Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like the 12z GFS goes east! Still closer to the Euro/Canadian than the 0z was. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 The Canadian is much colder. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022412/gem_T850_us_34.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 29F this morning. Global cooling is back, baby!Told you change was coming. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022412/gem_z500a_us_29.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/150224183623.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Told you change was coming.Might hit warmest February on record right on the nose as opposed to surpassing it by 2-3 degrees! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Might hit warmest February on record right on the nose as opposed to surpassing it by 2-3 degrees!It's not your fault. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/150224183623.gif Classic Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Timing moved up to 144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/150224183623.gif just saw this, looks like a quick-hitter, but I'll take it. Just a little east and it is just dry and cool. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Euro holding steady as well. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Very few ensemble members showing anything similar to the EURO or Canadian. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Been busy lately, and haven't checked into the weather at all until now. Looks like some potential cold/snow is on the way, and just by doing a quick check, it looks like it might not just be quick hitting like someone mentioned above. I wish this would have came into play earlier in the season, but tropical forcing is projected to stall out over the MC region, which is perfect for us. It stalled out over the IO recently, which gave the East coast quite the storm. Typhoon Rule also has cold anomalies in place over Japan right where we want them, which remain for quite some time. Wouldn't be surprised if much of the first half of March resulted in Western troughing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Very few ensemble members showing anything similar to the EURO or Canadian. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.pngI was just going to post something similar. The GFS ensemble mean is actually the warmest it's been in days for the mid-long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Very few ensemble members showing anything similar to the EURO or Canadian. Still quite a few cold ones for Vancouver, though. Still lots of uncertainty obviously.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 18Z GFS holds steady... in fact its a little farther east. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 I was just going to post something similar. The GFS ensemble mean is actually the warmest it's been in days for the mid-long range. Nope, 12z was actually the coldest GFS ensembles of the last few runs. Euro and Canadian ensembles look nice. Models seem to be coming around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ridgy start to March on the 18z! Change!1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nope, 12z was actually the coldest GFS ensembles of the last few runs. Euro and Canadian ensembles look nice. Models seem to be coming around.We'll see. I bet the Euro and Canadian cave in the next few runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 We'll see. I bet the Euro and Canadian cave in the next few runs.With our luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 With our luckJust the theme of this winter. Either a dry glancing blow or nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ridgy start to March on the 18z! Change!1Failure to consistently depress the shift key is sooooo 2007. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 By the way... NOGAPS says NO snow for Bellingham! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Failure to consistently depress the shift key is sooooo 2007. Are you feeling this one? I am sort of leaning towards the GFS with an eastward cave by the ECMWF in the next couple days. But the 12Z ECMWF was pretty emphatic. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wow, surprised how quiet this month has been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 By the way... NOGAPS says NO snow for Bellingham!JMA is chilly though! Pretty much a 2-23-14 repeat on there. Would be a nice snowstorm for Bellingham. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015022412/jma_T850_us_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015022412/jma_T850_us_9.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Are you feeling this one? I am sort of leaning towards the GFS with an eastward cave by the ECMWF in the next couple days. But the 12Z ECMWF was pretty emphatic.I haven't been paying enough attention. After all, impacts will likely be minimal for the lowlands even if the colder solutions are closer to reality. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 By the way... NOGAPS says NO snow for Bellingham! JMA says we may be in business though! Sorry south-of-Stanwood folks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 I haven't been paying enough attention. After all, impacts will likely be minimal for the lowlands even if the colder solutions are closer to reality. That is true, Looked at the details from the majestic 12Z ECMWF and it shows rain on Monday into Monday night and then clearing on Tuesday with cool NE flow. No lowland snow and sunny after the main event so probabaly highs in the mid to upper 40s with enough wind to keep overnight temps up... just to annoy those who desperately care how cold the air is outside while they are sleeping. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 JMA is chilly though! Pretty much a 2-23-14 repeat on there. Would be a nice snowstorm for Bellingham. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015022412/jma_T850_us_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015022412/jma_T850_us_9.png Ha, didn't even see this post. This guy gets it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 24, 2015 Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 Failure to consistently depress the shift key is sooooo 2007.Figured it was high time to bring it back1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2015 That is true, Looked at the details from the majestic 12Z ECMWF and it shows rain on Monday into Monday night and then clearing on Tuesday with cool NE flow. No lowland snow and sunny after the main event so probabaly highs in the mid to upper 40s with enough wind to keep overnight temps up... just to annoy those who desperately care how cold the air is outside while they are sleeping. Eh, it wouldn't take much of a westward shift to give us this http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php Likely? No, but 6-7 days out that type of solution is still potentially on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Eh, it wouldn't take much of a westward shift to give us this http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php Likely? No, but 6-7 days out that type of solution is still potentially on the table. Of course the potential is there. That is why I was asking which way Matt was leaning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow, surprised how quiet this month has been.It snowed in Colorado and rained in California. Wise up. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Figured it was high time to bring it back18 years is way too soon to hope for the whole nostalgic charm angle. Try "talk to the hand" or something... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Eh, it wouldn't take much of a westward shift to give us this http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php Likely? No, but 6-7 days out that type of solution is still potentially on the table.I think that would make up for our winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Shouldn't model countdowns be in effect? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Shouldn't model countdowns be in effect? No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 No.Old salty dog... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ensemble madness? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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