March 2015 PNW Discussion

[Jesse]

Change.

Just not the kind you expected!

[Deweydog]

Just not the kind you expected!

More like better than I expected.

[Jesse]

Maybe I did. I was 16 years old. It was almost 15 years ago. Thats what I remember. When they projected Gore in Florida it was based on exit poll data, he was behind by like 50K votes because Dade County hadn't come in yet. Then it narrowed to around 500 votes by the time the first round of counting was done. Then there was a month and a half of partisan arguing about dimpled and pregnant chads.

Couldn't you have at least looked up "2000 Presidential Election" on Wikipedia beforehand?Then at least it would have been an accurate off topic ramble.

 

Outside of the Fox News bubble, I don't think there is much doubt that Gore should have won that one. Narcissist or not it was kind of a travesty.

[Deweydog]

Couldn't you have at least looked up "2000 Presidential Election" on Wikipedia beforehand?Then at least it would have been an accurate off topic ramble.

 

Outside of the Fox News bubble, I don't think there is much doubt that Gore should have won that one. Narcissist or not it was kind of a travesty.

I think calling it a travesty is a little bleeding heart. It exposed our system as being more flawed than what was previously believed. Some of those issues have been shored up but the Constitutional issues for the most part remain. Point is, it can swing both ways. Whoever came out on the short end on that one was going to have an excellent argument in dissent.

[ShawniganLake]

A nice little cold shot developing on the GFS for a week from today.  850's down to -8C Vancouver, -7C Bellingham, -6C Seattle. 

[Deweydog]

Can we keep the politics out of this thread please.

Got pretty chilly 'round these parts shortly after the election as things heated up.

[TT-SEA]

A nice little cold shot developing on the GFS for a week from today.  850's down to -8C Vancouver, -7C Bellingham, -6C Seattle. 

 

 

Not on the 12Z Canadian or the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Weren't we supposed to be down around -12C right about now according to the models last week?   850mb at 0C this morning.   

 

So maybe add 12C to those numbers?   

[IbrChris]

In following years Bush would be discovered to be woefully incompetent and Gore to be a raging narcissist. 

So you're saying Gore = Obama just 8 years earlier.

[ShawniganLake]

Not on the 12Z Canadian or the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Weren't we supposed to be down around -12C right about now according to the models last week?   850mb at 0C this morning.   

 

So maybe add 12C to those numbers?   

Yea, not much happening on the other models yet. 

 

Clearly adding 12C to what the models are showing, from now until forever, is the way to go. 

[ShawniganLake]

Cypress and Grouse mountains have been able to open some terrain, thanks to their snow making.

 

Boyne Resorts

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TM denotes a trademark of CNL Personal Property TRS ULC. used under licence by Cypress Bowl Recreational Limited Partnership

 

 

 

 

 

http://cypressmountain.com/sites/default/files/11021364_10155266515415576_2560858174558319684_o.jpg

 

 

Snowmaking March 3, 2015
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[TT-SEA]

Yea, not much happening on the other models yet.

 

Clearly adding 12C to what the models are showing, from now until forever, is the way to go.

Might work out this time.

[Jesse]

I think calling it a travesty is a little bleeding heart. It exposed our system as being more flawed than what was previously believed. Some of those issues have been shored up but the Constitutional issues for the most part remain. Point is, it can swing both ways. Whoever came out on the short end on that one was going to have an excellent argument in dissent.

Stop nitpicking over word choice. It sounds like we actually agree for the most part.

 

Electoral college is a little outdated.

[Jesse]

More like better than I expected.

Any pattern that delivers less snow in the mountains is truly a blessing right now.

[Deweydog]

Stop nitpicking over word choice. It sounds like we actually agree for the most part.

Well don't use such ridiculous words.

[Deweydog]

Any pattern that delivers less snow in the mountains is truly a blessing right now.

Could be raining and 58 degrees right now.

[Deweydog]

Coldest first four March lows at PDX since 2002.

 

#upcominganalog

[Jesse]

Could be raining and 58 degrees right now.

More like 38 and raining if those über changey runs from a few weeks back had panned out!!

[Deweydog]

More like 38 and raining if those über changey runs from a few weeks back had panned out!!

I'm just saying your snowless-mountain pity party could be playing out in a far less pleasant manner.

[Phil]

Do you think CA is going to continue to be in a horrible drought in the coming years, or will we turn wetter sooner or later based on the overall big picture? The Sierra snowpack is at a paltry 16% of normal to date based on the most recent survey, and I hope these numbers aren't some sort of a "new normal" for CA. It feels to me like the climate shifted in January 2013, and I hope this doesn't continue indefinitely and that we see a return to a more normal winter pattern soon!

 

I did see that you mentioned in a post above that the Ferrel Cells should start to shift southward in the coming years, and that sounds promising to me, because that sounds as if the storm track will eventually shift more south.

The drought should improve for the reasons you mentioned, but the equatorialward progression of the cells will be a gradual and unstable process (influenced by ENSO, solar, QBO, etc).

 

Definitely not a "new normal", though. There's nothing "normal" about what you're experiencing.

[bainbridgekid]

Pretty chilly lows this morning.

 

BLI: 24

SEA: 31

TCM: 22

OLM: 21

PDX: 30

SLE: 27

EUG: 26

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Couldn't you have at least looked up "2000 Presidential Election" on Wikipedia beforehand?Then at least it would have been an accurate off topic ramble.

 

Outside of the Fox News bubble, I don't think there is much doubt that Gore should have won that one. Narcissist or not it was kind of a travesty.

 

Give me a break. It was a joke to begin with. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I edited my little outburst there....Seriously my secretary is driving me up a wall today. She probably voted for Bush in 2000! 

 

In other news a lot of frosty nights this month. Probably not going to be a record warm March! Progress. Hope and change!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is wet and cold at 240 hours... it will happen!

[BLI snowman]

12Z ECMWF is wet and cold at 240 hours... it will happen!

 

Just add 21c to the 850mb temps and subtract 8.00" of QPF from that frame and you got our weather.

 

#newnormal

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Deweydog]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Lines!

[Jesse]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Trending milder.

[TT-SEA]

About time to start waiting an extra hour for the models to come out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Trending milder.

 

Always.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

About time to start waiting an extra hour for the models to come out.

 

Ugh the suspense just kills me

[Jesse]

Always.

 

Gonna be a quiet year.

[Deweydog]

Gonna be a quiet year.

Especially September.

[Jesse]

Especially September.

Sunny with highs in the low-mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s is quiet. I'd kill for a September like that.

[Deweydog]

Sunny with highs in the low-mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s is quiet. I'd kill for a September like that.

Sorry... no can do.

[Jesse]

Sorry... no can do.

Coolish, dry late Summers/early Falls are SO mid-20th Century!

[Deweydog]

Coolish, dry late Summers/early Falls are SO mid-20th Century!

The Bush administration at least.

[richard mann]

From a seasonal standpoint, I think it'll probably run warm, yes. However, that doesn't preclude troughing on a sub-seasonal scale. There may very well be more GOA troughing ................. this go around..we'll see.

 

Low-frequency forcings scream +ENSO still. The failure of the shake-up I forecasted this winter .. tells me we have another year of low-freq +ENSO forcing to go.

 

Still sticking with the 2016 transition, though.

 

... [merry-go-]round….. / (Fluff.) notwithstanding, …. 

 

".. Albeit, the with the Low-frequency "forcings" still "screaming"  "+ENSO", …. 

 

.. My failure where looking at the "shake-up" that I had forecast this winter ….. where looking at …. you know, tells me … that we have another year of "low-freq +ENSO forcings" ….. to go.  Still sticking with the, you know, "2016 transition", …. though."

 

— Forgetting the context, that I may (or may not.) having connected this "all", "up to", …

 

.. I'm reasonably sure, with my past efforts at the idea, that it would be fairly pointless for me to ask you to "work" to elucidation any of your "thinking" here above any further. This although, if fact I still .. do feel, that with your persistence illustrated here more where regarding your choice of just how (more) (even more generally) you've elected to attempt to convey your thinking, that it might be, appropriate, to "ask" …. that you perhaps consider, the idea of doing so, in an at least somewhat at less "colorful" way. 

 

(This with also perhaps a bit more emphasis on your working to appear a bit less "self-aggrandizing".)

[richard mann]

Definitely not a "new normal", though. There's nothing "normal" about what you're experiencing.

 

— Sorry. I have to ask here. What have you intended to suggest, with this dichotomy (?) in fact.

 

... Perhaps one too many "negatives", left in with its composition. (?) .. "a .. new normal", .. with it's "not, being". (?)

[Deweydog]

18z for president!

[TT-SEA]

18z for president!

 

 

You be all about that dry weather and ridging!