MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 I'm starting to get a good feeling about this weekend/Monday. I think it's going to trend in our favor. Seattle-north and the Gorge could see a decent snow event.How much snow is on the ground still at home? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 How much snow is on the ground still at home?Just piles left at this point. The surrounding mountains are covered with a nice fresh coat, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 These afternoon showers are probably producing nice grapuel accumulations at my home. lol Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 These afternoon showers are probably producing nice grapuel accumulations at my home. lolNothing like throwing an airy grapuel-ball. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 The Arctic (and Antarctic for that matter) sea ice hasn't been doing too well this winter, falling below the 2007 water mark at times. I am hoping that we see a nice rebound, so I dont have to put of with coworkers quoting Gore.Actually the Arctic ice pack is in great shape as we've seen very little in the way of Fram export since November. However this circulation has led to a lot of compaction in the Beaufort/Canadian/AK zone, and warm air/water influx from the NATL into the Arctic. So it's anyone's guess what will go down this summer. If we see another +DA circulation dominate like we saw in 2013, we'll be in very good shape for a big recovery over the next several years. The key is keeping the old, multi-year ice in the Arctic and away from the Fram Strait. That old, thick ice is what stabilizes the icepack, preventing storms from tearing it up. The old ice also has a higher albedo and reduced saltwater component, so it is significantly harder to melt. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Last I heard an El Niño was looking less likely.According to who, exactly? I've been pounding the Niño drum for next winter since last May. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Surprised there isn't more talk about the 18Z GFS. Tons of potential on this run. Gives me a high in the 20s and snow Monday, at face value. Upper level temps aren't super cold but the flow is offshore on this run (with a very cold airmass over NE Washington) from tomorrow night through well into next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Surprised there isn't more talk about the 18Z GFS. Tons of potential on this run. Gives me a high in the 20s and snow Monday, at face value. Upper level temps aren't super cold but the flow is offshore on this run (with a very cold airmass over NE Washington) from tomorrow night through well into next week.I saw it, looks potentially good at times. I am just bummed the 12z WRF removed all the snow it showed here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 42/37 out here today. Currently 39 with moderate rain. Took a drive up the Wind River Highway after work. There is still a ton of snow once you get above about 800'. Was going to try to get to Old Man Pass but the snow got too deep and it appears the plow hasn't been through in a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 42/37 out here today. Currently 39 with moderate rain. Took a drive up the Wind River Highway after work. There is still a ton of snow once you get above about 800'. Was going to try to get to Old Man Pass but the snow got too deep and it appears the plow hasn't been through in a while.I am wondering if there is a chance that some areas see at least some rain/snow mix initially with this next front approaching the coast. 40 here right now, doubt I would but maybe Shelton or Hood Canal areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 I am wondering if there is a chance that some areas see at least some rain/snow mix initially with this next front approaching the coast. 40 here right now, doubt I would but maybe Shelton or Hood Canal areas. I wouldn't rule it out. Currently 38 with rain here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 37 with rain here Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 I am wondering if there is a chance that some areas see at least some rain/snow mix initially with this next front approaching the coast. 40 here right now, doubt I would but maybe Shelton or Hood Canal areas.I am thinking yes. It is going to be close in some spots. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looking at a couple of observations I use on the east side of the Olympics it looks like the freezing level is 2000ft so it is possible for some snow in the hood canal area it looks like. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looks like Kevin Martin's website got taken out by Don Joseph. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 00Z NAM is chilly, -10c 850s to PDX by 12Z Saturday. How incredible would that be if the models trended toward a significant shot of arctic air this weekend, at the last minute? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looks like Kevin Martin's website got taken out by Don Joseph. Who is Don Joseph? Sounds like a mob boss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 00Z NAM is chilly, -10c 850s to PDX by 12Z Saturday. How incredible would that be if the models trended toward a significant shot of arctic air this weekend, at the last minute?It has happened before Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Who is Don Joseph? Sounds like a mob boss. You don't really want to know... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Actually the Arctic ice pack is in great shape as we've seen very little in the way of Fram export since November. However this circulation has led to a lot of compaction in the Beaufort/Canadian/AK zone, and warm air/water influx from the NATL into the Arctic. So it's anyone's guess what will go down this summer. If we see another +DA circulation dominate like we saw in 2013, we'll be in very good shape for a big recovery over the next several years. The key is keeping the old, multi-year ice in the Arctic and away from the Fram Strait. That old, thick ice is what stabilizes the icepack, preventing storms from tearing it up. The old ice also has a higher albedo and reduced saltwater component, so it is significantly harder to melt. Did you mean -DA? I thought the +DA circulation was the circulation pattern that pushed the ice toward and out the Fram Strait, which was the dominant circulation for much of the decade before last year. Or, am I getting mixed up between the two modes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 You don't really want to know...Yes we do. KM needs to meet a sad demise. So, who is Don Joseph? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Okay, but I warned you... https://www.facebook.com/don.josephiv?fref=ts&ref=br_tf Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 00z looks pretty snowy for most of Western Washington through hour 87. Edit: Arctic front with plenty of moisture stalls over the Central Sound Saturday night into Sunday. Looks a lot like a further North version of what Western Oregon just got a few weeks ago on this run. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20140220/00/gfs_namer_090_1000_500_thick_s.gif 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Okay, but I warned you... https://www.facebook.com/don.josephiv?fref=ts&ref=br_tfWow, I kinda like him. HEHEHE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 00z looks pretty snowy for most of Western Washington through hour 87. Edit: Arctic front with plenty of moisture stalls over the Central Sound Saturday night into Sunday Looks like a further North version of what Western Oregon just got a few weeks ago on this run.This does not sound like fun for here. My backyard is more important than those locations. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Really nice run for snow in the Puget Sound region. Surface pressure gradients have more of a northerly component on this run compared to previous ones (which were more easterly) which is great news for the East Puget Sound lowlands. Looks like 1000-850 thickness stays below 1300 into Sunday evening on this run. Actually colder than last nights run. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 This does not sound like fun for here. My backyard is more important than those locations. LOL Thems figtin' werds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Really nice run for snow in the Puget Sound region. Surface pressure gradients have more of a northerly component on this run compared to previous ones (which were more easterly) which is great news for the East Puget Sound lowlands. Looks like 1000-850 thickness stays below 1300 into Sunday evening on this run. Actually colder than last nights run. This is redemption! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 This is redemption! The fact that we find ourselves with a little bit better run tonight than last night is pretty encouraging. That is especially true given the fact every cold wave this winter has verified colder than the models showed 3 or more days out. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 The fact that we find ourselves with a little bit better run tonight than last night is pretty encouraging. That is especially true given the fact every cold wave this winter has verified colder than the models showed 3 or more days out.True,especially with the December cold wave which was shown what, 8+days out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 The WRF strongly hints at snow Friday morning for the East Puget Sound lowlands. Winds shift from SW to N with 925mb temps below freezing. Good chance there. By late Friday night 925mb temps drop to -5 over Seattle. Not too shabby. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 The WRF strongly hints at snow Friday morning for the East Puget Sound lowlands. Winds shift from SW to N with 925mb temps below freezing. Good chance there. By late Friday night 925mb temps drop to -5 over Seattle. Not too shabby.Do you want it to snow at your house? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Do you want it to snow at your house? I sure do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Do you want it to snow at your house? Did I see a post from you a few days ago about being in republic with your wife? Do you have a house up there and if so what elevation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Did I see a post from you a few days ago about being in republic with your wife? Do you have a house up there and if so what elevation?We have 23 acres 15 miles nw of republic. Elevation 3600ft. No house there yet. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 We have 23 acres 15 miles nw of republic. Elevation 3600ft. No house there yet.Wow, can I come out there and snowmobile sometime? With your permission of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 We have 23 acres 15 miles nw of republic. Elevation 3600ft. No house there yet. That is awesome! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 Wow, can I come out there and snowmobile sometime? With your permission of course.That area is only good for road riding from what I have seen so far. I mostly ride back country and from what I have seen this winter the snow is not deep enuff. But yeah I wouldn't mind. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 WRF out to hour 84 not as nice for central sound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 20, 2014 Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 That is awesome!I wanted to find a area in the mountains that I could access all year and have snow but not to much. What is nice about that part of the state is it's a very dry and cold climate in the winter. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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