Snowman5678 Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Zoomed in CDN snow accum model for you all, the other ones are a bit harder to read from distance. shows 6"+ for me but i bet a decent amount of that is resolution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 So right now we have the WRF GFS with the snowline pretty much all the way down to like Kelso. We have the ECMWF with the snow line around Mt. Vernon north. Then there is the GEM with the snow line about Everett north but does give areas east of lake washington some snow too. The snow line will probably be between Everett and Tacoma, I dont think it will be further south but who knows. Im hoping the 12z ECMWF pushes more towards a GEM GFS blend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I think NWCN mixed up there totals. Edit: Nevermind apparently they are going off the updated special weather statement. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IS THE PERIOD WHEN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND SNOWIS A GREATER POSSIBILITY. MORE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTOWESTERN WASHINGTON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIAPUSHES COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THENORTH. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF LOWLAND SNOW...AT LEAST IN THENORTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO HOW FARSOUTH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THE COLD AIR WILL SPREAD.THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT TERRAIN ABOVE 400 FT OR SO INTHE SEATTLE AREA AND MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION WILL RECEIVEUP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE NORTH COAST...THE LOWLANDS ALONG THESTRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...THE NORTH INTERIOR...THE HOOD CANALAREA...AND THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS NEAR THE CASCADES COULDGET MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...POSSIBLY 3 TO 8 INCHES.THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE FORECAST DETAILS ARESUBJECT TO CHANGE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECASTUPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES.$MCDONNALWEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I think NWCN mixed up there totals. LOL wish cast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Pretty sure the NWS will issue a winter storm watch from Olympia north. I think hood canal will do well. I would not be surprised to see 4 inches many places north of Tacoma. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Pretty sure the NWS will issue a winter storm watch from Olympia north. I think hood canal will do well. I would not be surprised to see 4 inches many places north of Tacoma.Nah, others on here have gone of their way to explain why. No watch will be needed south of the Canadian border. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 My forecast as of today: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Nah, others on here have gone of their way to explain why. No watch will be needed south of the Canadian border.I have never seen the wrf show this much solid snow cover so close to game time and fail 100%. Plus we have a cool air mass over us now and that will help. It was snowing at my house when I left for work today. I do live in a favored area but still shows the freezing level is low. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 My forecast as of today: http://i.imgur.com/k67rgPF.pngYou forgot the bulls-eye, North Olympic coast should get the most snow with northerly flow in any case unless the Low goes way north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 My forecast as of today: http://i.imgur.com/k67rgPF.pngNot a bad call. But you should of gave the hood canal area more. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I have never seen the wrf show this much solid snow cover so close to game time and fail 100%. Plus we have a cool air mass over us now and that will help. It was snowing at my house when I left for work today. I do live in a favored area but still shows the freezing level is low.I think this will end up being a significant regionwide event the time it is over. I won't see anything til Sunday night, and could be up to 4 inches. The GFS was the only one that showed some snow here 2 weeks ago as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 You forgot the bulls-eye, North Olympic coast should get the most snow with northerly flow in any case unless the Low goes way north. I just tried to focus on areas where most of our posters are located. We don't have many (if any) North Olympic coast posters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Hood Canal will get 8 plus inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Not a bad call. But you should of gave the hood canal area more. I didn't bother shading that area in because we have so few posters living there. Obviously that area is going to get crushed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 My forecast as of today: http://i.imgur.com/k67rgPF.png Nice forecast. Puts me in quite a good spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 You fool. Don't you know who I am?? I make more money than any mets in the entire region! People FLOCK to my website! Excuse me while I go masturbate to my photo and my weather forecasts.. Love your humor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I hope you guys up north score with this one. Some of you sound as excited as a virgin on the verge.Idk that's hard to match. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 My forecast as of today: http://i.imgur.com/k67rgPF.pngI like that 3-7 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Euro says no snow Everett south. Dang it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Are you the new K-Mart?K Mart has better artistic skills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hailstop Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 You guys think it's hard enough to forecast snow for this event...imagine if you had to take into consideration road temperatures. #ugh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I will admit the ECMWF and GFS are both very possible outcomes. It will be interesting to see what happens. Little question Whatcom County will score nicely. They totally deserve it. I am going all in for Whatcom County at this point. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 You guys think it's hard enough to forecast snow for this event...imagine if you had to take into consideration road temperatures. #ugh What are your thoughts for areas that your forecast for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I will admit the ECMWF and GFS are both very possible outcomes. It will be interesting to see what happens. Little question Whatcom County will score nicely. They totally deserve it. I am going all in for Whatcom County at this point. Our best hope is for a blend of the two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Our best hope is for a blend of the two. It's so frustrating that the Euro didn't move toward the GFS at all. At the same time the 12z WRF was quite a bit colder than the 0z. Weird. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 12Z Euro stays consistent closer to the Canadian solution. No surprise there. GFS continues to be off its rocker this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Our best hope is for a blend of the two. Rooting for the Canadian are we? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 God forbid the GFS actually be the correct model on this one, just because the others look different doesn't mean . A broken clock is right twice a day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Both the GFS and Euro show a decent snow event down here. The Euro gets close to something interesting later on in the run too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 God forbid the GFS actually be the correct model on this one, just because the others look different doesn't mean s**t. A broken clock is right twice a day. It does mean something if two major models show similar solutions and have both had a better track record recently; otherwise, meteorologists would roll a die with every storm to decide which model to base their forecasts on. Trends, patterns, initializations, sampling, etc all are variables that you have to consider. Scientific reasoning isn't played like a game of Yahtzee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 It does mean something if two major models show similar solutions and have both had a better track record recently; otherwise, meteorologists would roll a dice with every storm to decide which model to base their forecasts on. Trends, patterns, initializations, sampling, etc all are variables that you have to consider. Scientific reasoning isn't played like a game of Yahtzee.If anything, the Euro and GEM have actually trended towards the GFS, albeit not much at all, but they have. The GFS has not wavered at all, I call that a trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 God forbid the GFS actually be the correct model on this one, just because the others look different doesn't mean s**t. A broken clock is right twice a day. This is true. And it could certainly happen this time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 If anything, the Euro and GEM have actually trended towards the GFS, albeit not much at all, but they have. The GFS has not wavered at all, I call that a trend. No. The GEM has been extremely consistent with this event with its track. The Euro has trended toward the GEM, not the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 No. The GEM has been extremely consistent with this event with its track. The Euro has trended toward the GEM, not the GFS.Yep canadian likes the canadian. Several people the last couple days have said the EURO trended slightly toward the GFS, not so much about the GEM, except you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Well one thing is for sure. All this nail biting bickering and cheering wont make a difference. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hailstop Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 What are your thoughts for areas that your forecast for. Unfortunately, can't really say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hailstop Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I will say though that anyone expressing high confidence in any scenario is fooling themselves. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I will say though that anyone expressing high confidence in any scenario is fooling themselves.Perfectly said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yep canadian likes the canadian. Several people the last couple days have said the EURO trended slightly toward the GFS, not so much about the GEM, except you. I don't care what several people have said. Look at the models yourself. You can go back and view past runs, too. People don't seem to talk about the Canadian much in here, that doesn't mean it hasn't been consistent. It is clear the the Euro has trended toward the GEM. It's not ambiguous: it is what it is. The GFS is on its own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 21, 2014 Report Share Posted February 21, 2014 I will say though that anyone expressing high confidence in any scenario is fooling themselves. Absolutely. This is very borderline right now and any shift in track could have very large implications. I do think that anyone in the Seattle area expecting 5"+ is fooling themselves, though. I put confidence in my current forecast at barely 60% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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