January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

I would usually be inclined to agree, but my guess right now would be that we keep on torching right through the Spring.

 

Just favoring persistence, I take it?

[Bham_Guy]

DP of 55 at SEA

[Jesse]

We won't. A somewhat miserable spring seems inevitable, but hey, we could get lucky.

1992.

[Deweydog]

1992.

Bring it! Lovely summer too. Then is snowed!

[Front Ranger]

Medford seems to be in some sort of inversion. Sunny, but only 56. Not gonna come anywhere near their monthly record of 71 from 1961.

[Jesse]

Bring it! Lovely summer too. Then is snowed!

Yes is did!

[Snowman5678]

59 and cloudy here...Feels like a gloomy May or late April day. 

[Jesse]

Medford seems to be in some sort of inversion. Sunny, but only 56. Not gonna come anywhere near their monthly record of 71 from 1961.

One has to wonder if you'd be so busy putting things in "perspective" if we were currently courting all-time January lows...

[Deweydog]

Medford seems to be in some sort of inversion. Sunny, but only 56. Not gonna come anywhere near their monthly record of 71 from 1961.

Crazy ! Valley inversions during a subsidence pattern in January????

[BLI snowman]

That winter didn't have an air mass like we saw in November, though. Or even one like late December, I don't believe.

 

It did in fact have one backdoor event

 

http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1940/1/24/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

Pretty lame for the most part, though.

[BLI snowman]

Fast moving clouds, dark skies, and 'warm' at 57º. This has to be one of the weirdest January weather days I have experienced.

 

Feels like thunderstorm weather!

[Front Ranger]

One has to wonder if you'd be so busy putting things in "perspective" if we were currently courting all-time January lows...

 

One can wonder too much. I've been pointing out the impressive nature of this air mass, from a historical perspective.

 

That post was just me noticing how Medford was oddly not getting the same oomph from the air mass as everywhere else from Redding to Portland.

[Front Ranger]

It did in fact have one backdoor event

 

http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1940/1/24/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

Pretty lame for the most part, though.

 

Yeah, but low of only 27. PDX at least managed to hit 21 in late December.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, but low of only 27. PDX at least managed to hit 21 in late December.

 

But PDX at least managed some snow in 1940. Lame versus lame. Take your pick.

[Front Ranger]

But PDX at least managed some snow in 1940. Lame versus lame. Take your pick.

 

I thought we were talking temps?

[Front Ranger]

One record that really jumps out at me is the 72 Monroe, WA recorded in January 1935. Any reason to think that's not legit? It's really head and shoulders above most other January records in the region.

[Deweydog]

I thought we were talking temps?

Decoupling vs. not decoupling. Not exactly brain surgery there...

[Front Ranger]

Decoupling vs. not decoupling. Not exactly brain surgery there...

 

Uh huh. 21 vs 27. Not sure why he threw itty bitty of snow in there. 

[BLI snowman]

I thought we were talking temps?

 

Pretty similar airmasses, dude.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

46 at paradise.

[Deweydog]

Uh huh. 21 vs 27. Not sure why he threw itty bitty of snow in there.

Oh dear.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty similar airmasses, dude.

 

Yup. But at least PDX managed to decouple and record a decent low temp in 2014. That's all I was saying.

[BLI snowman]

One record that really jumps out at me is the 72 Monroe, WA recorded in January 1935. Any reason to think that's not legit? It's really head and shoulders above most other January records in the region.

 

It likely is. Also hit 72 in Everett. 66 in downtown Seattle that month. That was a massive pineapple express torch following our cold spell.

[BLI snowman]

Yup. But at least PDX managed to decouple and record a decent low temp in 2014. That's all I was saying.

 

And at least the Portland area managed to score light frozen precip in 1940. Either way, it's crap.

[Front Ranger]

Oh dear.

 

[Front Ranger]

And at least the Portland area managed to score light frozen precip in 1940. Either way, it's crap.

 

Regardless of craptitude, at least Nov 2014 managed a more impressive cold air mass than anything seen in 1939-40. Despite reoccurring blow torches both winters.

[Dan the Weatherman]

New long range outlook through most of February... don't worry about it.   Brett uses red colors too often.   It will not be warm along the West Coast.   He showed that a couple weeks ago for right now and look how that worked out!   

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01230433_jan22a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01230434_jan22b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01230435_jan22c.png

I hope that he has a warm bias here, because if not, it looks like an utter torchfest for that period. Hope it doesn't verify!

[wx_statman]

True. I usually just go with the original, as the WRCC does.

I try to get a complete picture.

[Front Ranger]

I hope that he has a warm bias here, because if not, it looks like an utter torchfest for that period. Hope it doesn't verify!

 

Those weeklies tend to go with persistence a lot, I've noticed. Doesn't mean that won't verify, but something to keep in mind. At one point they were looking pretty nice for January...didn't turn out great.

[wx_statman]

We won't. A somewhat miserable spring seems inevitable, but hey, we could get lucky.

We have a few examples of toasty spring weather coming out of toasty Niño winters. Years like 1914, 1926 and 1992 did it.

[BLI snowman]

Regardless of craptitude, at least Nov 2014 managed a more impressive cold air mass than anything seen in 1939-40. Despite reoccurring blow torches both winters.

 

Yeah, it's a little better. The difference (so far) is that 1939-40 was followed by another extremely warm 18 months.

[Deweydog]

Regardless of craptitude, at least Nov 2014 managed a more impressive cold air mass than anything seen in 1939-40. Despite reoccurring blow torches both winters.

 

 

I have no idea why you're poking around about December like a dimwit, but I agree here.  This cold season is being misrepresented for what it's been.  It's simply been a fairly classic nino (just without the full blown nino despite the fact the atmosphere sure has thought it was one) with more volatility early followed by a quick transition to a benign, mild, QUIET pattern.  The fact it came on the heels of an already record breaking summer/fall has just left everyone a little punch drunk on climate change.  

[Front Ranger]

I try to get a complete picture.

 

Guess it depends on if you're talking about when the record was set or just tied.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

125 at jims house. Crazy.

[wx_statman]

Looks like Redding airport has set their January record. Of course, their period of record only goes back to 1986. The previous, long term Redding station has a January record of 87 from 1920.

FYI the Redding numbers from January 1920 are bogus. The real monthly record appears to be 81 on 1-4-1984. Salem was 65 that day.

[Front Ranger]

I have no idea why you're poking around about December like a dimwit, but I agree here.  This cold season is being misrepresented for what it's been.  It's simply been a fairly classic nino (just without the full blown nino despite the fact the atmosphere sure has thought it was one) with more volatility early followed by a quick transition to a benign, mild, QUIET pattern.  The fact it came on the heels of an already record breaking summer/fall has just left everyone a little punch drunk on climate change.  

 

I feel insulted. iFred!! iFRED!!!!

 

I don't think the last sentence applies to everyone...

[Deweydog]

I feel insulted. iFred!! iFRED!!!!

 

I don't think the last sentence applies to everyone...

 

Probably not, but the most vocal people about it seem to fit that bill.  

 

After all is said and done, we will have had at least three pushes of modified Arctic air this winter.  I'll take my chances with that any year.  

[snow_wizard]

But PDX at least managed some snow in 1940. Lame versus lame. Take your pick.

The fact we are even talking about comparisons to 1940 is pretty awful. Amazingly I still think 1937-38 through 1941-42 was probably the worst 5 year run we've ever had. That is really saying something with the awful winters we had in the early to mid 2000s.

[snow_wizard]

I feel insulted. iFred!! iFRED!!!!

 

I don't think the last sentence applies to everyone...

You can't deny the ridiculously warm summer and autumn on top of this winter puts it in pretty rare company.

[BLI snowman]

Probably not, but the most vocal people about it seem to fit that bill.  

 

After all is said and done, we will have had at least three pushes of modified Arctic air this winter.  I'll take my chances with that any year.  

 

Funny thing is that 2002-03 had three as well (the third one was the March 2003 Fraser River event though). We're hard pressed to not get least one, even in our shittiest years.