Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 PAR GFS liquid- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Makes most sense to just post moisture maps from Weatherbell. I don't think any part of this system will contain 10:1 ratios. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Good point. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 PAR GFS looks weird. Has the heaviest right at the southern edge. I know there will be a sharp cutoff but that model is showing the harshest cutoff out of em all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 00z RGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 DBQ and ORD aint gonna get much if this thing keeps trending south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Low resolution global models aren't the best ones to look at right now. I think both DBQ and ORD will be well within advisory criteria. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Â I understand it's more short term models now-- but here is the EURO liquid-- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 First of the year-- WS warning for my county--- -NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA356 AM CST MON JAN 5 2015.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON JAN 5 2015WEAK WAVE OVERNIGHT BROUGHT SOME MINOR SNOWFALL TO SOUTHWESTAREAS...MAINLY DONE AT THIS TIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISEPOTENT H850 SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME PLACEMENTISSUES CONTINUE WITH 00Z GFS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...WHILETHE GEM/EURO/NAM CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS...BUT THEREIS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF IF THE FORCING HANGS ONINTO THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE KEPT QPF VALUES CLOSER TO THE A BLENDOF THE NAM/GFS/EURO. NEARLY ALL OF THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM ISISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS A RATHER STRONG H850/H700 FRONTAL ZONE WITH30 TO 40KTS OF H850 FLOW WHICH ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM. BUFR SOUNDINGSHOW THAT WESTERN AREAS NEAR CARROLL SHOULD BEGIN SATURATING BY MIDTO LATE MORNING AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FORGENERALLY LIGHT SNOW JUST PRIOR TO 18Z. BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z STRONGWARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORCED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH THEBEGINNING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF ABOUT 1 TO 1.5INCHES PER HOUR WEST...AND BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z OVER CENTRAL AREAS TOEAST OF I35. THE MAX LIFT WILL HIT THE I35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 7PM...RUSH HOUR AND WILL IMPACT AREA TRAVEL CONSIDERABLY. FORCING ISNOT A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM...SREF MEDIAN DEPTH OF THE DENDRITICGROWTH ZONE SHOWS 150 TO +200MB OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THESYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH 8 TO 12MBARS/SEC LIFT THROUGH THE LAYER. THISIS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST CENTRAL COUNTIESWHERE WE HAVE ALIGNED THE MAX SNOWFALL AXIS FOR THE EVENT. GIVENTHE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT...SHOULD EASILY SEE ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHESDURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. WINDS DONT LOOK TO BE A GREATISSUE WITH THE STORM. SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SFCFEATURE WHICH WEAKENS A BIT WITH TIME AS IT ENTERS IOWA. THE DRYPOWDERY NATURE OF THE SNOW...WITH MODEST WINDS IS LIKELY TO CAUSEPATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT MORE IN THE EVENING.TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO CLIMB MUCH BUT WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITHLOWER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID TEENS SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED THEWARNING AREAS AS BEFORE BUT ADDED SOME OF THE WATCH COUNTIES TOWARNING OVER THE SOUTH WHERE CUTOFF OF 6 INCHES VERY CLOSE ANDEXPANDED THE ADVISORY SOUTH AS WELL ONE ROW OF COUNTIES. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 http://tswails.com/uploads/2015/01/1-la-crosse.jpg Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter  78.1"  Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage  : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow  : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 hearing only 1-3" for chicago again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 and the weakening trend continues. Â Pretty much every storm this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Models almost always weaken storms as they get closer, especially clippers like this. And the weakening really isn't much, looking at some impressive totals here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Models almost always weaken storms as they get closer, especially clippers like this. And the weakening really isn't much, looking at some impressive totals here.Yep they always do this year. Â Is not always the case though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 It really hasn't weakened much. Not sure what you're talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 It really hasn't weakened much. Not sure what you're talking about.Really. Â Go back the last 2 days of model runs and tell me that it hasnt weakened Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAWXFan1 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Low Pressure looks like it is trying to eject from the Rockies. A nice bulge to note coming into South Dakota. I would suspect this will be where the low pressure tries to come out. If this is to verify, the RAP from last night wouldn't be too far off. It was showing it in Northern South Dakota rather than Central. It is also where the 12Z NAM showed the low pressure coming out, which is exciting. This would make me believe that the GFS may be slightly too far south. However, either could still verify. Des Moines metro will be fun to follow as the NAM didn't look as promising for the southern portions this morning. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s13/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1420469053944 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 hearing only 1-3" for chicago againA general 2-5", less north, more south of I-80... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Really. Â Go back the last 2 days of model runs and tell me that it hasnt weakenedYes, it hasn't weakened much. Still looks like a solid 6-9" for some areas, but you can keep making attempts at justifying yourself if you wish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Saw this post from Mike Hammernick this morning about 45 minutes ago... https://twitter.com/WGNWeatherGuy/status/552107245757280256/photo/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Saw this post from Mike Hammernick this morning about 45 minutes ago... https://twitter.com/WGNWeatherGuy/status/552107245757280256/photo/1... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Yes, it hasn't weakened much. Still looks like a solid 6-9" for some areas, but you can keep making attempts at justifying yourself if you wish.Do I have to go back and post every single model run to prove to you that it has not weakened?  And how do you define "it hasnt weakened much"? 2 mb? 4mb? 6mb? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 In 42 hours the GFS has increased the pressure 4mb at 0z tuesday....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 12z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Radar really filling in with some nice returns in Nebraska. Unfortunately for me in Omaha, it looks like it will go north of us by about 20 miles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sven Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Nice snow bands coming out of central Nebraska, might pick a quick 1-perhaps 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 SREF has been looking quite good for our area for a number of runs now(between 6"-8")Â Not sure how this is going to play out but with high ratios and a deep DGZ we should do fairly well even with the lower qpf. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Latest HRRR....still snowing a bit in N IL at the end of the run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Seems to be coming in a little wetter for our area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 WRF looking better as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lcp Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 What is the start/stop time looking like for DBQ for this event? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 heard the models looking better for wisconsin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks like iowa is in a prime spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 What is the start/stop time looking like for DBQ for this event?Looks like precip begins to break out near RFD around 6:00pm, ORD 7:30pm and lasts for a good 6 hours or so... Latest HRRR..a little more generous with qpf totals...still snowing a little bit in N IL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks like iowa is in a prime spot. iowa looks good for lots of snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Radio said start time around 3 to 4pm, not sure of the end time. I am done with the models and going off radar now.  T minus 3 hours! Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter  78.1"  Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage  : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow  : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 12z Euro...DSM is in the jackpot zone towards DVN... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Time to watch the radar returns....enjoy the heavy snow in IA boys! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAWXFan1 Posted January 5, 2015 Report Share Posted January 5, 2015 Tom, it looks like Des Moines is just to the south of the Jackpot area on the 12Z ECMWF. Certainly looks closest to the NAM. I would be on edge if I were in the Des Moines Metro area. GFS and RGEM still saying yes, but looks like others are on the line with the southern extent of the precip. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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