March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

The temp soared once the fog eroded between 11 and noon.  We have shot up into the low 60s, which I thought would be tough to do after the delay.  There is very little wind, too, so it's pretty nice.

[Tom]

I can't imagine what the low 60's will feel like next Monday.  It looks, feels and smells like Spring out there today.  The calm breeze certainly made it feel much nicer.

 

By mid next week though, this warm spell will be over and more seasonal to slightly below avg temps come back into the region.  12z Euro Ensembles still going strong on a drastic cool down late next week.

[Tom]

Nation divided Week 1-2...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Seahawkfan]

62 here today Spring has arrived.

[East Dubzz]

60 here today, man did that feel amazing.

[NEJeremy]

72 here, felt amazing! Should be the first of 3 straight days in the 70s

[Tom]

My Grid has 67F for Monday!  It's going to feel like a summer tease...

 

Saw this tweet: "Italian city of Capracotta may have broken the world's 24hr snowfall record with 8.34ft!"

 

Talk about being buried!

 

[james1976]

My Grid has 67F for Monday!  It's going to feel like a summer tease...

 

Saw this tweet: "Italian city of Capracotta may have broken the world's 24hr snowfall record with 8.34ft!"

 

Talk about being buried!

 

I would prolly be scared if it snowed that much. And this is coming from a snow lover. Lol

[SE Wisconsin]

My Grid has 67F for Monday!  It's going to feel like a summer tease...

 

Saw this tweet: "Italian city of Capracotta may have broken the world's 24hr snowfall record with 8.34ft!"

 

Talk about being buried!

 

Where in the heck do you even put all that snow?  Look at how narrow that lane is!  Snow blower seems to just be blowing it back into the buildings.  I love snow but that's a little too much of a good thing!

[Tom]

The Sun is falling asleep and you can see the trend in this graphic.  Sun activity has peaked in Solar cycle 24 and heading south quite dramatically.  I'm not sure if many of you know, but with a low geomagnetic index this has been known to cause blocking in the northern latitudes.  It's pretty interesting to see that blocking will be developing over the next couple weeks and it seems to be correlating well with the AP index below:

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

 

 

In terms of the longer range pattern in the years ahead, scientists believe that the winters over the following 10-15 years will become more severe than what we have seen thus far.  The solar cycles are the main reasoning behind this theory.  Notice how in the current Solar Cycle 24 it has trended lower significantly.  By the year 2020, we may be entering a period most of us on this planet have yet to experience.

 

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

[gosaints]

Gonna get chilly eventually nice to see the GFS hold on to above average here through about the end of next week.  MSP tied a record yesterday.  

[gosaints]

As I expected the east coast will feel the brunt of the next cold shot..

[gosaints]

The warmth is nice but man what an anemic pattern we are stuck in as far as precip goes

[Tom]

OUCH!  That's gonna leave a mark...MI and points east going to get a smack in the face from Ol' Man Winter next Thu...

 

 

[gosaints]

OUCH!  That's gonna leave a mark...MI and points east going to get a smack in the face from Ol' Man Winter next Thu...

Yep not seeing anything to far out of the normal west of the mississippi.  

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015031112/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

[Tom]

Found this map that includes the total snowfall thus far this entire winter season...

[Niko]

Where in the heck do you even put all that snow?  Look at how narrow that lane is!  Snow blower seems to just be blowing it back into the buildings.  I love snow but that's a little too much of a good thing!

Yup...and some of the streets in Athens, Greece are even more narrow. Speaking of Greece, I love traveling there in the Summer time. I have a house on this Island called "Andros". I usually go and settle there. The beach is gorgeous and is literally 5 minutes away The water is so blue and clear, as if you were swimming in a pool.  The food is awesome as well. Everytime I go there, I gain weight, but I work out when I get back to the States. Nightlife is excellent too. Cafes and bars right on the beach. I recommend you go there. You will have a great time.

[indianajohn]

Hey Niko, nothing better then chilling in Greece on the beach with a "frappethaki"!!! My parents are from Astors 1.5 south of Athens it's a peninsula surrounded by beaches. Don't get to back as often I would like but planning to go this summer being how the tickets and the euro is cheap!!!

[Geos]

That picture of the snowfall in Capracotta is wild! Sounds like that would be a record breaker. I don't think LES belt areas downwind of Lake Erie or Ontario have ever gotten close to that!

 

Managed to get to 48° today before the lake breeze came barreling in. Today will be the last day of snow cover. Quite a bit of grass/ground showing now.

[Money]

Nice storm on the 0z euro around the 20th-21st 

[Grizzcoat]

Nice storm on the 0z euro around the 20th-21st 

this is basically it-- would be nice to shunt all these spring lovers back a few weeks. -

[jlp]

That would be awesome. I believe the Gfs is showing something around that timeframe as well.

[Niko]

Hey Niko, nothing better then chilling in Greece on the beach with a "frappethaki"!!! My parents are from Astors 1.5 south of Athens it's a peninsula surrounded by beaches. Don't get to back as often I would like but planning to go this summer being how the tickets and the euro is cheap!!!

Tell me about it indianajohn. Frappe and a game of backgammon at the same time really does it all..... (Backgammon is my favorite game). I play all three games of it. As for the Euro Currency, that can eat up some of your money when you go to make an exchange from dollar to Euro. I.E., if you give the bank, lets say, an $1000.00 dollars, you will probably get back around 500 or so in Euro money. That's not good because you just lost $500.00 dollars right on the spot. Too bad the Draxmi is not around anymore. I remember I used to get so much more money back from US dollar to Draxmi. Bummer!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

this is basically it-- would be nice to shunt all these spring lovers back a few weeks. -ecmwf_tsnow_mw_41.png

 

Lol, if you lived in Minneapolis this winter, I'm sure you'd be one of those spring lovers, they didn't have a storm over 4" all winter, and uncomfortable boredom is always worse than the pleasant boredom you get during spring, summer or fall when there's no interesting weather but at least temps are pretty nice.  It looks like you're trying to incite arguments, just discuss and move on.

[gosaints]

this is basically it-- would be nice to shunt all these spring lovers back a few weeks. -ecmwf_tsnow_mw_41.png

Lol the weather this week must have you depressed.  

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/nsm_depth/201503/nsm_depth_2015031205_Upper_Midwest.jpg

Your snow line is receeding rapidly.

[Tom]

It's Thursday, and ya'll know what day it is...your JMA Weekly update.  Nothing really new showing up with the JMA and going according to plan.  Before I talk about the update, it's interesting to note that the Euro Weeklies have done extremely well 10+ days out how this pattern would evolve this month.  It had the 10 day pullback right on schedule and had been showing that the cold coming back around the 20th of the month.

 

Week 1 looks seasonal across the board, except for the Plains and the West Coast where we begin to see the West Coast ridge blossom.

 

Week 2 (Day 10-16) would bring us towards the 21st as astronomical Spring will be in full gear, or will it???  If you recall, last week the JMA Week 3 & 4 maps were sniffing out the colder pattern that looked really cold to me.  Today's Week 2 run just shows you how much cold the model see's coming during this period.  The area near the Lakes are significantly below normal as well as the NE.  Classic blocking look with an Alaskan ridge to the west and a ridge to the east south of Greenland.

 

Week 3 & 4 (Day 17-30), wash/rinse/repeat....

[Tom]

this is basically it-- would be nice to shunt all these spring lovers back a few weeks. -ecmwf_tsnow_mw_41.png

Right on schedule, maybe a day later than I though but pretty darn close.  GGEM also seeing this storm system.  Hopefully nature can bring one last big storm for many on this forum.  SB storm repeat???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015031200/gem_asnow_us_40.png

[Snowlover76]

This weather is amazing.

[CentralNebWeather]

Yes please for Nebraska. We desperately need moisture. Don't like red flag warnings this early in March.

[Snowlover76]

Right on schedule, maybe a day later than I though but pretty darn close. GGEM also seeing this storm system. Hopefully nature can bring one last big storm for many on this forum. SB storm repeat???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015031200/gem_asnow_us_40.png

I sure hope the 20th is clear. I have a 7am flight out of Omaha.

[Tom]

Yes please for Nebraska. We desperately need moisture. Don't like red flag warnings this early in March.

I hope you guys start getting moisture out in the Plains.  When the warmer pattern of the LRC returns in late April/May the air will warm rapidly if there isn't enough moisture in the ground.

[CentralNebWeather]

Usually Minnesota worries about spring flooding but red flag warnings instead. What a strange year.

[Snowlover76]

I hope you guys start getting moisture out in the Plains. When the warmer pattern of the LRC returns in late April/May the air will warm rapidly if there isn't enough moisture in the ground.

How is next Friday looking?

[gosaints]

How is next Friday looking?

Looks good for the east coast. Wash rinse repeat

[Tom]

How is next Friday looking?

To early to say, but it may be stormy during this period in your region if the storm develops that a part of the LRC pattern.

[indianajohn]

Tell me about it indianajohn. Frappe and a game of backgammon at the same time really does it all..... (Backgammon is my favorite game). I play all three games of it. As for the Euro Currency, that can eat up some of your money when you go to make an exchange from dollar to Euro. I.E., if you give the bank, lets say, an $1000.00 dollars, you will probably get back around 500 or so in Euro money. That's not good because you just lost $500.00 dollars right on the spot. Too bad the Draxmi is not around anymore. I remember I used to get so much more money back from US dollar to Draxmi. Bummer!

Niko you dont have to worry about that this year Euro closing today around 1.08.....so on 1000 dollars you get back around 990.!!!

[Snowlover76]

To early to say, but it may be stormy during this period in your region if the storm develops that a part of the LRC pattern.

I just hope it's not snowy.

[Tom]

Niko you dont have to worry about that this year Euro closing today around 1.08.....so on 1000 dollars you get back around 990.!!!

Temporary pull back today, but USD is going up from here.  I would assume many American's will be traveling to Europe this year and enjoying the savings!  The weather out in Europe should be rather warm this year.  Maybe slightly cooler than normal in southern Europe which ain't bad anyway. Today, the USD buys 15.45 pesos!  Might as well plan a trip to Cancun as well!  Haha...nice to see the Dollar get stronger.

[Jaycee]

Snow??? How bout no, scott?? Gah. I'll most definitely take it though. Was laying out with my roommate (she's hot, needed an excuse to see her in a bikini   ) and our yard is cracking already, and it's only March. The grass seems like a wick, if I were to light it it'd go up in flames. We REALLY need some moisture around here, but man these temperatures are amazing. It was 70 degrees by noon and we're already approaching 80.

 

I remember discussing with Tom last year about how effective snow actually is with drought relief in the spring, as it kind of just sits on top of the ground and provides moisture by slowly absorbing into the turf. I hate to say it, but give me a snowstorm. We cannot go into another drought. I'd freak. Droughts are horrid and we've had way too many of them recently, so that's the last thing on my want list. Hopefully we can get moisture, I hope these maps pan out. 

 

Also, Tom, I went up 12 lbs since doing your leg workout, and also increased my squat by 100 lbs since the summer. Thanks again for the workout plan bro!

 

Lastly, check out the destruction the drought from 2012-2014 resulted in. Can't imagine what the farmers are thinking with red flag warnings issued already. This is a National problem guys, not just for us in Nebraska. Something to keep an eye on as prices of beef, corn, wheat, will skyrocket if we don't get some precipitation around here soon:

 

Financial assistance provided to livestock producers under LFP in Nebraska has been substantial due to the retroactive authority of the programs. As of January 6, 2015 payments made for qualifying LFP losses from October 1, 2011 to December 31, 2014 have totaled over $532.5 million (Table 1 http://go.unl.edu/pgrp). The largest payments made to Nebraska livestock producers occurred in 2012 with an accumulated total of almost $269.0 million for the year. Assistance provided during periods of the drought under the LFP make payments equal to 60 percent of the monthly feed cost for up to five months.

 

Here is the link to the full article if anyone is interested -  http://www.cattlenetwork.com/news/industry/livestock-forage-disaster-program-and-estimated-drought-losses-nebraska-2012-2014