TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z is a touch colderPortland 850mb -15c, 510 thickness. Pretty impressive. Bottoms out at 510 at SEA as well... and there is a reload at the end of the run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 SEA dropped to 38 in the last hour. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looking at radar trends a solid dusting is very possible at my place this evening. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 SEA dropped to 38 in the last hour. Brutal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Brutal Interesting to see a drop in mid-afternoon at least. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Interesting to see a drop in mid-afternoon at least.I agree with the sun angle Tim, But you must admit sometimes it's amazing what this Yukon air can do around here. To be honest I am surprised it is this cold today. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Interesting to see a drop in mid-afternoon at least.It's no 30F - 35F though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's no 30F - 35F though That will be Wednesday afternoon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Does anybody know why the operational GFS continues to be the warmest member of the ensembles? Is it because it has higher resolution or is it really having problems forecasting this cold spell. It is still 2-2.5 degrees warmer than the ensemble mean even just two days out. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Getting cold in eastern Wa, already some single digits in the mountains. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_Snakes Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like a little convergence E of Shelton? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Low of 25.1F this morning and it looks like the high will be slightly below 40F. Looks like teens might be possible tonight and possibly even single digits on Thursday morning as per the Euro on Wundermap. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 850mb temps are at -9C currently while it is -4C at 925mb. Still a ways to go before it gets cold. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 850mb temps are at -9C currently while it is -4C at 925mb. Still a ways to go before it gets cold. 850mb temp drops another 6 degrees or so. A high of 41 at SEA will become 33 or 34 on Wednesday. Initially overnight lows will kept up by wind and general mixing. But later in the week it will become much more favorable for radiational cooling. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 The sun is out here and it is snowing very very lightly from a dark cloud overhead. Currently 36 and the High for today after a low of 26. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 The sun is out here and it is snowing very very lightly from a dark cloud overhead. Currently 36 and the High for today after a low of 26. Convective. Looks like an April sky that brings occasional showers and ice pellets. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 3, 2014 Report Share Posted February 3, 2014 Amazing how well the lower levels warm with a few sunbreaks in early February. Currently 46 at Salem. 34 at Silver FallsThere have been appreciable sunbreaks down here, and the high has only been 37 so far. 36 currently. I think the airmass is just warmer still down that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinook Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 just had an intense shower. mixed with hail, snowflakes and rain. left a nice coating (hail) on organic surfaces. 41f at my location near McMinnville. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I just read the afternoon Forecast Discussion by our friendly folks at the PDX NWS. Wow. Quite a read. It isn't often you ever see an AFD talk about gusts 75-90mph at Corbett, a Wind Advisory being mentioned for consideration for PDX probably east of I-205, and also they are considering the rare High Wind Warning for the western Gorge which I have been mentioning the possibility in my analysis past few days. That is indeed rare! Remember, criteria for easterly events in the Gorge to reach High Wind Warning criteria is when gusts reach or exceed 75mph. This is different than the more typical Warning for southerly winds which is for gusts 60mph or higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 There have been appreciable sunbreaks down here, and the high has only been 37 so far. 36 currently. I think the airmass is just warmer still down that way. Probably -5 or -6C at 850mb It did snow at my house overnight and this afternoon (And stick). Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Probably -5 or -6C at 850mb It did snow at my house overnight and this afternoon (And stick). I thought you would be in a favorable location with this flow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Does anybody know why the operational GFS continues to be the warmest member of the ensembles? Is it because it has higher resolution or is it really having problems forecasting this cold spell. It is still 2-2.5 degrees warmer than the ensemble mean even just two days out. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png The ensembles are skewed versions of the operational. At this range, they're not very useful. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 The sun is out here and it is snowing very very lightly from a dark cloud overhead. Currently 36 and the High for today after a low of 26.I see the clouds off to my east, wishing that would build into something and head west. I thought Dec 2009 was very much a rarity with dry onsets of arctic air masses...until this winter happened. What happened to to the good old days of...well all the other arctic blasts that I remember that always came in with quite a bit of snow and exited with quite a bit as well. I even scored many inches with the onset of the Dec 1998 blast that was supposed to be mostly dry. The best thing in my cold weather world is having snow on the ground starting today for example that would not melt all week...which used to always happen. Maybe I have just been spoiled in my location. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I see the clouds off to my east, wishing that would build into something and head west. I thought Dec 2009 was very much a rarity with dry onsets of arctic air masses...until this winter happened. What happened to to the good old days of...well all the other arctic blasts that I remember that always came in with quite a bit of snow and exited with quite a bit as well. I even scored many inches with the onset of the Dec 1998 blast that was supposed to be mostly dry. The best thing in my cold weather world is having snow on the ground starting today for example that would not melt all week...which used to always happen. Maybe I have just been spoiled in my location.I don't know if there is such a thing as a "snowbow" but all of the conditions were here a few minutes ago with a light to moderate flurry in direct sunshine highlighting the foothill just to our east through the snow shower. No snowbow though. I guess ice crystals don't refract the sunlight in the same way as water does because it surely would have been a rainbow had it been raining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 The ensembles are skewed versions of the operational. At this range, they're not very useful.The Euro and Canadian are forecasting temps similar to the GFS ensembles. The GFS operational is a warm outlier among all models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyC Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 It looks like we enter a very favorable pattern for mountain snow in week 2. Too bad it only took until the middle of February for one to develop. But better late than never. This latest pattern is very good for the Portland area (at least recording snow/ice). Banked arctic air in Eastern WA/OR...lower pressure offshore...a bulk of the moisture remaining in Oregon. I could see Portland getting 3 - 6 inches of snow...then ice, whereas Seattle gets an inch or two with a quick transition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 It looks like we enter a very favorable pattern for mountain snow in week 2. Too bad it only took until the middle of February for one to develop. But better late than never. This latest pattern is very good for the Portland area (at least recording snow/ice). Banked arctic air in Eastern WA/OR...lower pressure offshore...a bulk of the moisture remaining in Oregon. I could see Portland getting 3 - 6 inches of snow...then ice, whereas Seattle gets an inch or two with a quick transition. Things can change quite a bit in 5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is the winds for Sunday 4pm according to the 12z GFS. It still shows an east wind for PDX, strongest east side and west end of the gorge. There is not enough southerly winds to push out the cold air. This does not look like an easy transition to rain. http://oi58.tinypic.com/5cinv6.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is the winds for Sunday 4pm according to the 12z GFS. It still shows an east wind for PDX, strongest east side and west end of the gorge. There is not enough southerly winds to push out the cold air. This does not look like an easy transition to rain. http://oi58.tinypic.com/5cinv6.jpgCan you post that image for the Puget sound. looks like se winds and that would favor some areas for us as well. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Offshore flow is starting up in Portland. Hooray! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Offshore flow is starting up in Portland. Hooray!Yup. Just a touch over -2mb now TTD-DLS. Probably get towards -12mb. Fun s**t Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can you post that image for the Puget sound. looks like se winds and that would favor some areas for us as well. Sure, it looks like Northern and Eastern parts of Puget sound still see offshore winds. http://oi57.tinypic.com/29n8bbt.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sure, it looks like Northern and Eastern parts of Puget sound still see offshore winds. http://oi57.tinypic.com/29n8bbt.jpgAre these surface winds? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Probably -5 or -6C at 850mb It did snow at my house overnight and this afternoon (And stick). Not really. Any flow with any kind of NW component is death at my location. Straight west and especially SW flow are best like in January 2012. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 A fresh dusting of snow here. Snowing hard just outside of Silverton at about 1000', looked like about 1/2" on the ground there. Pretty nasty accident on the curves on the Silver Falls highway with a detour set up around it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Are these surface winds? Yeah surface. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hope you people "down south" (as we call it ) are enjoying the Superb-owl win and the cold weather! Seems like luck is in Seattles favor... If you get an overrunning event on top of all that I can't think of a better week for you guys. I have a feeling that once we do get precip here that this will be the last time Juneau gets to see a cloudless day for at least a month or two. We'll see! Feels like when we get an interior based high pressure system it's a 50/50 chance for something epic. Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 32F here Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Rod Hill in Portland forecasting 6+" and ice, he explains the classic set-up well. http://www.kgw.com/community/blogs/weather/Classic-Portland-snow-storm-may-set-up-243278331.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50shadesofvan Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREF's are very aggressive in the temperature department, in case you want to have a look. A couple single digit LOWS possible for PDX. Maybe squeak out a 9? EDIT: lows. Definitely, Definitely lows. Portland ≠ Mars Quote 50 Shades of Van: A weather blog dedicated to providing the public with easily accessible and downright interesting weather information for Vancouver, BC and the Pacific Northwest Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/10/23/chaos-in-the-pacific-storm-parade-route-unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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