January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Snowlover76]

im worried about mixing here.  

[Tom]

00z GFS has another system 4-5 days later hitting the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  12z GGEM was showing this towards the end of the run as well.

[Grizzcoat]

00z GFS has another system 4-5 days later hitting the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  12z GGEM was showing this towards the end of the run as well.

Nothing agst this wkend's system-- but I think the one 4-5 days later may become something more interesting. Just a hunch.

[Tom]

Nothing agst this wkend's system-- but I think the one 4-5 days later may become something more interesting. Just a hunch.

Knowing that this weekends potential storm cycled back in the Plains back in December with a rather strong piece of energy, I think it has potential to be a significant one.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

00z GGEM...

 

Nice, another penny and nickel at best to add to our collection.

[centralweather44]

im worried about mixing here.

I agree. Mets calling for upper 30's and lower 40's. May get some flakes but will most likely end up rain with going temps. Especially after 60's today and the next few days.

[Tom]

GGEM has not budged with the snow chances and cold to open up February....I am amazed (actually, why would you be given the way models have been behaving this Winter) to see how consistent this model has been over the past 3-4 days.

[winterfreak]

Once again Texas panhandle gets clobbered. Amarillo has had way more snow than these parts. Kind of sad. Some of that cold is assuming snow cover, which I have no confidence in happening. Been over a month since the last snowflake I saw. Something has to give lol.

[Snowlover76]

how does the 0z Euro look for this weekend? 

 

I assume its gone. 

[Tom]

Best run yet so far on the Euro...timing/phasing of the northern stream is getting better each run with ample moisture supply.  I like the way its heading.

[Money]

GFS owned the EURO for the east coast storm. What an awful performance by a usually good weather model. 

[Money]

One of the NWS forecasters in the NE 

 

Gary Szatkowski @GarySzatkowski · 2h2 hours ago

My deepest apologies to many key decision makers and so many members of the general public.

 

Gary Szatkowski @GarySzatkowski  ·  2h 2 hours ago

You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn't.  Once again, I'm sorry.

 

Just goes to show you that every storm is completely different and just because the weather models show a huge storm doesn't mean it's going to happen. The fact that the best model we have was nearly 20 inches off on a storm 12 hours away is troubling, and shows you that there's a long ways to go in the weather world in forecasting etc 

[Money]

Heck, they were talking about 30-36 inches of snow yesterday all over in the NE and some of those places will be lucky to see 4-5 inches of snow. 

 

I don't think I've ever seen a bust this bad before. All the places that shut down the transit system, people can't drive on the roads for the next day etc Just a plain mess.

 

This is also why it's frustrating always complaining/reading about how the models show no snow etc when sometimes they can't even get it right a day before a storm happens. 

[Snowlover76]

Heck, they were talking about 30-36 inches of snow yesterday all over in the NE and some of those places will be lucky to see 4-5 inches of snow. 

 

I don't think I've ever seen a bust this bad before. All the places that shut down the transit system, people can't drive on the roads for the next day etc Just a plain mess.

 

This is also why it's frustrating always complaining/reading about how the models show no snow etc when sometimes they can't even get it right a day before a storm happens. 

March 2001.  36+ was forecasted for Philly and they got maybe 1"  

[bud2380]

I love that wxbell now has the uk precip maps out to 144 hours. Here is the uk snow totals for the weekend.

 

[educatorjen]

Are we going to be too warm for accumulation?  

[FV-Mike]

Heck, they were talking about 30-36 inches of snow yesterday all over in the NE and some of those places will be lucky to see 4-5 inches of snow. 

 

I don't think I've ever seen a bust this bad before. All the places that shut down the transit system, people can't drive on the roads for the next day etc Just a plain mess.

 

This is also why it's frustrating always complaining/reading about how the models show no snow etc when sometimes they can't even get it right a day before a storm happens. 

Agree 100%. All the complaining on the board has become tiresome. 6.5 inches in central park as of 8:00am. Storms are unpredictable

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Agree 100%. All the complaining on the board has become tiresome. 6.5 inches in central park as of 8:00am. Storms are unpredictable

 

So much of the complaining though is regarding the models, and the recent Euro bust justifies these complaints.  They have been worse than normal I think this year.

[Tony]

GFS owned the EURO for the east coast storm. What an awful performance by a usually good weather model. 

All the modeling has been terrible this winter but I would have to say the Euro has been particularly bad as you expect more from this model moreso than the others.  

 

I would hate to be a snow lover around the NY area with all the hype of a huge storm and not materialize. The GFS nailed this area for sure.

[Snowshoe]

I still see plenty of 20"+ reports so don't be so quick calling it a bust.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[NEJeremy]

I've seen 8-12" reports at the 2 New York airports and in Central Park, so for New York City itself this was a bust. They've already cancelled the blizzard warnings for the area as well. Man I feel bad for the local meteorologists and the NWS offices in that area. There's probably going to be a huge public backlash and complaining from the "common folk" who have no idea how weather forecasting and the use of computer models work. I think most of the public thinks meteorologists just pull their forecasts out of thin air and hope to be right half the time. I worked at a TV station with a meteorologist for an internship one summer and he would get calls from people bit$hing him out because it rained 3 drops one afternoon on their picnic when it wasn't supposed to!

[FV-Mike]

I've seen 8-12" reports at the 2 New York airports and in Central Park, so for New York City itself this was a bust. They've already cancelled the blizzard warnings for the area as well. Man I feel bad for the local meteorologists and the NWS offices in that area. There's probably going to be a huge public backlash and complaining from the "common folk" who have no idea how weather forecasting and the use of computer models work. I think most of the public thinks meteorologists just pull their forecasts out of thin air and hope to be right half the time. I worked at a TV station with a meteorologist for an internship one summer and he would get calls from people bit$hing him out because it rained 3 drops one afternoon on their picnic when it wasn't supposed to!

Yep your right, especially on the national front. So much is driven by ratings and it causes a lot of issues

[Money]

Yep your right, especially on the national front. So much is driven by ratings and it causes a lot of issues

 

The problem was the NWS kind  of started all this by throwing out very unreasonable maps.

 

They had their entire area in 24-36 amounts, even when the other models besides EURO were not on board. They trusted the king, put out very unreasonable amounts, and they should be getting the blame. Normally, I agree the media always overdoes things, but you can't have highly respected NWS offices hype it up like they did in the NE.

[NEJeremy]

Not to split hairs here, but

 

The problem was the NWS kind  of started all this by throwing out very unreasonable maps.

 

They had their entire area in 24-36 amounts, even when the other models besides EURO were not on board. They trusted the king, put out very unreasonable amounts, and they should be getting the blame. Normally, I agree the media always overdoes things, but you can't have highly respected NWS offices hype it up like they did in the NE.

Not to split hairs here, but I thought most of the forecasts had 20-30" with locally higher amounts. At any rate, with that amount of snow possible, the strength of the winds and major metropolitan areas that were to be affected in the northeast, I think they had to hype it up. Most models agreed on those amounts for most of their recent runs. In reading the forecast discussions, over the last couple of days, the offices felt the GFS was a fast outlier. But even the GFS though until later yesterday still had much higher amounts for NYC than what eventually fell. Heck, I think half of what fell in NYC was from a pretty local band that set up yesterday afternoon and just sat over the city. I saw 4-8" fell from that first episode. Even with model disagreement, the NWS can't make a forecast that says well 8" could fall or 24" could fall. They had to pick a way to go and for NYC that didn't work out. However areas further northeast, looks to be fine for the initial forecast. I definitely don't envy the job of a NWS forecaster

[Hawkeye]

So far this morning the models have really backed off from the weekend snow event.

[Tony]

Modeling so far today blah for this weekend but I guess that was expected and will probably continue to waffle for the next few days or so.

[Yerf]

Not a lot of QPF but looks like a long duration. Still have a lot of time

[Tom]

12z Euro looking good....

[Tom]

12z Euro continues to step in the right direction and ejecting the energy out of the 4 corners faster each run.  Even though today's 12z run shows some energy lagging behind as you can see in the images below in N Mexico, it still ends up producing a pretty formidable storm that heads up into the OV.  Lots of time to see the models get a better handle on this system.  Nonetheless, I like the trends where this is going.

[Snowlover76]

12z Euro continues to step in the right direction and ejecting the energy out of the 4 corners faster each run. Even though today's 12z run shows some energy lagging behind as you can see in the images below in N Mexico, it still ends up producing a pretty formidable storm that heads up into the OV. Lots of time to see the models get a better handle on this system. Nonetheless, I like the trends where this is going.

And Nebraska gets the shaft. Again.

[Tom]

This storm pattern setting up for next weekend reminds me of the stories JB mentioned on Wx Bell in the past where the EC coast got hammered by a Blizzard only to have the snow cover wiped out by a Blizzard that hit the Lakes/OV back in the late 70's.  I think it may have been 1978.  I'm not saying next weekend will become a Blizzard, but a significant storm is certainly on the table.

[Hawkeye]

The latest Euro's 7-10 day period is looking pretty wintry as well... much more so than some recent runs.  The models have really been flopping around badly later in the range.

[winterfreak]

When we're in the right spot, this weekend, it's too warm.

[Snowshoe]

This is about as exciting as it gets this year... a brief mention at the end of the AFD of possible active weather. 

NWS GRB

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ARCTIC AIR. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A FEW WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING IN
LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. MILD PACIFIC AIR
WILL BRING US WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

[Money]

18z GFS is back showing 5-7 for C/N. IL 

[Tom]

It's also looking colder for the Plains/Midwest with temps in the mid/upper 20's during the event...

 

[winterfreak]

GFS is horrible for the Plains. The beat goes on. Supposed to get up to seventy tomorrow. In mid January.

[Scott26]

It's also looking colder for the Plains/Midwest with temps in the mid/upper 20's during the event...

A step in the right direction no doubt.

[Seahawkfan]

Sunday storm Tuesday Wednesday clipper looking interesting. brutal cold Starting this weekend things finally go back to more winter like. Step in the right direction but being still almost a week out makes me nervous.