Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[gabel23]

Holy cow how things have changed! My grid says 2-4" but models keep getting wetter and wetter! Hoping for an upgrade by this afternoon. Currently looking at light snow in shelby...

[Jaycee]

Holy cow how things have changed! My grid says 2-4" but models keep getting wetter and wetter! Hoping for an upgrade by this afternoon. Currently looking at light snow in shelby...

Crazy right?? NWS saying 3-7" in LNK. Not sure if that's underestimated, so hard to tell at this point.

 

RGEM gives us thundersnow! not sure how accurate but looks like a possibility

[Snowlover76]

Crazy right?? NWS saying 3-7" in LNK. Not sure if that's underestimated, so hard to tell at this point.

 

RGEM gives us thundersnow! not sure how accurate but looks like a possibility

The RGEM is super accurate in this range.

[Troop]

Good job calling this one Tom.  You had it from the get go and stuck with it.  Well done.

[james1976]

Is it just me or does the precip shield looking to be heading more east on the radar?

[Tom]

Good job calling this one Tom.  You had it from the get go and stuck with it.  Well done.

It'll be interesting to see this storm cycle back through in mid March.  Hoping to see some big blocking then and this could spin up another monster during cycle #4.  Long range models pointing towards blocking to hold into Spring.  Enjoy the snow!

[Snowlover76]

When is the NWS in Omaha gonna update? 

[Money]

12z GFS about the same. Maybe a tad wetter in N. IL.

 

A bit south towards the NW part of the storm 

[WBadgersW]

The RGEM came in North

[Blugga]

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/48hrSnowForecast/ord.jpg

[Money]

RGEM came in much farther north and a bit wetter.

 

GFS showing 24 inch amounts in S. MI. Widespread 14-18 in N. IL 

[Jack Frost]

When they are confident changes need to be made. If only we had a couple of degrees colder. we have had moderate snow in Lincoln at times this morning.

[centralweather44]

When is the NWS in Omaha gonna update?

Usually between 1130 and 1230

[Money]

12z NAM Bufkit:

 

ORD: 15.7

OSH: 0.6

MKE: 8.4

MSN: 4.5

LSE: 2.6

DBQ: 9.5

 

6z GFS Bufkit:

 

ORD: 12.9

OSH: 4.1

MKE: 10.3

MSN: 4.4

LSE: 4.6

DBQ: 12.8

[Madtown]

Wonder if I get into a wsw?

[WBadgersW]

Let's lock in the 12z GFS. I think that would make most people here happy.

[Tom]

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!  12z GFS going bonkers...GHD repeat in the mix!  It starts to really explode this system in IL/IN/MI....unbelievable!

[Jaycee]

GFS is killer. Anyone have RGEM maps??

[Maxim]

Wondering if we might be upgraded to a blizzard warning?

[Tom]

Can you say....here Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard!!!!!!  12z GFS has wind gusts of 40mph+ for  IL/IN/MI at 33hr for a good 12hours+.  That would justify Blizzard conditions.  This is insane!

[Money]

RGEM

 

http://i60.tinypic.com/2qkuo9z.jpg

[Money]

7.5-10= 0.3-0.4 QPF

10-15= 0.4-0.6 QPF

15-20= 0.6-0.8 QPF

20-25=0.8-1.0 QPF

25-30= 1.0-1.2 QPF

[Snowlover76]

25-30 here. Wow.

[james1976]

GFS even as a 12" lolipop over me for the first time

[Madtown]

Wow MSN numbers really low

[Money]

And people on here were making fun of the ukie...

[educatorjen]

These are the biggest flakes I have ever seen...(Florida girl) 

[Money]

Wow MSN numbers really low

 

You are good for at least 4-5 if not a bit more. 

[6789]

OMG! THAT GFS baby! Lock it in! If I got 16" from this I would be SPEECHLESS! 

[Tom]

JB is going to eat is words by saying this storm would not explode and cut farther NW.  His area in C PA see's snow transition to rain...how dismal that would be since he was hyping this storm to hit the East Coast again.  Are we seeing a 1978 repeat???  I think so!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Wow MSN numbers really low

'

The last RGEM run must've been a south outlier, because even this north bump looks south with the QPF.

[Tom]

I can't wait to see the GGEM/EURO runs in a bit...what a freakin' run on the GFS.  Every single run since 3 days ago is just exploding qpf totals with this system.  4 years ago to this day we saw what was a memorable Blizzard that blossomed out of the deep south in TX.  Today, Jan 2015, we are seeing something similar and I'm glad to see that THIS time the Plains are cashing in on some nice snowfall totals.  Finally, Finally, Finally....we are seeing this forum have POSITIVITY from the Plains to the Lakes!!!

[Money]

Both RGEM and GGEM were on the southern end of guidance. GFS owned the EURO last storm. Hoping it can do it again.

[Money]

I can't wait to see the GGEM/EURO runs in a bit...what a freakin' run on the GFS.  Every single run since 3 days ago is just exploding qpf totals with this system.  4 years ago to this day we saw what was a memorable Blizzard that blossomed out of the deep south in TX.  Today, Jan 2015, we are seeing something similar and I'm glad to see that THIS time the Plains are cashing in on some nice snowfall totals.  Finally, Finally, Finally....we are seeing this forum have POSITIVITY from the Plains to the Lakes!!!

 

Not me, but whatever. It is what it is.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Not me, but whatever. It is what it is.

 

I'm sorry Money, I know you said a few weeks ago you were sick of winter, so this won't make things feel much better I know.  Hopefully the rest of February and March produces!

[Tom]

Not me, but whatever. It is what it is.

You, Snowshoe and Winterfreak pretty much miss this storm.  Def sucks for sure man.  I know how much you love snow storms.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I think MKE is going to cash in big with Lehs snowfall.  You guys normally do good when the wind is out of the NE, especially since the winds will be off the lake for such a long period of time.  The only good thing you can take from the warm weather we had in December, is that the lake waters are still so warm and this will just add to snowfall totals.

 

Skilling's RPM model nailed the GHD Blizzard and also the east coast storm.  Look at the snowfall totals that are now just showing up in their latest model run.  Some 16-20" totals in Lake/Kenosha county! Cook gets 12-16" which is sizing up to the SREF's.  Great trends and we are getting closer to the event.

 

Thanks for the map, Tom, ironically if that verified it would be our biggest storm since.....February 1-2, 2011!  It must be something about Groundhog Day and the day prior and big Midwest storms.

 

A little tidbit, the movie Groundhog Day was actually filmed in Woodstock, Illinois, and given the theme, it's only appropriate that it's a good omen for Northern Illinois!

[Money]

You, Snowshoe and Winterfreak pretty much miss this storm.  Def sucks for sure man.  I know how much you love snow storms.

 

Just seeing this miss like 15-20 miles to the south is what sucks. Although if GFS was right, it would still be 3-4 here or so. 

[NEJeremy]

25-30 here. Wow.

That's not 25-30" of snow, just to be clear. That's 25-30 mm's of precip which equals over an inch of qpf.

[Snowlover76]

That's not 25-30" of snow, just to be clear. That's 25-30 mm's of precip which equals over an inch of qpf.

I know.