March 2015 PNW Discussion

[Deweydog]

Baseball might become a little more challenging.

 

Or softball as Jesse calls it... maybe cricket?

It's naked badminton now. Might be some shrinkage issues upcoming.

[Jesse]

The facade of the last year or so is quickly crumbling.

 

Cool, wet weather erodes.

[Deweydog]

The facade of the last year or so is quickly crumbling.

 

Cool, wet weather erodes.

All of the sudden recycling your toilet paper doesn't seem so important now.

[TT-SEA]

Anyone have opinions of Neskowin? Looking at rentals there.

[Deweydog]

Anyone have opinions of Neskowin? Looking at rentals there.

It's nice and coastal. Marine pushes might be a little overwhelming for the little ones, though.

[Jesse]

All of the sudden recycling your toilet paper doesn't seem so important now.

I think you missed the point of that post.

[Deweydog]

I think you missed the point of that post.

Maybe so.

[TT-SEA]

It's nice and coastal. Marine pushes might be a little overwhelming for the little ones, though.

 

My boys are bigger now... they can handle it!   We will hold on tight to my daughter.  

 

Not thinking this is a marine push pattern anyways.   In fact it might even be more favorable on the coast rather than inland.

 

We are looking at a couple weeks from now.

[Deweydog]

My boys are bigger now... they can handle it! We will hold on tight to my daughter.

 

Not thinking this is a marine push pattern anyways. In fact it might even be more favorable on the coast rather than inland.

 

We are looking at a couple weeks from now.

That can often be the case during ULL season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty good agreement in the mid-range.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[ShawniganLake]

Great Post.  I like seeing examples of the model differences throughout the year not just when there is the possibility of snow.  Usually if there is a chance of an arctic outbreak or snow then there is a debate about the better models and what model picks up on certain details than others etc.  There is also the rest of the year to see the differences in the models and which models pick up on which things best, not just during a few days/weeks out of the year.  I like seeing these posts.  Thanks.

ECMWF remains superior at the 500mb level.

 

Looking at the scores for the GFS, it would appear as though the upgrade has brought it closer inline with the EURO.  Look at the score for the last 365 days compared to the last 30, much closer. 

[TT-SEA]

Here is the latest verification stats, GFS vs Euro.  ECMWF remains superior at the 500mb level.

 

Looking at the scores for the GFS, it would appear as though the upgrade has brought it closer inline with the EURO.  Look at the score for the last 365 days compared to the last 30, much closer. 

http://models.weatherbell.com/verf/ecmwf_gfs_nh_f120.png

 

Image does not show up for me... but what you wrote makes sense.

 

The most noticeable thing I have seen is that the GFS does not flop around like it did before the upgrade.

[ShawniganLake]

Image does not show up for me... but what you wrote makes sense.

 

The most noticeable thing I have seen is that the GFS does not flop around like it did before the upgrade.

I'll repost it differently.  How does this look.

 

[TT-SEA]

That worked.

 

00Z GFS looks cold in 10 days.

[richard mann]

Image does not show up for me...

So naturally you repost, it. .. so that "two" larger framed "?s" then show up more "clearly".

(The point being here, that you could [also], edit it out of your post.)

[ShawniganLake]

Now how about subtracting the original. ?

 

 

So naturally you repost, it. .. so that "two" larger framed "?s" then show up more "clearly".

(The point being here, that you could [also], edit it out of your post.)

Whatever, I was being lazy.  I took one down for you. 

[Jesse]

Nice to see a relatively long-lasting troughy period on the way. 

[HighlandExperience]

Nice to see a relatively long-lasting troughy period on the way. 

 

This upcoming week will help Timberline. Definitely will help Crystal, and Stevens remain open. 

 

Went to Crystal Friday. Bottom 1/3 of the mountain is pretty bare. 

[richard mann]

-
With my general practice of steering clear of model projections, with seeing that boarder main cold has in fact been moving and spreading daily more southward since the 26th more per my own more general, and with also noting what people have been saying here above where considering the potential more general where looking ahead, .. I'm hoping that some of the main moisture sitting out over the Eastern Pacific at this point will get pushed into action here further south, by the denser cold to its west, .. per my own projection set to pick up its pace east over the next few days. @

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/epac/images/mosaic20150329T000000.gif   329T030000.gif  329T060000.gif   329T090000.gif   329T120000.gif

Source:  the CIMSS's MIMIC-TPW site-page. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global2/main.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a gorgeous day! Kind of a pain I have to go into the office for a few hours this afternoon. Really doesn't get much better than this in March though. Beautiful sunshine streaming in my window as I sip on a hot cup of coffee!

[TT-SEA]

What a gorgeous day! Kind of a pain I have to go into the office for a few hours this afternoon. Really doesn't get much better than this in March though. Beautiful sunshine streaming in my window as I sip on a hot cup of coffee!

 

 

Work on a Sunday?    I would refuse unless it was raining.  

 

Rain is just north of my location and it is actually dry here.   Even see rays of sun through a broken mid-level deck.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Work on a Sunday?    I would refuse unless it was raining.  

 

Rain is just north of my location and it is actually dry here.   Even see rays of sun through a broken mid-level deck.   

 

Yeah kind of a bummer, but something pretty important I have to take care of. I'll be taking Friday off as comp though so it works out in the end. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS is very wet.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_348_precip_ptot.gif

[Deweydog]

Long range GFS is very wet.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_348_precip_ptot.gif

 

Well that IS spring break...

 

I'm liking the idea of a good fire season even more now.

[Jesse]

Well that IS spring break...

 

I'm liking the idea of a good fire season even more now.

Rage!!

[Deweydog]

Rage!!

 

I imagine so.

 

Someday you'll mellow out...

[Jesse]

I imagine so.

 

Someday you'll mellow out...

 

I know you are.....but what am I?

[Jesse]

Heading down to the Wooden Shoe Tulip Festival near Woodburn. Beautiful day for it.

 

Yesterday we hiked through Columbia Hills State Park, north of The Dalles. It's been a great weekend.

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

I know you are.....but what am I?

 

Worried about stuff.  

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF looking more like the trough will stay offshore. Looks warmer... still wet but not heavy rain wet.

 

Jesse's fears of backing off are coming to fruition maybe.

[ShawniganLake]

Well that IS spring break...

 

I'm liking the idea of a good fire season even more now.

Could be, I remember reading an article on last years fire season, more specifically the Carlton Complex, and it claimed the forests were primed last season by a wet spring. 

[Deweydog]

Could be, I remember reading an article on last years fire season, more specifically the Carlton Complex, and it claimed the forests were primed last season by a wet spring.

There seems to be a belief by some that a wet, and likely cool as a result, spring will thwart a potentially cataclysmic fire season, preventing dry fuels, etc. Fact is, the dryness of fuels isn't as crucial as their abundance. Things almost invariably dry to critical levels during every warm season east of the crest so it comes down to availability and short term weather phenomenon.

[Front Ranger]

ECMWF looking more like the trough will stay offshore. Looks warmer... still wet but not heavy rain wet.

 

Jesse's fears of backing off are coming to fruition maybe.

 

The 12z was wildly different than the 0z past day 7. Euro is still trying to figure out how the pattern will evolve past the initial trough this week.

[stuffradio]

You lucky guys down south. Nothing but pouring misery up here. I haven't checked the rain yet today, but I wouldn't be surprised if I'm at 9 inches of rain now for the month.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z was wildly different than the 0z past day 7. Euro is still trying to figure out how the pattern will evolve past the initial trough this week.

 

 

Yeah... next week is a total mess in the models.   No consistency yet at all.   Wild swings from flooding rain to weak ridging to a cold trough and all points in between.

 

Just noticing that this upcoming week looks less stormy than before so maybe things will end up being rather benign.  

[MossMan]

This turned out to be a much more pleasant of a weekend than I was thinking it was going to be! Friday was very nice/warm, was able to do all my mowing! Rain did not move in until about 9pm and it was all dry by Saturday morning. I was able to go out and cut down one of my dead Plum trees and get the wood all stacked up. Rained again a bit overnight but was completely dry and breezy/mild again today. Went for a long walk with my daughter and tinkered around in the yard a little more. No endless light rain like what was feared! Hopefully the models will back off on all the rain forecasted in the extended.

 

Oh and my wife and I are now actively looking at property around in the Carlton area. Will be a second home for the time being with an eventual move over in the next 10-15yrs. SNOW!!

[TT-SEA]

This turned out to be a much more pleasant of a weekend than I was thinking it was going to be! Friday was very nice/warm, was able to do all my mowing! Rain did not move in until about 9pm and it was all dry by Saturday morning. I was able to go out and cut down one of my dead Plum trees and get the wood all stacked up. Rained again a bit overnight but was completely dry and breezy/mild again today. Went for a long walk with my daughter and tinkered around in the yard a little more. No endless light rain like what was feared! Hopefully the models will back off on all the rain forecasted in the extended.

 

Oh and my wife and I are now actively looking at property around in the Carlton area. Will be a second home for the time being with an eventual move over in the next 10-15yrs. SNOW!!

 

 

You area fared well with SW flow and a rain shadow today.   Its been pretty miserable up towards Bellingham and along the WA coast.   Models backed off this annoying weak warm front in the last few runs.   

 

We had a decent amount of filtered sunshine earlier today... more cloudy now but never really rained other than a couple sprinkles.   We also got lots of yardwork done today.  

[MossMan]

Finally got to try out my new chainsaw! A perfect yard work weekend!

[richard mann]

You lucky guys down south. Nothing but pouring misery up here. I haven't checked the rain yet today, but I wouldn't be surprised if I'm at 9 inches of rain now for the month.

 

Perhaps one day, maybe even sooner than later, with in fact looking at extremes, events or where more apparent more regionally (as opposed to pooh, poohing the idea looked at more generally.), .. those interested in working to gage "Global Warming"—or "Cooling" of course—looked at as either whether or both, more part and part, Athropromorphic or otherwise, …

 

… will work more to evaluate the range of, along with distinction more between, extremes showing up more, i.e. where occurring more simultaneously, and where looking at one region compared to another, or even others.  

 

— Just adding to this, that I don't think that what you're seeing, as compared with however much further south is more "Climate Change" related. I'm thinking that it's more than likely just the result of basic and if greater timeframe pattern evolution more, myself.

[stuffradio]

 

Perhaps one day, maybe even sooner than later, with in fact looking at extremes, events or where more apparent more regionally (as opposed to pooh, poohing the idea looked at more generally.), .. those interested in working to gage "Global Warming"—or "Cooling" of course—looked as either whether or both, more part and part, Athropromorphic or otherwise, …

 

… will work more to evaluate the range of, along with distinction more between, extremes showing up more, i.e. where occurring more simultaneously, and where looking at one region compared to another, or even others.  

 

— Just adding to this, that I don't think that what you're seeing, as compared with however much further south is more "Climate Change" related. I'm thinking that it's more than likely just the result of basic and if greater timeframe pattern evolution more, myself.

 

? I didn't say anything about Global Warming, Cooling or Climate change in my post.