the LRC is matching up well with it.

 

 

Meantime, here is the 12z Euro Control with snow totals thru the Sunday/Monday period...

 

FWIW, the Euro ensembles are certainly starting to pick up on a much snowy/colder pattern from the mid section of the nation to the Lakes and East Coast over the next 2 weeks.  It did well back in early January when it picked up on a much more active period when we had several systems to track.  Now that we are approaching the wettest part of the LRC cycle in the coming 5-10 days (which will be a good 3 week period in February), this forum will light up with more action.

[NEJeremy]

Your chance is coming in about a week or so.  The energetic system back on Dec 14-16th we saw dive into the 4 corners region will be cycling through by early next week.  Then the pattern turns cold and stormy for a good 3 week period in Feb.

One of these times this is going to be right!!

[Tom]

One of these times this is going to be right!!

How did I know you were going to reply!  Ya, maybe this time SE NE can cash in on some snow.

[Tom]

18z GFS now starting to amp up the weekend Clipper and showing some lake enhancement in IL/WI....

[Tom]

GFS def heading towards the EURO now...a pretty potent/windy Clipper this run and has winds coming down the length of the lake Monday when air temps are plunging.

[Maxim]

If that ridge out to the west doesn't completely fall apart as it makes its way further east, then I could see this month ending up with only a slight negative temp departure. We shall see though.

[Geos]

I think the Midwest will have another snowy period coming up, question is how cold will it really be. I think will have a lot of seasonal cold from here on into the first week of February. Maybe a few more nights below zero.

 

Low ceilings all day made it a big difference from the mixed sun and clouds yesterday. 

[NEJeremy]

How did I know you were going to reply!  Ya, maybe this time SE NE can cash in on some snow.

Hey now! This had nothing to do with you, I've seen snow plenty of times on the models and it goes away. It's not like you're just pulling things out of thin air. The models just can't get it right this year

[jaster220]

Got a wet inch out of today's clipper from about 7am to noon. Looking even better for tonight/tomorrow's system if it holds as projected. At the half-way point for avg snow for mby over here in Central SMI. Hope we all can score some bigger events after things pick up towards month's end.

[Meichel]

Wish this thing would over produce and give me 1.5". 

[Maxim]

Today makes the 30 year anniversary of the coldest temp ever record in Chicago.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/012012.png

 

     

[GDR]

[Scott26]

Today makes the 30 year anniversary of the coldest temp ever record in Chicago.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/012012.png

 

     

Unless you want it to be -27 degrees again

[Geos]

Starting to flurry here now.

[bud2380]

Gfs shifted sw with clipper on Sunday. Surface temps also around freezing, but 850s well below zero for most areas.

[Scott26]

18z GFS now starting to amp up the weekend Clipper and showing some lake enhancement in IL/WI....

It would be nice to get some snow on the ground again. I really do want this clipper pattern to end though so we can track something more substantial.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z Euro gives Chicago and esp MKE some good snows from Clipper on Sunday-- 00Z GFS much further west..

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS looking better and better for CHicago and MKE--- looks to be too warm for most of IA--   Seems like NE blues from last winter have moved East....

[GDR]

At this point i would rather have 45 and rain.

[Scott26]

It may be time to make a thread for the weekend clipper system. It's not like anything else is going on...

[Maxim]

It may be time to make a thread for the weekend clipper system. It's not like anything else is going on...

Sick and tired of clippers, I'd rather get nothing.

[Grizzcoat]

I am sick and tired of JB on WB saying how he has nailed the forecast since Nov. Usually he says DEC,, but since NOV was cold and DEC was warm,, he was forced to. He also is focusing on how "good" he has done in Texas for JAN at the same time not mentioned  is the 4-8F bust he will have here in IA. (last forecast I saw from him for JAN for IA was -1 to -3F below normals-- it's going to turn out 3-5F above.  I will gladly take any snow-- please send West.

[NEJeremy]

Speaking of Texas, they are supposed to get 10-12" of snow in the panhandle today and tonight, while my coolest high temp the next 7 days is supposed to be today with a high of 39, then it's back to the 40s and 50s all the way to next Tuesday and beyond.

[Snowshoe]

Green Bay liking the Canadian/Euro agreement.

 

00Z Euro gives Chicago and esp MKE some good snows from Clipper on Sunday-- 00Z GFS much further west..

 

 

NWS GRB

 

00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON SOME SNOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS IN
THE SOLUTION ARE DIFFERENT. THE GFS TAKES THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. PAST HISTORY WOULD SUGGEST THAT WHEN THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THIS FAR OUT...THIS WOULD BE
THE WAY TO TREND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON A SNOWIER SOLUTION.

[gosaints]

Slowly but surely janurary temperature departures are climbing out of the tank

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/7dTDeptUS.png

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png