MossMan Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south: Vancouver: 8-10"Bellingham: 10-12"Arlington: 12-14"Everett: 3-5"North Seattle: 2"South Seattle: 0.5"WOW! Go Canadian! Snowing the hardest all morning now! Wish we could actually post pics here 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Strongly disagree. The 4km is much better at showing detail... the 12km version is low resolution.Yes, but sometimes it has terrain/temperature problems. The 4km shows precipitation relatively constant over the entire area, but the water has snow over it and the land does not. I can't imagine places west of me like Anacortes getting 4" of snow while there is none here. That would be almost unprecedented. Also the models have been shifting so much I thing the 12km gives a better general idea of what places might get snow and how much. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south: Vancouver: 8-10"Bellingham: 10-12"Arlington: 12-14"Everett: 3-5"North Seattle: 2"South Seattle: 0.5"Do you have any images? Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 I was really hoping that snowfall intensity would be better here. It's basically been a light flurry all morning Slowly accumulating on grassy/wood surfaces. Maybe 1"..maybe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 The latest NWS discussion is pretty depressing to read for most places. It looks like they have taken the WRF at face value and based much of their forecast on that. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=SEW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Yes, but sometimes it has terrain/temperature problems. The 4km shows precipitation relatively constant over the entire area, but the water has snow over it and the land does not. I can't imagine places west of me like Anacortes getting 4" of snow while there is none here. That would be almost unprecedented. Also the models have been shifting so much I thing the 12km gives a better general idea of what places might get snow and how much. 4km is almost always better than the lower resolution 12km. The reason for the snow farther west could be more direct access to outflow . Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south: Vancouver: 8-10"Bellingham: 10-12"Arlington: 12-14"Everett: 3-5"North Seattle: 2"South Seattle: 0.5"8-10" you think? Is tmrw in Vancouver looking ok? Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Total snow from 4 p.m. today through Monday afternoon: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.60.0000.gif Probably still overstated though... remember the 00Z run will probably also back off again since that is whats been happening lately. For reference... here is the same period from the 00Z run last night: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022200/images_d3/ww_snow48.72.0000.gifDoesn't surprise me at all that you praise the Euro surface maps and claim they're the most accurate, but then post the WRF when it shows most people getting screwed. Typical Tim. I swear you live to disappoint, which in return, brings you happiness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south: Vancouver: 8-10"Bellingham: 10-12"Arlington: 12-14"Everett: 3-5"North Seattle: 2"South Seattle: 0.5" Trending to the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 My dad just called to report wet snow falling on Bainbridge at about 300 feet elevation. 32 here with continued light snow but it's too light to really accumulate at all. Still just a trace on cars and grass. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Seeimg some snow here in bothell, more of a widtry mix or snow/rain 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Doesn't surprise me at all that you praise the Euro surface maps and claim they're the most accurate, but then post the WRF when it shows most people getting screwed. Typical Tim. I swear you live to disappoint, which in return, brings you happiness.Yep the one downfall of Tim. Notice he rarely posts images when they are looking great for puget sound. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 not sticking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Trending to the GFS. The GEM has not trended toward the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 8-10" you think? Is tmrw in Vancouver looking ok? I don't know. It's so borderline with this spread. The GFS is clearly out to lunch. It shows < 3-4" for everybody. Most people see nothing. The GEM shifts the sound bullseye between Arlington & Bellingham. Amounts are reduced by a few inches from the previous run. I don't have access to the Euro maps at the moment, should be out soon though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 GFS is overdoing temperatures for the north sound if you ask me. With snowfall on the ground and the lack of onshore flow, it's going to be difficult to raise temperatures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Doesn't surprise me at all that you praise the Euro surface maps and claim they're the most accurate, but then post the WRF when it shows most people getting screwed. Typical Tim. I swear you live to disappoint, which in return, brings you happiness. The point was that the WRF is coming around to the ECMWF. And I show snowy maps all the time. In fact... I posted snowy WRF maps the last 2 days! I just post what the models show. Good or bad. When I show good... everyone loves it. When I show bad... then everyone kills the messenger. Typical crap on here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 12z Euro still gives BLI 1.2" of QPF in the next 48 hours and 8" of snow. Holding steady and totally different from the GFS and NAM. Pretty much snowless South of Everett though at face value. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 8-10" you think? Is tmrw in Vancouver looking ok? I would be more concerned if you live near the water. Areas like South Delta, YVR/Richmond, and downtown will probably see less than Burnaby/New Westminster/Surrey. Right now I would say, by Monday morning, 4-6" for areas near the water and 7-9" for higher terrain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 snow lighly sttickig on grass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 My dad just called to report wet snow falling on Bainbridge at about 300 feet elevation. 32 here with continued light snow but it's too light to really accumulate at all. Still just a trace on cars and grass. 32 there? Probably more likely 33-34. I drove around town a bit earlier and it wasn't sticking anywhere beyond a slushy trace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 As far as snow totals in Whatcom County, the Euro actually trended towards the GEM and increased the amounts... http://i62.tinypic.com/2hmo83t.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south: Vancouver: 8-10" Not at this rate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 As far as snow totals in Whatcom County, the Euro actually trended towards the GEM and increased the amounts... http://i62.tinypic.com/2hmo83t.pngHmm, as nice as that looks for us, I am not sure I buy that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 32 there? Probably more likely 33-34. I drove around town a bit earlier and it wasn't sticking anywhere beyond a slushy trace.The campus weather station is reading 32.2. Does seem a bit hard to believe because the snow really isn't sticking at all. Could be that the high sun angle is warming the ground to just above freezing though and the light snow can't overcome that. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Precipitation intensity has decreased quite a bit and temperature up to 34F. I just measured and about 1" out there. I hope the Euro is just a little too far north with the heavy snow. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Not at this rate! catnip, the main event is not today's system. Today should bring 2", overnight tonight 1-2", Sunday 3-4", Sunday night 1-2". Sunday is the juicier system, but also the most borderline in terms of temperatures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Trending to the GFS.new GFS is out to lunch. It's trending to 00z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 The point was that the WRF is coming around to the ECMWF. And I show snowy maps all the time. In fact... I posted snowy WRF maps the last 2 days! I just post what the models show. Good or bad. When I show good... everyone loves it. When I show bad... then everyone kills the messenger. Typical crap on here. It's not the typical crap, it's just how you deliver it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Love it, eating breakfast and watching the snow fall. All is white outside making the interior of the house nice and bright. Still snowing moderately. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 As far as snow totals in Whatcom County, the Euro actually trended towards the GEM and increased the amounts... Wow. That is huge! This is at least the third or fourth time that the Euro has caved on a big system this winter in favour of the GEM's trend last minute. I've seen it happen all winter with the eastern systems. What does the Canadian output look like on WxBell? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 It's not the typical crap, it's just how you deliver it. Whatever. Silly sugar-coating required to make people feel better? It is what it is. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 I would be more concerned if you live near the water. Areas like South Delta, YVR/Richmond, and downtown will probably see less than Burnaby/New Westminster/Surrey. Right now I would say, by Monday morning, 4-6" for areas near the water and 7-9" for higher terrain.I'mNear the water but 4-6" I would be fine with, been lightly showing for 4 hours temp 0.5c nothing but a trace amounts on grass Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 My guess is the reason the WRF shows so little snow over Bellingham tomorrow is because the outflow is too strong on that run. In this case... that will probably be a good thing since the moisture will likely win out but dewpoints will be lower thanks to some outflow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wow. That is huge! This is at least the third or fourth time that the Euro has caved on a big system this winter in favour of the GEM's trend last minute. I've seen it happen all winter with the eastern systems. What does the Canadian output look like on WxBell? It's persistent, I'll say that. Hard to think it's possible given the vastly different GFS, especially considering it's within a very small time frame. Euro and GEM give most of Whatcom County 8-10", while the GFS... well, sucks http://i61.tinypic.com/xf6ctz.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wow. That is huge! This is at least the third or fourth time that the Euro has caved on a big system this winter in favour of the GEM's trend last minute. I've seen it happen all winter with the eastern systems. What does the Canadian output look like on WxBell? Here's the RGEM.. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/rgemsnow.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 My guess is the reason the WRF shows so little snow over Bellingham tomorrow is because the outflow is too strong on that run. In this case... that will probably be a good thing since the moisture will likely win out but dewpoints will be lower thanks to some outflow. This has been the issue with every GFS run: the outflow. It has a poor handle on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 i dont think snow can stick today.... maybe tommrow. I am heading up to everett today you think they will get sticking snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbotsford_wx Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 I just measured 1.1" up here. The temperature is already up to 33F, so it's going to be tough to get more accumulations; I doubt we see more than 2" total today. Environment Canada did a good job forecasting this even though they were a bit late to the party. I'm still pretty skeptical of the ECMWF for tomorrow, but I don't buy the GFS either. I would maybe split the difference... some outflow but not enough to keep us too dry for snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 22, 2014 Report Share Posted February 22, 2014 Here's the RGEM.. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/rgemsnow.png These links are you friend.... Canadianhttp://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/ycmc_region.php Eurohttp://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yecmwf_region.php GFShttp://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/ygfs_region.php Under "CONUS METRO N-Z" on the right side, chose Seattle. Then chose "Total Snowfall" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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