bud2380 Posted February 16, 2015 Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 Gfs slams almost all of Nebraska with next weekends storm. Hits Missouri too but fizzles out in Iowa. Gem similar. Let's see what the euro does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 Gfs slams almost all of Nebraska with next weekends storm. Hits Missouri too but fizzles out in Iowa. Gem similar. Let's see what the euro does.Some of the 00z Euro Ensembles looked amazing from the Plains to the Lakes. What bothers me is the sky high AO that doesn't support a phasing system and more in line what the GFS/GGEM are showing. Let's see if the Euro holds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 16, 2015 Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 Dang massive H. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted February 16, 2015 Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 CFSv2 tanking the PNA late month...i am also hearing that the ao and nao will be positve late this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 16, 2015 Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 Dang massive H.Yeah that high just keeps eating away at anything really moving east. On the 12Z GFS the snow barely makes it to eastern Nebraska and Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z Euro showing a weak Pan Handle Hook type system...pretty warm in the Plains and its all rain... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 16, 2015 Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 00z Euro...Lol at the screw hole near Lafayette and Indianapolis. IND has been screwed over so many times this winter, kinda feel bad for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 16, 2015 Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lol at the screw hole near Lafayette and Indianapolis. IND has been screwed over so many times this winter, kinda feel bad for them.Ya, it seems Indianapolis and Minneapolis have had the donut Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 16, 2015 Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 18Z GFS squashes the weekend potential into nothing while the 12z JMA has abundant moisture. Not sure what to think of this system but the way things have gone I am not expecting much so if we do get something then that would be a bonus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 16, 2015 Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 GFS says yeah right to weekend storm. Set up would scream thirty three and rain as it stands. Still some time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Could be lots of rain or even an ice storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 get ready the arctic cold air is coming according to the snowman on his weather blog and chicago is in the bullseye too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 get ready the arctic cold air is coming according to the snowman on his weather blog and chicago is in the bullseye too.Remember Winter was supposed to be over mid February??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Hope this ain't some April Fools joke..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 GFS is super warm and way south. Yikes on that run. Was kind of looking forward too it too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Brrrrrrrr!!!!!!! Its cold outside. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Remember Winter was supposed to be over mid February???obviously it hasn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 The new JMA 3 Month Forecast was updated today. Before we begin, let's see what the model saw back on Jan 16th for the month of Feb. As you can see, the 500mb pattern had an Eastern CONUS storm track that really ended up being an East Coast favored storm track for the first part of Feb. Signs are pointing that the central CONUS is now getting into the action as we close out the remainder of the month. The 850's from the Rockies and points East have below normal anomalies but not terribly cold if you would take this map into consideration. Having said that, we all know how cold it has been and will be getting as we move forward. Fast forward to its new March forecast, you see a huge NW NAMER ridge and a 500mb pattern indicating an active storm track farther west from it's Feb forecast. You can see the Pacific Jet pointing towards the west coast that should translate to storm systems hitting the Rockies/4 Corners region which should trigger an active southern branch. Now, taking into account how cold the actual temps will turn out from the Midwest to the East this month...we can draw some conclusions as to how cold March may end up becoming from the Plains on East. The March map shows much more area with below normal anomalies and may brew up some late season storm systems next month. We see this also in the CFSv2 and JAMSTEC models as well. I really think Winter is far from over for a lot of this nation. I could see a pull back as we head into March as the warm part of the LRC begins, but we may develop more blocking that can shunt that down a bit. Time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z GGEM...showing more snow in the Plains...high ratio snowfall as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like the next 45 days or so is going to put us to sleep! Colder and drier. Not sure how it could be drier? Not good for farmers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 00z Euro...model discrepancy is unreal... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Daytime temps on Thursday.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Amazing how fast a positive trend can end. Hoping for one last hoorah before winter ends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Things are looking cold later this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Quick bursts of heavy snow just came through for a nice covering. This should be the case on and off through tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 12Z GFS looks like its coming north! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah much better run on GFS. Colder looking for here. Let the games begin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z Ukie looks like its standing its ground from previous runs as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like the next 45 days or so is going to put us to sleep! Colder and drier. Not sure how it could be drier? Not good for farmers.Mar-May looking very wet in the Plains/Midwest on the JMA/JAMSTEC/CFSv2. I think this will be another "Garden of Eden" Summer for the central CONUS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Can't catch a break with these storms. East coast is just getting DESTROYED this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Several big hits on the GFS ensembles HR 108 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f108.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Warm storm system. Many of us would have to worry about p-type if the 6z GFS were to pan out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 The positive is that there's a ton of moisture. The Gulf is wide open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z Euro showing nada..basically a rain storm for southern Midwest....850's to warm down south... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 This storm has WAA written all over it so definitely going to be some precip issues. There is a ton of moisture with this system and if we can only get more of it thrown into the cold sector then it could become interesting. Not too concerned what the Euro is showing at this point as I don't like its performance this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z GFS Mean if anyone is interested: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Can't catch a break with these storms. East coast is just getting DESTROYED this year.Skilling made an interesting point that of the 95 inches that Boston has received this year, 90 came in the last 3 weeks. Likewise Philadelphia and DC are running below normal. Shows you how quickly things can change Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z Euro showing nada..basically a rain storm for southern Midwest....850's to warm down south...Just wanted to mention that the bias the Euro has is hanging the energy back too long. It seems to do that quite a bit so I think once we get within 36hrs or so we will see a different look to the Euro runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Tom, I see you lurking. Curious to know what your thoughts are so far with the 12z runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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