January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

The east has seen plenty of positive winter departures in recent years. They always got hit more often than us even in colder times thanks to topography/climo, so it would stand to reason that even during periods of dwindling NH cold on a long term scale they would still get hit more than us while our marginal climate is all but shut out.

 

Of course, since 2007 NH cold in winter has actually been more abundant. We've actually seen a downward trend in average NH temps in winter, though it's a short time scale, of course.

 

It still takes the same patterns as it always had for the East to get cold, and for the West to get cold. If those patterns occur, it gets cold.

[snow_wizard]

When the western lowlands plunge into the icebox in mid-March give me a call.

 

That hasn't happened in any of our lifetimes.

 

1870 and 1897 are the only real examples where we had freezing high temps in mid March.

[Phil]

Phil is touting a "full wind reversal in the upper levels". Sounds like something that could really shake things up. Winter could last through April.

The PV gets destroyed on the latest run..duel breakers/+MT pulse followed by internal wave-wave constructive interference..assists with baroclinic transition.

 

Big high sitting over the pole @ the end of the run..PV demolished:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/QDgfPs/800.jpg

[Front Ranger]

It happened in 2011-12 & the first half of 2012-13. We're definitely not overdue:

 

The northeast has actually been the warmest region of the country relative to long term averages since 2007.

 

 

 

[BLI snowman]

DJF13TDeptUS.png

 

2012-13 wasn't a cold winter for most of us. We've been over this.

[Front Ranger]

When the western lowlands plunge into the icebox in mid-March give me a call.

 

That hasn't happened in any of our lifetimes.

 

But I don't have your number?

 

Anyhow, the 2008 mid April event where parts of the lowlands saw inches of accumulating snow was about as anomalous as a mid-March event you are most likely picturing. Point being, it's not climate change that's preventing that from happening.

[Front Ranger]

2012-13 wasn't a cold winter for most of us. We've been over this.

 

Yeah...that wasn't the point. It was that the East was warm that winter.

[Front Ranger]

The PV gets destroyed on the latest run..duel breakers/+MT pulse followed by internal wave-wave constructive interference..assists with baroclinic transition.

 

Big high sitting over the pole @ the end of the run..PV demolished:

 

 

Sounds violent.

[Jesse]

It is quite astonishing to note Western Montana has actually pulled off a normal winter so far with normal temps and normal snowfall. I have no idea how with the awful pattern the NW has been in. I've been doing a lot of research on Missoula and I like what I see.

Montana is the . Expect to see me posting from there within a decade.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah...that wasn't the point. It was that the East was warm that winter.

 

True, but we just haven't seen a warm East/cold West regime much in recent years. Happened in February 2011 and December 2008... not many other examples. Those tend to work out the best for us.

[Front Ranger]

True, but we just haven't seen a warm East/cold West regime much in recent years. Happened in February 2011 and December 2008... not many other examples. Those tend to work out the best for us.

 

Yup. The overall winter blocking pattern has definitely favored central cold, as that map I posted above shows.

[Phil]

Yup, it's like the whole system is warming or something!

There was a systematic warming from 1976-2001, yes.

[Front Ranger]

It is quite astonishing to note Western Montana has actually pulled off a normal winter so far with normal temps and normal snowfall.  I have no idea how with the awful pattern the NW has been in.  I've been doing a lot of research on Missoula and I like what I see.

 

My sister went to school there for a year. Missoula is definitely not my favorite place in Montana, but it is a decent-sized city (especially for Montana), and it's very steady in the snowfall department. The vast majority of winters are in the 30-70" range, with only a few duds with less than 25".

 

I prefer a place that gets more big storms, but minor quibble.

[Phil]

For Jesse...trend since 2001 is actually negative on three of the five datasets:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/j3416n/640.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/nBqun5/640.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/0TnSJP/640.jpg

[wx_statman]

Montana is the s**t. Expect to see me posting from there within a decade.

 

That's kind of a long timeline. I was sure I was moving Denver a few years ago, but then one day I decided to stay. Just like that. I grew older by a couple years and my perspective changed, and my desire to move changed with it.  

 

Point being, don't tell people you've moving until you're actually committed to it.

[Phil]

Sounds violent.

This one could be a fight.

[Snowman5678]

Do you mean the hail was half inch diameter or there was a half inch of hail on the ground?

half inch diameter but it was estimated since I was driving in my car. It was louder hitting my car than pea sized hail too and there was a storm report of .50" hail in the area too. 

[ShawniganLake]

Yup, it's like the whole system is warming or something!

Seems like your attitude towards our climate has made a big adjustment since the -PDO and palm tree killing good times of last winter.

[Front Ranger]

Seems like your attitude towards our climate has made a big adjustment since the -PDO and palm tree killing good times of last winter.

 

He's on a kick. I have faith that a more balanced perspective will set in soon. He's a reasonable guy.

[snow_wizard]

That's kind of a long timeline. I was sure I was moving Denver a few years ago, but then one day I decided to stay. Just like that. I grew older by a couple years and my perspective changed, and my desire to move changed with it.  

 

Point being, don't tell people you've moving until you're actually committed to it.

 

I know exactly what you mean.  I have really struggled with the desire to move vs the desire to stay.  It has gotten to the point where I'm tired of spending half of the year pissed off at how lame our climate has become.  I pretty much have to move, but it's very complicated to do so for a number of reasons.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I know exactly what you mean. I have really struggled with the desire to move vs the desire to stay. It has gotten to the point where I'm tired of spending half of the year pissed off at how lame our climate has become. I pretty much have to move, but it's very complicated to do so for a number of reasons.

I totally understand!! I am considering on moving to Spokane area but would be at least 3 to 5 years away.

[snow_wizard]

I totally understand!! I am considering on moving to Spokane area but would be at least 3 to 5 years away.

 

I thought about Spokane also.  It's the only real city in this state that has a good climate.

[snow_wizard]

My biggest wish at this point is that we can at least get the heights up over the GOA at some point before this winter is over.  Another year of endless ridging along the coast and troughing off the coast would be enough to make me ill.

[luvssnow_spokane]

My biggest wish at this point is that we can at least get the heights up over the GOA at some point before this winter is over. Another year of endless ridging along the coast and troughing off the coast would be enough to make me ill.

who knows maybe we will be neighbors and can take turns clearing snow from our drive ways and having a beer or two together in the summer. !

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow that finish made me excited the Seahawks won. Too bad they have to lose in the Super Bowl now.

[Jesse]

Seems like your attitude towards our climate has made a big adjustment since the -PDO and palm tree killing good times of last winter.

 

I am becoming more of a realist. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Doesn't mean we have nothing in the way of wintery goodies to look forward to in the coming years. A return to a mid-20th century climate in which we can score significant cold anomalies in all seasons on a consistent basis is probably not in the cards, though. 

[Jesse]

That's kind of a long timeline. I was sure I was moving Denver a few years ago, but then one day I decided to stay. Just like that. I grew older by a couple years and my perspective changed, and my desire to move changed with it.  

 

Point being, don't tell people you've moving until you're actually committed to it.

 

What does it matter? It's something I am seriously considering and it's fun to talk about. I don't think I'm going to break anyone's heart on this forum if things work out differently down the road.

[Front Ranger]

Wow that finish made me excited the Seahawks won. Too bad they have to lose in the Super Bowl now.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

I am becoming more of a realist. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Doesn't mean we have nothing in the way of wintery goodies to look forward to in the coming years. A return to a mid-20th century climate in which we can score significant cold anomalies in all seasons on a consistent basis is probably not in the cards, though. 

 

That sounds more reasonable than when you were saying our current climate is "ridiculously removed" from 30 years ago. There is a difference

[ShawniganLake]

I am becoming more of a realist. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Doesn't mean we have nothing in the way of wintery goodies to look forward to in the coming years. A return to a mid-20th century climate in which we can score significant cold anomalies in all seasons on a consistent basis is probably not in the cards, though. 

I would not disagree with this. 

[Jesse]

That sounds more reasonable than when you were saying our current climate is "ridiculously removed" from 30 years ago. There is a difference

 

Depends on what your definition of ridiculous is.

[Front Ranger]

Depends on what your definition of ridiculous is.

 

It sounds pretty major.

 

Anyhow...like I said, it seems like you've been focusing on the recent warm anomalies (which are 95% due to persistent patterns) as a reason why the PNW is becoming "more Mediterranean", and then concluding that good winter events are going to become less and less common - yet, the Willamette Valley just had an impressively snowy winter, one of the snowiest in the past 40 years. Arctic outbreaks have been quite common in recent years. There is nothing to indicate that good patterns still won't deliver good results, by and large.

 

Just seemed like one of those things where you have a shift in thinking, but the shift might have gone too far.

[Dan the Weatherman]

The EPS/GEFS are now both insistent on a major SSW to close out January..full wind reversal in the upper levels. If that verifies, a lot of people may sit in the icebox all the way into April.

That means CA and the immediate West Coast will get absolutely squat for the rest of the winter.

[Dan the Weatherman]

We all need to bear in mind this season and most recent seasons aren't truly representative of what it can do here.  We are just as capable of big cold anomalies as anywhere else.  I am dying to see the day the east finally gets payback and they suffer through the huge positive departure winters.

I think there is something very abnormal going on lately that has kept this ridging near the West Coast as an overly dominant feature the last few years. What has been going on in northern California in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall in the Sierra the last couple of winters and continuing this year as well is absolutely incredible.

[Jesse]

It sounds pretty major.

 

Anyhow...like I said, it seems like you've been focusing on the recent warm anomalies (which are 95% due to persistent patterns) as a reason why the PNW is becoming "more Mediterranean", and then concluding that good winter events are going to become less and less common - yet, the Willamette Valley just had an impressively snowy winter, one of the snowiest in the past 40 years. Arctic outbreaks have been quite common in recent years.

 

Just seemed like one of those things where you have a shift in thinking, but the shift might have gone too far.

 

Eh, I don't think I ever said anything outlandish.

[Front Ranger]

Eh, I don't think I ever said anything outlandish.

 

Guess it depends on what your definition of "outlandish" is.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Yeah...I'm just getting really tired of this pattern.

I agree with you. I am really getting tired of this terrible drought that has been plaguing CA and other western states and this same pattern that is denying you of cold air outbreaks is denying us of much needed storm systems from the Gulf of Alaska that supply the Sierra snowpack.

[Deweydog]

I am becoming more of a realist. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Doesn't mean we have nothing in the way of wintery goodies to look forward to in the coming years. A return to a mid-20th century climate in which we can score significant cold anomalies in all seasons on a consistent basis is probably not in the cards, though.

Did you think up until last night that was likely to happen?

[bainbridgekid]

I thought about Spokane also.  It's the only real city in this state that has a good climate.

45" of snow and a 32/23 average in December? You could do a lot worse.

 

I was surprised to see they actually average more snow than Missoula (39") even though Spokane is 1,400 feet lower.

[Jesse]

Did you think up until last night that was likely to happen?

Nothing happened last night. That hope has been gradually slipping away from me for years.