January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[whitechristmas]

Another amazing thing about this season is how warm the clear nights have been outside of the ones with the continental air masses in place. 37 degrees here on a clear calm night at 10pm in late January is awful.

 

Not as bad as 41 degrees down here (SW Washington at the entrance to the Columbia River Gorge ) with a light east wind I might add. Pathetic, Pitiful, and painful to look outside today.

[richard mann]

Not as bad as 41 degrees down here (SW Washington at the entrance to the Columbia River Gorge ) with a light east wind I might add. Pathetic, Pitiful, and painful to look outside today.

 

P..p..p....

 

— Just Joshing of course. Certainly a reasonable post and impression.

 

(hey, I've gotta keep it somewhat "brighter". I live at the south edge of the PNW, only. Also within the state to your south threatened with a additional year of "drought".)

 

edit: "news" this evening, Central Sierras main reporting (measuring.) station. 12% of normal "snowpack".

[epiceast]

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web248/get_legacy_plot-web248-20150130065845-9247-0093.gif

 

Eerie.

 

Does anybody know why Euro site so user unfriendly now?

[Front Ranger]

0z Euro shows what would be a historic cold wave for AK.

[richard mann]

.. Harbinger of a "Late Spring". (?)

[BLI snowman]

Well, the Juneau people were saying winter was over less than a week ago, and they just saw a 6" snowstorm.

 

There are some subtle changes in the pattern now that open the door for more interesting and potentially active weather in the near future. Right now things don't look great, but the 0z models took a step in the right direction. All it would take is a little bit stronger and better placed high here, and a further south low pressure system there, and things could get interesting.

 

All I'm saying is, don't get too caught up in how boring this month has been and assume nothing will change.

 

LOL, are you really comparing us to Juneau? Their winter clearly extends to late March. Every year. 

[richard mann]

-
"January's Disappearing Snowpack"
 
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/01/januarys-disappearing-snowpack.html

— Cliff Mass's blog entry this evening.
 
.. There will be some light snow in the north Cascades during the next 72 hours, but not enough to make a huge difference.-Here are the predicted snow amounts.-Virtually nothing in the Oregon Cascades, southern WA Cascades, and the Olympics,but the north Cascades and northeastern Washington get 1/2 ft or so.-Southeast BC gets a snow freshening.

[Front Ranger]

LOL, are you really comparing us to Juneau? Their winter clearly extends to late March. Every year. 

 

No, I'm comparing the people throwing in the towel on anything good happening the rest of the winter to the person in Juneau who did the same thing and a few days later got a nice snowstorm.

 

Things. Can. Change. And the big ridge pattern that has dominated the west coast of North America for the past few weeks is starting to show more and more cracks.

 

For those hoping for a return of the mountain snows: Alaska getting very cold, which they have had trouble doing this season, is definitely a good sign. Hopefully the 0z models, the Euro in particular, were on to something.

[snow_wizard]

0z Euro shows what would be a historic cold wave for AK.

If that were to verify I might have some hope for us a bit later. Totally insane cold air mass being shown up there.

[BLI snowman]

No, I'm comparing the people throwing in the towel on anything good happening the rest of the winter to the person in Juneau who did the same thing and a few days later got a nice snowstorm.

 

And by extension comparing us to Juneau.

 

It's a pretty safe little bet in any circumstance that Juneau's winter isn't over on January 29.

 

For our area, in a piss poor El Nino year with sky high +PDO, it's a pretty safe bet that our best winter weather is already behind us by January 29.

[snow_wizard]

 

Eerie.

 

Does anybody know why Euro site so user unfriendly now?

I still use the old site which will be active for another few months. I hate the new layout.

[HighlandExperience]

-

"January's Disappearing Snowpack"

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/01/januarys-disappearing-snowpack.html

 

— Cliff Mass's blog entry this evening.

 

.. There will be some light snow in the north Cascades during the next 72 hours, but not enough to make a huge difference. .Here are the predicted snow amounts. .Virtually nothing in the Oregon Cascades, southern WA Cascades, and the Olympics,but the north Cascades and northeastern Washington get 1/2 ft or so.  Southeast BC gets a snow freshening.

 

Thanks for the link. Viewing those satellite photos, and the pictures shows how dire the situation has become. I especially feel sorry for the Oregon people. Their snowpack is virtually non existent. 

[snow_wizard]

-

"January's Disappearing Snowpack"

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/01/januarys-disappearing-snowpack.html

 

— Cliff Mass's blog entry this evening.

 

.. There will be some light snow in the north Cascades during the next 72 hours, but not enough to make a huge difference.-Here are the predicted snow amounts.-Virtually nothing in the Oregon Cascades, southern WA Cascades, and the Olympics,but the north Cascades and northeastern Washington get 1/2 ft or so.  Southeast BC gets a snow freshening.

The snowpack in the Oregon Cascades is truly shocking. I had no idea it was that bad.

[HighlandExperience]

The snowpack in the Oregon Cascades is truly shocking. I had no idea it was that bad.

 

the persistence of this torch is amazing. 

[richard mann]

I especially feel sorry for the Oregon people. Their snowpack is virtually non existent.

My father .. 84 (this Jan.), ski's Bachelor.  / 85 plus days last year. "Top's ok."

 

— My parents live in Bend. Hoping for a late Spring, more myself. .. when I go up.

[snow_wizard]

The one piece of good news is the CFS now shows a good chance we will avoid a Nino next winter. 7 of the most recent 8 ensemble members shows Nino 3.4 below +0.5 by Oct 1. A huge change from what It had been showing.

[HighlandExperience]

The one piece of good news is the CFS now shows a good chance we will avoid a Nino next winter. 7 of the most recent 8 ensemble members shows Nino 3.4 below +0.5 by Oct 1. A huge change from what It had been showing.

 

That is encouraging, but in some ways depressing knowing that we are looking for signs that might lead to a better winter next year. Two bad seasons in a row is hard to stomach. 

 

I'm not going to lie. A part of me still holds out hope for a late Feb/March blast that will make up for the last two years of crap.

[richard mann]

The one piece of good news is the CFS now shows a good chance we will avoid a Nino next winter. 7 of the most recent 8 ensemble members shows Nino 3.4 below +0.5 by Oct 1. A huge change from what It had been showing.

Not, the only one. (With emphasis.)

[richard mann]

-

.. Begin here. Best case scenario again here. No guarantees. The main positives as I see them at this point more specific.

 

Jan. 30th., Still in fact "early" winter. Some decent cold NNW., Some [decent cold] out over the Central Pacific.

 

And if you're willing to contemplate these ideas following, looked at together with these above., …

 

.. Per my expectation, figuring more general, cold more primary from the north (NNW-inclusive.) will begin to move and spread daily more south on the 31st.-And with this, also at the same time, cold / colder air looked at more broadly (including that out over the Central Pacific, decent glut certainly.), will be moving more assertively east, also beginning more in earnest on the 31st, with continuing to do so through Feb. 3rd. (Not backing down here. Not considering anything that goes against it.)

 

And with considering these two elements of potential, the idea that they could perhaps come together to reinforce one another.

[westiztehbest]

MJO progression has slowed down compared to previous cycles. I have my eye on Feb 15th-25th for the PNW

 

I agree.  It coincides with the upwelling kelvin wave currently making its eastward trek across the Pacific.  Last year in mid February it reached our longitude...a few days later...boom...Arctic air and a snowstorm here.  We'll see if that logic plays out this year as well.  It seems next week could be pineapple express from hell...so may be that's a precursor to a cold shot.  I'm interested that Alaska will be seeing brutally cold temps soon...which is a change.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Mountain snow is what we need. I'm over waiting for it in the lowlands.

The entire West needs mountain snow right now.

[Dan the Weatherman]

How about anything other than the ugly pattern we have been in? Anything that involves above normal heights over the GOA would be just fine with me.

We need any pattern that directs the storm track along the West Coast, for a rainier and snowier pattern instead of this endless ridging from Hell that never seems to end!

[Dan the Weatherman]

Another amazing thing about this season is how warm the clear nights have been outside of the ones with the continental air masses in place. 37 degrees here on a clear calm night at 10pm in late January is awful.

I believe the much warmer than normal SSTs covering a large part of the Pacific is one of the main culprits for these very mild temperatures that have been occurring up and down the entire West Coast.

[Dan the Weatherman]

The snowpack in the Oregon Cascades is truly shocking. I had no idea it was that bad.

The Sierra snowpack is at a paltry 12% right now.

[richard mann]

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.1.29.2015.gif

 

— Still plenty of moisuture generation. Both Southwest and more immediate.

 

.. I blew this post earlier this evening. Perhaps to a somewhat incomprehensible level. 

 

— I typed in "more" only, in place of "moisture", now more correctly inserted here above. The idea still certainly pertinent.

[richard mann]

... Here in my Villa, in Mexico. ?
 
http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0900.jpg

— Plainly a winter more conducive to generating some decent precip. in parts of Mexico. By more general appearances leastwise.

[richard mann]

.. More plain more eastward and at higher latitudes, colder air is [already] beginning to more assertively east. @

[MossMan]

A frosty 30 degrees here in Arlington currently!

[Tyler Mode]

16th day of fog at my place.  Goes to show how stagnant the weather has been this month.

 

The difference is, it's actually below freezing.

 

Sad to see that Timberline sits at 41 though.

[luvssnow_spokane]

0z Euro shows what would be a historic cold wave for AK.

Goodie for Alaska... I know that Arctic waves are very unusual for them during the winter. I hope they are prepared... 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Only 10 days away on the Euro

 

http://s28.postimg.org/bs97hz9y5/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

LOL!!!  rinse Repeat... 

[bainbridgekid]

LOL!!!  rinse Repeat... 

That's a completely different pattern than anything we have had lately.

 

Granted it's 10 days out and there is tons of model disagreement right now.

[Parksvillewx]

First freeze here last night since Jan 1st. Got down to a bone chilling 31.6F.

[MossMan]

First freeze here last night since Jan 1st. Got down to a bone chilling 31.6F.

Must be that raging negative PNA right causing these frigid temps!

[seattleweatherguy]

Goodie for Alaska... I know that Arctic waves are very unusual for them during the winter. I hope they are prepared... 

the gfs shows thickness gettting around 479 with temps -20 to -28 not that historic unless the gfs is downplaying temps

[Abbotsford_wx]

First freeze here last night since Jan 1st. Got down to a bone chilling 31.6F.

 

Wow, that is lame. I've had nine freezes this month, and another four near freezes.

 

I was surprised when I looked at the numbers to see that it hasn't really been a torch out here. The only impressive stat is my streak of 50F+ highs, which currently stands at seven and will probably add to today and tomorrow.

[GHweatherChris]

Very frosty morning, nice to see.

[MossMan]

Hopefully that massive amount of cold air building in AK will decide to head down into our neck of the woods for a Feb 1989 repeat!

[seattleweatherguy]

Hopefully that massive amount of cold air building in AK will decide to head down into our neck of the woods for a Feb 1989 repeat!

We can only dream that with that historic air mass we could get something historic here too!

[Front Ranger]

And by extension comparing us to Juneau.

 

It's a pretty safe little bet in any circumstance that Juneau's winter isn't over on January 29.

 

For our area, in a piss poor El Nino year with sky high +PDO, it's a pretty safe bet that our best winter weather is already behind us by January 29.

 

It was more the common theme of: things have been this way, so they'll stay this way. The Juneau forecaster assumed that, and so are a lot of people on here. That's all.