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January 5th/6th Potential Clipper

Money

By Money
in East of the Rockies

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Thundersnow12
Thundersnow12

It wont. The combination of strong WAA, fronto banding, and an extremely deep DGZ all lead to the threat of warning criteria amounts

Scott26
Scott26

We look to be in a pretty good spot snowman. There is a bit of model discrepancy, but generally the track is fairly similar between the Euro, GFS, PGFS and even the NAM. The NAM and Euro are a tinge n

Scott26
Scott26

I have no clue where you got this from. That is definitely not the case...

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East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

Posted
Posted

Not happening with this system.

While I'm very confident this is pretty solid in its track right now, you just can never say that until the storm is actually occurring. My fear right now is that this thing will come in further south than even advertised right now. Hope not, but man some systems can take bug swings out of nowhere, just when it seemed things were set in stone. Seen it happen many times. Hope that is not the case this time. Really excited to get a meaningful snowfall.

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Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

Posted
Posted

18z is the strongest run yet. Looks like Ames up towards Waterloo get hit the hardest. Going to be really close call for Des Moines. Looks to be on the very sharp cutoff line. probably about a 50 mile difference between getting 1" vs getting upwards of 12". Jealous of Iowa right now. Hoping for atleast 2-4" still here in SE MN.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

18z is the strongest run yet. Looks like Ames up towards Waterloo get hit the hardest. Going to be really close call for Des Moines. Looks to be on the very sharp cutoff line. probably about a 50 mile difference between getting 1" vs getting upwards of 12". Jealous of Iowa right now. Hoping for atleast 2-4" still here in SE MN.

Ya no doubt, I would be on the edge it if I were in DSM right now.  What a crazy cut-off but if your in that band, the Heavens will unload the White Stuff!

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

Posted
Posted

Thanks Bud and GoSaints....I'll take 6" and run! If we get more great, either way you look at it, the glacier will begin to build.

Tom would take much of a wobble north for chi town to good into the good stuff it seems. Weak clippers tend to hit the south trend the last 24 hours but last minute north wobbles are seen at times for the stronger ones.

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FV-Mike Community Regular

FV-Mike

Posted
Posted

Little tidbit from LOT's afternoon disco.

 

THIS TREND AND CONSIDERING THE DOWNWARD
TREND IN OTHER GUIDANCE WILL SETTLE ON LIQUID VALUES AROUND 0.3 IN
WHICH COMBINED WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 15-20:1 CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 3
TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH BANDING SUPPORTIVE OF AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES. SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO BE VERY INTENSE...LIKELY BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES AT TIMES FOR SOME AREAS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
IMPACT. COVERAGE OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SO
MOST AREAS LOOK TO ACHIEVE THE LOWER TO MID END OF THE RANGE. BEST
OR MOST PROLONGED BANDED POTENTIAL IS FAVORED GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A MENDOTA TO SOUTH CHICAGO METRO TO RENSSELAER LINE AND AM
WONDERING IF MAY IT END UP BEING FOCUSED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THAT. HAVE NOT TWEAKED TIMING MUCH WITH START TIME 00-03Z FROM WEST
TO EAST AND THE THE PEAK INTENSITY WINDOW IN THE 3-6 HRS AFTER
ONSET...BUT AGAIN THIS MAY NEED TO BE SPED UP SLIGHTLY.
 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

 

 

Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

312 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2015

 

...BITTER COLD TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR SOME MONDAY...

 

.BITTER TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH

AT LEAST THURSDAY. 20 TO 40 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE COMMON

DURING THE MORNINGS AND NIGHTS.

 

A POTENT WINTER STORM MOVES IN MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXITING

OVERNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST

IOWA...LESSER AMOUNTS MOVING NORTH. 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL

RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVY SNOW...WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS

ACROSS THE REGION IN UNDER 6 HOURS.

 

THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR SOME BEGINNING WITH

THE MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE AND LASTING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY WITH THE ONSET OF THE

SNOW.

 

IAZ010-029-030-050515-

/O.UPG.KARX.WS.A.0001.150105T2100Z-150106T0900Z/

/O.NEW.KARX.WS.W.0001.150105T2100Z-150106T0900Z/

/O.CON.KARX.WC.Y.0001.150104T2300Z-150105T1800Z/

WINNESHIEK-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...OELWEIN

312 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2015

 

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM CST

TUESDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM

MONDAY TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

 

* WIND CHILLS FROM 15 AND 30 BELOW ZERO...COLDEST FROM LATE

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

 

* THE COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CAUSE FROSTBITE IN AS LITTLE AS 30

MINUTES TO EXPOSED SKIN.

 

* HEAVY SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

 

* SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

* 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR ACCUMULATION RATES IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

 

* ROAD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY WITH ONSET OF SNOW.

TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS VERY QUICKLY.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT COLD AIR AND THE WIND WILL

COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA

CAN OCCUR IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT

AND GLOVES.

 

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA

FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN

EMERGENCY. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE

CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

 

&&

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