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7 hours ago, Tom said:

MDW is looking rather cool and crisp but with plenty of sunshine as Canadian HP dominates the wx pattern.  Some spots may struggle to get out of the 60's on Sat, but Sun and Mon temps boost into the 70's.  Perfect bon fire wx as I'm sure the smell of burning wood will be in the air!  Love it!  Before then, however, Friday looks like a raw, wet, windy day for the lower lakes region as some spots close to the lake may struggle to get out of the 40's!  Yikes!  

0z Euro still advertising widespread regional rains...

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I really hope this happens, because long range the GL's look to get warm and dry again.  

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7 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I really hope this happens, because long range the GL's look to get warm and dry again.  

It’ll remain active across our region into early June.  NW flow aloft will produce fronts galore.

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I'm not sure what we'll get Thursday morning/midday.  A couple models, like the Euro, show a blob of heavy rain moving across all of eastern Iowa.  Other models, like the UK and GDPS, show a strong MCS diving southeast into southern Iowa and northern Missouri, with not much falling up here.  It's possible we may not even get any thunder if the storms veer south.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Another  .10  my home this pm.   Getting a bit absurd.  Measurable  rain on 10 of 11 days!  Almost 100% has fallen during daylight hours.  2.2 during these 11 days.  About 4.3 for May so far.  Its been a complete  war to mow 130 customers.  Knocked out another 28 yards today.  With  rapid growth rates of grass currently we can barely  be a day late. A  total struggle.

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ORD officially made it to 90F today…this marks the 1st 90F+ of the season.  It’s a remarkable recovery from the mid 50’s this morning.  Thankfully, DP’s held in the 50’s which made it tolerable and also one of the reasons why the temps were able to rise so quickly.

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Ugly looking forecast for Friday around the GL's region...October wx in late May...0z Euro showing highs barely reaching 50F for NE IL as a raw, wet, windy day will be on tap.  I can almost guarantee I'll be putting the furnace on later this week. 

 

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Meantime, it's a beautiful July-like morning with a temp of 73F and a slight SW breeze.  A touch of humidity is in the air that hopefully will help fuel some storms later tonight.  Gonna enjoy these warmer days before the big cool down.

 

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

ORD officially made it to 90F today…this marks the 1st 90F+ of the season.  It’s a remarkable recovery from the mid 50’s this morning.  Thankfully, DP’s held in the 50’s which made it tolerable and also one of the reasons why the temps were able to rise so quickly.

Sounds like the extremes that I experience around here. 

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While we wait for the expected rain fall over the next few days it is still dry in many parts of west Michigan. That was not the case to the NE of GR on Sunday where just to the north and north east a lot of rain fell. And there were some very cold afternoon temperatures as well. Yesterday was a very nice warm day and I would expect the same for today. The official high for Grand Rapids was 85. Here at my house the high was 87.  The overnight low both here at my house and officially at the airport was 66. If that 66 holds until midnight it would make the minimum for today the 2nd warmest in recorded history at GR. There has been a trend this month of some very cold weather and then some very warm weather there have been many days/nights with highs and lows in the top 10 for warm and cold. Making for a up and down month at this point there have been 5 days with departures of -10 or better and 5 days with departures of +10 or better and we have a chance of a few more on both sides of that coming up this week. At this time it is now sunny and 76 here.

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My potential for severe weather Thursday looks dependent on how strong the morning MCS is and how quickly skys can clear out.  If Iowa is the target of the Wednesday night MCS than my chances for a rough afternoon go way up.

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Another 0.30” from rain that has moved through the last several hours. No need to visit the Amazon Rainforest, just come to Central Nebraska. Many large rain chances in the next week. They are talking about several inches tomorrow night. I keep saying it, I don’t remember a time when things have looked this lush. 

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Only 0.22" here this month.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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18Z HRRR is pretty scary looking for Nebraska tomorrow. Develops what would probably be tornadic supercells out ahead of the main line tomorrow evening in east central Nebraska and then has a big squall line go across the state.

Shows 3-6" of rain for east central Nebraska as well.

Very impressive soundings as well even well into the overnight when surface based CAPE normally disappears. Most models are showing 2-3k of surface based CAPE and 40-60 knots of shear all through the night. Could be a pretty bad night Wednesday night.

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Omaha NWS AFD:

A vigorous shortwave trough will move through the northern Plains
while a surface low develops from eastern CO into eastern NE by
12z Thursday. A warm front will lift north ahead of the surface
low with dewpoints rising back into the lower/mid 60s to the south
of that boundary. Consensus of available model data suggest that
storms will quickly grow upscale into a convective system over
western NE during the evening hours. Farther east, various models
have shown some signal for more discrete storm development along
and north of the warm front during the evening from central into
eastern NE.

There is considerable model variance in the characteristics of
the low-level moisture profile in the vicinity of the warm front,
especially from mid to late evening. The nocturnal strengthening
of the low-level jet will result in large, clockwise-curved
hodographs, suggesting a conditional supercell tornado threat
downstream from the evolving QLCS, assuming 1) in situ storm
initiation along the warm front, and 2) storms are surface-based
within the moistening boundary layer. Otherwise, expect that the
QLCS will track southeast along the immediate cool side of the
warm front with the system moving through the majority of our area
after midnight. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather
hazard. However, tornadoes will be possible with any embedded
mesovortices and/or HP supercells. Locally heavy rainfall will
also be a concern.
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53 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yikes!!

hrrr_2021052518_034_40.65--96.94.png

I can't tell you one thing from that so I'm glad other people are able to tell me ☠️ On another note, the 12-3 am time frame is pretty annoying. That was around the window basically every severe storm rolled through Lincoln last summer. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Another day, another trace.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Dark sky to the North. I won't be getting any rain from this but the airport should.

0525211904_HDR.jpg

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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4 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

I can't tell you one thing from that so I'm glad other people are able to tell me ☠️ On another note, the 12-3 am time frame is pretty annoying. That was around the window basically every severe storm rolled through Lincoln last summer. 

I understand most of the numbers and indices thanks to my meteorology classes at UNL and lots of studying online. The curved shape of the hodographs up I n the top right is about as perfect as you will see for a tornado sounding!

I agree. It’s nice to be able to see the storm structure etc. Not to mention I’d rather have the possible power outages during the day although I guess it’s not as warm at night.

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8 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Hawkeye is about to get the second nice storm of this week. 

Yeah, I've been following it all night.  It didn't look good for us, but the storms to the north have gradually sunk southward and built up at the south end.  Now the strongest cell is about to move into Cedar Rapids.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The strongest cell moved over me, but it was still just a low-end thunderstorm.  There was lightning and thunder, but not a lot of it, and the thunder was not loud at all.  I picked up 0.39" of rain.  It's nice to get a thunderstorm in such a quiet year.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I woke up around 3:00am to a torrential downpour as the rain was pounding my sky light.  Couldn't go back to sleep so this may be a rough morning.  Looks like GRR is getting rocked by heavy rain as well.  Glad to see nature soak those who are in a severe drought.

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Only 0.02” from a good cell that just grazed here at 2:30am. I slept through it all, and judging from the lightning and radar animations I should have been awakened.lol 

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So far the latest reading out of ORD is .75 of welcomed rainfall...can't wait for the sun to come out later this morning and go for a walk.  Looks like a splendid day on tap with lowering DP's and temps topping out in the mid 80's.  Today's the last warm day before some really chilly air invades the region both Thu and Fri.   #HappyHumpDay

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Here at my house I recorded 1.09" of rain fall overnight. Will have to see what GRR official total rain fall  the event ends up at but for here that is the most rain for any event since September 8th last year. The overnight low and current temperature is 61. 

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I had a quick moving thunderstorm come through yesterday afternoon and I picked up .31 inches.  Strong storms are in the forecast tonight and everything is on the table tomorrow as far as severe weather.

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@CentralNebWeather, your in the bullseye my friend...hunker down and stay safe out there bud.  Take some pics of the towering thunderheads if you can.  You should be seeing them develop after lunch time today and the sun angle could be perfect for snapping photos out from behind the storm clouds.

 

day1otlk_1200.gif

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

@CentralNebWeather, your in the bullseye my friend...hunker down and stay safe out there bud.  Take some pics of the towering thunderheads if you can.  You should be seeing them develop after lunch time today and the sun angle could be perfect for snapping photos out from behind the storm clouds.

 

day1otlk_1200.gif

I will my friend. Already planning to put our kids vehicles in buildings at the farm east of town in case of hail. Local mets doing a good job getting the word out. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Snow showers waking up for me this morning, melting as it hits the ground mixed with sleet.  Definitely the latest snow I have experienced in Minnesota. 

I was waiting for this to happen...models were suggesting it and now your experiencing it...it may be @Madtown turn later Thu pm.

 

Edit: I'm wondering now if this sets the stage for the opportunity to see the shortest window between your "last flake and first flake" sometime in October??

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The 12z HRRR is showing the scenario I feared.  By Thursday morning the storms dive into Missouri.  As that happens, the rain to the north craps out as it moves into my area and points east.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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47 minutes ago, Tom said:

I was waiting for this to happen...models were suggesting it and now your experiencing it...it may be @Madtown turn later Thu pm.

 

Edit: I'm wondering now if this sets the stage for the opportunity to see the shortest window between your "last flake and first flake" sometime in October??

I am guessing it would take September snow to set that type of record this far north even with a late may snowfall.  

For posterity...

image.png.6d4b691061e0e1621963d0a76a456442.png

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The NAM has temps in the low to mid 40s across eastern Iowa Friday.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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In addition to the very cold Friday highs, the NAM and RDPS are also suggesting frost or freeze in the region Saturday morning.  I really hope they are overdoing it.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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