March 2015 PNW Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Do you have a greenhouse? I hear those are frost-resistant.

 

 

Can control everything that has come out of the ground and is blooming already.

[BLI snowman]

Still, over 2 degrees colder than any month since 1953 is pretty astounding.

 

SEA's records only go back a few years further than that, yet people still make a big deal about records at that silly station.

 

SEA goes back to 1944 and just had their warmest winter on record. Score!

[Deweydog]

Baseball in March is generally stupid here.

 

The rest of the northern US starts in late April or early May and runs into July.

 

Growing up... I always associated baseball with warm weather. My boys associate baseball with being cold and wet.

 

For some reason they want to pretend this is SoCal or Arizona up here. Even the major leagues knows better than to be anywhere but AZ or FL in March.

Growing up at the coast, well, you can draw your own conclusion there...

 

Both my kids don't really give a crap about the coldy/drippy. It's mainly an old man/lady issue.

 

We used to have more indoor facilities available here in the couve but the great recession did a number on several of them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

College baseball starts their season in February. In Oklahoma it can alternate between 80 one day and highs in the 20s the next this time of year. My worst baseball memory was pitching in a game in March 2008 where the game time temperature was 27 degrees with flurries and about a 20mph north wind. March 2002 was pretty awful too, half an inch of grapuel before a game and then we end up pulling the tarp and paying during intermittent snow showers. Both my college and hs coaches were maniacs about getting games in. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Growing up at the coast, well, you can draw your own conclusion there...

 

Both my kids don't really give a crap about the coldy/drippy. It's mainly an old man/lady issue.

 

We used to have more indoor facilities available here in the couve but the great recession did a number on several of them.

 

Generally growing up and through high school the games on the days with the heavy convective precip tended to get rained out. The games we played in the rain were usually during light warm frontal rains. This was usually in April and May and was typically warm and muggy. Not to unpleasant, it just severely limited the pitch selection with the damp ball. 

[Phil]

Their records only go back to 1953 at the airport there. Pre 1953 surely killed it.

Unlikely, at least as far as February is concerned. Even the great Februaries of the 1800s were blown away in cities like Cleveland, Flint, etc. Was the coldest February on record around here, too. If this pattern had occurred in January, we'd likely be talking about the coldest month in Eastern US history.

 

We've seen major changes in the global Ferrel Cells & mobile polar high production since 2009 as the relationship between the SAO/QBO & low-freq tropical forcings has shifted in response to weakened solar forcing on the Hadley/Walker relationships. As solar forcing continues to decline over the next several decades, these Arctic blasts will continue to grow more severe, and the globe will cool overall, with the greatest cooling occurring over the Arctic domain & NH above 40N. The exception will be the Antarctic, which will likely warm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chicago tied their coldest February on record from 1875. They also had their single greatest daily February snowfall on record. Pretty amazing month for them. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unlikely, at least as far as February is concerned. Even the great Februaries of the 1800s were blown away in cities like Cleveland, Flint, etc. Was the coldest February on record around here, too.

 

We've seen major changes in the global Ferrel Cells & mobile polar high production since 2009 as the relationship between the SAO/QBO & low-freq tropical forcings has shifted in response to weakened solar forcing on the Hadley/Walker relationships. As solar forcing continues to decline over the next several decades, these Arctic blasts will continue to grow more severe, and the globe will cool overall, with the greatest cooling occurring over the Arctic domain & NH above 40N. The exception will be the Antarctic, which will likely warm.

 

Props Phil. You really nailed this. You said the east was going to get killed late January on and you were right. You called our window and that it was over if we missed it and you were right on that too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rockford, IL now has two of their top ten coldest months in the past 13 months (January 2014 #9, February 2015 #10). Also worth noting that places in SW Oregon had their coldest December or a top 3 coldest December on record in 2013. So despite our prolonged torch it hasn't all been east based. 

[TT-SEA]

Props Phil. You really nailed this. You said the east was going to get killed late January on and you were right. You called our window and that it was over if we missed it and you were right on that too. 

 

 

I agree with all of this... overall he did a great job with this winter.

[Phil]

Thanks guys, much appreciated.

 

I know I've been regurgitating this for awhile now. Look at the 7-sigma VP/streamfunction relationship over the last 5 years..major changes in the both the tropical gradients and poleward transport.

 

Classic multi-decadal all response to reduced solar forcing, and a precursor to a circulation that will lead to global cooling, just as it did during the brief mid-20th century cooling..only this response looks 10x as anomalous in the sigmas of interest..even more impressive than I was expecting.

 

Enjoy the warmth over the next few years, because things are gonna change very fast towards the end of the decade.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I agree with all of this... overall he did a great job with this winter.

 

He did. And honestly though my "worst fears" came true for a "worst case scenario" winter. It really wasn't all that bad. In fact all this nice weather has been pretty enjoyable. Either I'm turning into you or I'm just getting older and realizing there are a lot more important things in life than 5 inches of 33 degree rain. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thanks guys, much appreciated.

 

I know I've been regurgitating this for awhile now. Look at the 7-sigma VP/streamfunction relationship over the last 5 years..major changes in the both the tropical gradients and poleward transport.

 

Classic multi-decaf all response to reduced solar forcing, and a precursor to a circulation that will lead to global cooling, just as it did during the brief mid-20th century cooling..only this response looks 10x as anomalous..even more impressive than I was expecting.

 

Enjoy the warmth over the next few years, because things are gonna change very fast towards the end of the decade.

 

Al Gore will die a bitter man*. 

 

 

*He will die an even more bitter man than he was after he blew the 2000 election. You know the election we all thought he had won after the networks projected him the winner in Florida even though at the time he trailed by tens of thousands in the actual vote count. Then when the final tally was about 538 votes he decided to drag the country through a month and a half of limbo even though everyone knew a partisan SCOTUS would rule against him. 

[BLI snowman]

Unlikely, at least as far as February is concerned. Even the great Februaries of the 1800s were blown away in cities like Cleveland, Flint, etc. Was the coldest February on record around here, too. If this pattern had occurred in January, we'd likely be talking about the coldest month in Eastern US history.

 

We've seen major changes in the global Ferrel Cells & mobile polar high production since 2009 as the relationship between the SAO/QBO & low-freq tropical forcings has shifted in response to weakened solar forcing on the Hadley/Walker relationships. As solar forcing continues to decline over the next several decades, these Arctic blasts will continue to grow more severe, and the globe will cool overall, with the greatest cooling occurring over the Arctic domain & NH above 40N. The exception will be the Antarctic, which will likely warm.

 

Februaries 1934 and 1885 seemed to be very comparable, but that might be it for the NE back to 1870.

[TT-SEA]

Thanks guys, much appreciated.

 

I know I've been regurgitating this for awhile now. Look at the 7-sigma VP/streamfunction relationship over the last 5 years..major changes in the both the tropical gradients and poleward transport.

 

Classic multi-decadal all response to reduced solar forcing, and a precursor to a circulation that will lead to global cooling, just as it did during the brief mid-20th century cooling..only this response looks 10x as anomalous in the sigmas of interest..even more impressive than I was expecting.

 

Enjoy the warmth over the next few years, because things are gonna change very fast towards the end of the decade.

 

 

We still have a few more years of this?    Nice.

 

At least for spring, summer, and fall.

 

Winter could stand to be a little colder and snowier.   

[Phil]

Februaries 1934 and 1885 seemed to be very comparable, but that might be it for the NE back to 1870.

Agreed, but I suspect this one might have trumped both of those in portions of the Ohio Valley and the central NE as well. Lots of all-time records set, even in stations influenced by UHI. This was a Dalton-minimum throwback.

 

There are stories of much colder winters during the early 1700s, which I don't doubt. That said, there are no reliable records from that era.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I find the 1934 comparisons fascinating. That was another all-time warm winter in the PNW. February 2015 was definitely wetter in the PNW, but almost all of that was at the beginning of the month. Overall they were very similar. The winter of 1932-33 had similarities to last winter too. 

[Phil]

We still have a few more years of this? Nice.

 

At least for spring, summer, and fall.

 

Winter could stand to be a little colder and snowier.

Should stay in a general +PNA/+PDO through 2015. I think we slowly transition out of it as we progress through 2016.

 

I suspect we're probably back in a La Niña/-PDO by winter 2016-17.

[westiztehbest]

Thanks guys, much appreciated.

 

I know I've been regurgitating this for awhile now. Look at the 7-sigma VP/streamfunction relationship over the last 5 years..major changes in the both the tropical gradients and poleward transport.

 

Classic multi-decadal all response to reduced solar forcing, and a precursor to a circulation that will lead to global cooling, just as it did during the brief mid-20th century cooling..only this response looks 10x as anomalous in the sigmas of interest..even more impressive than I was expecting.

 

Enjoy the warmth over the next few years, because things are gonna change very fast towards the end of the decade.

 

 

As much of a bummer this winter was minus a few Arctic blasts in November/December, it's just a swing in the pendulum.  Last solar minimum, 2008-2009, my area got buried by an insane amount of snow (greatest on record) and winter lasted well through the beginning of April.  Got snow in June, even.  It coinscideded with a dip in global temperatures and La Nina, of course.  

 

Half a solar cycle later, snow has been very sparse this year.  A 180* flip from 2008, really.  But like you say...later this decade things will swing back the other direction.  The silver lining in less snowfall and milder temperatures is not having to deal with the brute of winter.  Snow activities aren't as favorable, but you do other activities in winter instead.

 

I'd have to say that the prospect of increased global cooling is exciting to think about.  If it makes for more interesting weather, I'm all for it.

[richard mann]

January will be really cold out east. 
 
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14101000z nhem 500.gif

.... Make the call.
 

December 25th - January 30th, +/- 15 days ... This is when we'll see the true -AO regime take over, and legitimate Arctic air enter the country. This is also the best chance for the PNW to take part in an Arctic blast...

[Phil]

As much of a bummer this winter was minus a few Arctic blasts in November/December, it's just a swing in the pendulum. Last solar minimum, 2008-2009, my area got buried by an insane amount of snow (greatest on record) and winter lasted well through the beginning of April. Got snow in June, even. It coinscideded with a dip in global temperatures and La Nina, of course.

 

Half a solar cycle later, snow has been very sparse this year. A 180* flip from 2008, really. But like you say...later this decade things will swing back the other direction. The silver lining in less snowfall and milder temperatures is not having to deal with the brute of winter. Snow activities aren't as favorable, but you do other activities in winter instead.

 

I'd have to say that the prospect of increased global cooling is exciting to think about. If it makes for more interesting weather, I'm all for it.

I never thought my heating bill could get higher than it did last winter..lol @ my naïvety.

 

There's definitely a more immediate relationship between the NAM/PNA and the 11yr solar cycle..the PDO follows along as well, lagging by 2-4 years.

 

The first and most notable longer term response would be a tightening/southward migration of the Ferrel Cells and an increase in tropical convection.

[BLI snowman]

I find the 1934 comparisons fascinating. That was another all-time warm winter in the PNW. February 2015 was definitely wetter in the PNW, but almost all of that was at the beginning of the month. Overall they were very similar. The winter of 1932-33 had similarities to last winter too. 

 

December 1933 was pretty dramatically different. All time record rains in the PNW with a sharp arctic boundary over BC for most of the month and all time record cold in AK. One of the strongest +EPO stretches on record.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Thanks guys, much appreciated.

 

I know I've been regurgitating this for awhile now. Look at the 7-sigma VP/streamfunction relationship over the last 5 years..major changes in the both the tropical gradients and poleward transport.

 

Classic multi-decadal all response to reduced solar forcing, and a precursor to a circulation that will lead to global cooling, just as it did during the brief mid-20th century cooling..only this response looks 10x as anomalous in the sigmas of interest..even more impressive than I was expecting.

 

Enjoy the warmth over the next few years, because things are gonna change very fast towards the end of the decade.

Do you think CA is going to continue to be in a horrible drought in the coming years, or will we turn wetter sooner or later based on the overall big picture? The Sierra snowpack is at a paltry 16% of normal to date based on the most recent survey, and I hope these numbers aren't some sort of a "new normal" for CA. It feels to me like the climate shifted in January 2013, and I hope this doesn't continue indefinitely and that we see a return to a more normal winter pattern soon!

 

I did see that you mentioned in a post above that the Ferrel Cells should start to shift southward in the coming years, and that sounds promising to me, because that sounds as if the storm track will eventually shift more south.

[richard mann]

Enjoy the warmth over the next few years ... because things are gonna change very fast towards the end of the decade.

You too.   .. And hopefully, with the impending .. you know, you'll be keeping us all updated during the interim.  

 

(.. I read it on the internet.)

 

http://www.proxigee.com/russian_fashion.jpg

[Jesse]

Al Gore will die a bitter man*.

 

 

*He will die an even more bitter man than he was after he blew the 2000 election. You know the election we all thought he had won after the networks projected him the winner in Florida even though at the time he trailed by tens of thousands in the actual vote count. Then when the final tally was about 538 votes he decided to drag the country through a month and a half of limbo even though everyone knew a partisan SCOTUS would rule against him.

Weird post.

[Jesse]

Should stay in a general +PNA/+PDO through 2015. I think we slowly transition out of it as we progress through 2016.

 

I suspect we're probably back in a La Niña/-PDO by winter 2016-17.

Are you thinking 2015 will be as ridiculously torchy for the west as 2014 was overall?

 

Granted we're already off to a pretty good start.

[richard mann]

I think it depends on how you look at it. For instance, let's say someone hands you a set of dice and they tell you someone else has just rolled them 1,000 times but you have no idea of the results. Most people would be just fine with that and the next 1,000 rolls would be viewed upon and "predicted" just as with any others. Apply that to weather now and take two people with a fairly useful knowledge of meteorology, one with knowledge of the past 100 years of weather for a specific region and one with absolutely no knowledge of the past. Who would be best to determine the loose likelihood of some fashion of anomaly over, let's say, the next 3 years?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weird post.

2000 was a long time ago. Some people may not remember. The footnote was to provide context.

[Phil]

Are you thinking 2015 will be as ridiculously torchy for the west as 2014 was overall?

 

Granted we're already off to a pretty good start.

From a seasonal standpoint, I think it'll probably run warm, yes. However, that doesn't preclude troughing on a sub-seasonal scale. There may very well be more GOA troughing this go around..we'll see.

 

Low-frequency forcings scream +ENSO still. The failure of the shake-up I forecasted this winter will tells me we have another year of low-freq +ENSO forcing to go.

 

Still sticking with the 2016 transition, though.

[Deweydog]

2000 was a long time ago. Some people may not remember. The footnote was to provide context.

 

I think the weird part was the fact you told the story totally wrong.  Plus I'm pretty sure Al Gore only invented the internet, not global warming.  

[Deweydog]

26 here this morning... in March... in 2015.  Are you ******* kidding me???

[Deweydog]

 

I think it depends on how you look at it. For instance, let's say someone hands you a set of dice and they tell you someone else has just rolled them 1,000 times but you have no idea of the results. Most people would be just fine with that and the next 1,000 rolls would be viewed upon and "predicted" just as with any others. Apply that to weather now and take two people with a fairly useful knowledge of meteorology, one with knowledge of the past 100 years of weather for a specific region and one with absolutely no knowledge of the past. Who would be best to determine the loose likelihood of some fashion of anomaly over, let's say, the next 3 years?

 

[TT-SEA]

26 here this morning... in March... in 2015.  Are you ******* kidding me???

 

Ridiculous.   

[Jesse]

29 out here this morning.

 

I have actually been a huge fan of the weather so far this month. Nice to see the models backing off on the warmth later this week too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the weird part was the fact you told the story totally wrong.  Plus I'm pretty sure Al Gore only invented the internet, not global warming.  

 

Maybe I did. I was 16 years old. It was almost 15 years ago. Thats what I remember. When they projected Gore in Florida it was based on exit poll data, he was behind by like 50K votes because Dade County hadn't come in yet. Then it narrowed to around 500 votes by the time the first round of counting was done. Then there was a month and a half of partisan arguing about dimpled and pregnant chads.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

29 out here this morning.

 

I have actually been a huge fan of the weather so far this month. Nice to see the models backing off on the warmth later this week too.

 

Eugene hit 26 for the 3rd time this month already. Take that January!

[Deweydog]

Maybe I did. I was 16 years old. It was almost 15 years ago. Thats what I remember. When they projected Gore in Florida it was based on exit poll data, he was behind by like 50K votes because Dade County hadn't come in yet. Then it narrowed to around 500 votes by the time the first round of counting was done. Then there was a month and a half of partisan arguing about dimpled and pregnant chads.

Bush was declared the winner by the media too early, starting the whole ball of wax. That whole thing was a bi-partisan (and not in a good way) cluster **** which after the fact in objective analysis shows Gore most likely was the victor.

[Deweydog]

29 out here this morning.

 

I have actually been a huge fan of the weather so far this month. Nice to see the models backing off on the warmth later this week too.

Change.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bush was declared the winner by the media too early, starting the whole ball of wax. That whole thing was a bi-partisan (and not in a good way) cluster **** which after the fact in objective analysis shows Gore most likely was the victor.

 

In following years Bush would be discovered to be woefully incompetent and Gore to be a raging narcissist. 

[Deweydog]

In following years Bush would be discovered to be woefully incompetent and Gore to be a raging narcissist.

Funny how works sometimes, eh?