3/1 - 3/3 Spring Storm Potential

[Hawkeye]

This system is dying on the models, becoming a total non-event.  The 12z nam only has a few hundredths of an inch of precip anywhere in Iowa.

[gosaints]

This system is dying on the models, becoming a total non-event.  The 12z nam only has a few hundredths of an inch of precip anywhere in Iowa.

Yep shat the bed.  Good luck fiding anything interesting on any model run for the next 2 weeks

[Seahawkfan]

It can't die. How can it be this was supposed to be the Big storm that was supposed to cripple the Midwest with Snow,Sleet, Freezing rain, Rain then back to Snow. Color me shocked. Clipper looks to have been the main event which has been the case all winter. Minus the super bowl storm.

[Snowshoe]

Feel bad for those in Wisco.  What was once a nice looking system is turning out to be a crap storm.

You summed up my winter right there!

[Tom]

WWA Issued from LOT:

 

 

Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1144 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE...

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER...ONE INCH IN THE METRO AREA...AND LIGHTER SOUTH. EXPECT A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
DURING THE AFTERNOON FARTHER NORTH. LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.


ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
030145-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0008.150303T0900Z-150303T1800Z/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...
OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...
WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...
FOWLER
1144 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015 /1244 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ TO
NOON CST /1 PM EST/ TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ TO NOON CST /1 PM EST/ TUESDAY.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH.
SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATING TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH.

* MAIN IMPACT...A PERIOD OF HEAVY... WET SNOW AND THEN A WINTRY
MIX WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

[Money]

Thanks Frankie!

 

[gosaints]

18z NAM gonna cut through south dakota... LOL

[Maxim]

lmao

[james1976]

what kinda storm track is this? lol

[gosaints]

what kinda storm track is this? lol

hardly a storm

[Snowshoe]

What a suckfest of a winter! Probably lucky to get 3" tomorrow which would still rank it in the top 5 snowstorms of the winter.

AN AREA OF MODERATE (BRIEFLY HEAVY?) SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...AS STRONG WAA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QC FORCING
PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. NOSE OF A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
INTO EAST-CENTRAL WI AS WELL...WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT THERE.
FORCING/LIFT IS GREATEST DURING THE 12-18Z PERIOD...WHEN THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL FALL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE ON THE
LOWER END OF SNOW TOTALS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5" AND 3.5". NAM
HAS CONTINUED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF IN
THE MIDDLE OR TOWARD THE HIGHER VALUES. SREF SNOW PLUMES RANGE
FROM 2 TO 7 INCHES. SO THERE STILL REMAINS SOME CONCERN THIS EVENT
WILL BE TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THINGS... ESPECIALLY WITH THE FAST
MOVEMENT AND NOT IDEAL LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION (TEMPS TOO
WARM). WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS (AROUND
0.30") OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER
THE NORTH. HOWEVER HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (BETWEEN 15-20 TO 1)
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WI. SO IN THE END...MOST SPOTS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO RECEIVE 3-4 INCHES...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING IN A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW. THEREFORE...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CONSIDERED DELAYING THE START TIME
SLIGHTLY AS BULK OF SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO MOST OF NORTH-
CENTRAL UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THINK ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THE 09Z START
TIME. ALSO CONSIDERED STARTING THE ENTIRE FOX VALLEY WITH THE REST
OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY (09Z)...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ONSET OF MAIN BATCH OF SNOW SO THE 12Z START TIME SHOULD
WORK OUT.

[Yerf]

man this storm is effecting a lot of the US 

 

 

 

[Geos]

That's over 2000 miles from Idaho to southern New England! I think LOT has my immediate area down for 2-3". Nothing out of the ordinary for this winter. It will push the average snowfall closer to the normal though.

 

Except for the Super Bowl storm, this just isn't the year for big storms in the Midwest.

[Maxim]

Can't see my location getting 3", even 2" is a pretty bullish call.

[Maxim]

Well not sure what to think now after seeing this. Still thinking it's overdone though.

 

[Tom]

RPM Model is showing more snow accumulating on the front-end than earlier runs for N IL...local spots picking up 2" or so won't be that difficult.  I've seen these WAA events bring some quick "thump snow".

[CentralNebWeather]

Nebraska missed again. The beat continues. Bring on severe weather season. I am defeated by this largely snowless winter.

[Tom]

00z RGEM...the most aggressive with snow accumulation in N IL...ORD will probably crack 45" for the season with this system.  Looks like it will largely be a snow maker rather than ice/rain which is better for travel conditions.  I'll take snow over ice any day.

[Geos]

Right now the radar does not look very impressive. Still have 1-2" or so forecasted. 

[Seahawkfan]

Freezing rain start to finish here Amazing how little freezing rain can cause a nightmare for driving.

[Snowshoe]

Can't catch a break. At this point I'll be happy with an inch.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI

502 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 446 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015 AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING NOT SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ADVISORY SO FAR. BRUNT OF THE WAA PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER INCREASING BAND OF SNOW WAS OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO MINNESOTA. THE DRY REGION BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF FORCING IS LARGE AND MAY LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS OVER. PROGS STILL SUGGEST WAA CLIPS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT THE WINDOW OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SHRINKING. THE UPPER JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE THIS MORNING AND MAY BE A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT THE MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED. WILL CONSIDER LOWERING SNOW AMOUNTS WITH AN UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING.

[FarmerRick]

Freezing rain start to finish here Amazing how little freezing rain can cause a nightmare for driving.

 

 

Yeah, we had 2 Sheriff's cruisers smashed this morning... so far.  Nobody hurt though, so that's good. 

[Hawkeye]

At the last minute some models added a band of heavier precip over ec/se Iowa, and they were right, but my 0.32" of precip only added up to 0.8 inches of snow/sleet.  The rest was freezing rain.

[Geos]

Roads are a nightmare here too, but at least the freezing rain was kept to a minimum. About 2.8" fell at home, but here in Racine about 4-5" fell.

[NEJeremy]

ended up with just a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain from this storm, but of course it happened right before/during morning rush hour. The city was pretty prepared though and treated the roads last night. You could see the layer of brine on the roads driving home last night. Of course it was mainly the main roads that were treated so the side roads were still rough. It's amazing how little ice can cause so many problems. It was basically impossible to walk on our slightly sloped driveway without nearly falling on my rear.

 

Just saw a report of a fatal accident this morning on a road on the edge of town where they are pretty sure ice was the cause.

 

Man would have loved to see the 6+" snowfall the models were showing at one point for most of us here. What a disappointment

[james1976]

A week ago models showed a lot of 12" totals with these 2 systems. I ended up with no snow at all. Lol. I dont think anyone got much for significant totals.

[Tom]

A week ago models showed a lot of 12" totals with these 2 systems. I ended up with no snow at all. Lol. I dont think anyone got much for significant totals.

S WI/MN got 3-5" and I think MI did better than N WI was actually supposed to get.  Can't believe those up north can't buy a decent snow so far this season.

[Niko]

What a beautiful snowfall. I received 4.1 inches of fresh snow. Awesome scenery outside. It has changed over to sleet and freezing rain now, but the mix will end by pm hours. Looks like I will use my snowblower later on today.

[Niko]

S WI/MN got 3-5" and I think MI did better than N WI was actually supposed to get.  Can't believe those up north can't buy a decent snow so far this season.

I did fairly good.

[WBadgersW]

Roads are a nightmare here too, but at least the freezing rain was kept to a minimum. About 2.8" fell at home, but here in Racine about 4-5" fell.

I like how the more South you were, the less snow you were suppose to get. That did not happen.

[Money]

Not even 1/2 inch here

 

This winter sucks

[Snowshoe]

Ditto Money! This winter sucked!!!!

[CentralNebWeather]

Always wondered what it would be like to live in Wisconsin or Minnesota for a winter.  Assumed it was unlimited snows in most winters, but from the sounds of many on here that is not the case this winter.