February 2014 in the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

I was actually surprised to see a light dusting of snow on my car this morning. It was very light but at least it was something I did not expect.

[TT-SEA]

I was actually surprised to see a light dusting of snow on my car this morning. It was very light but at least it was something I did not expect.

 

 

Yep... the insanely reliable ECMWF has showed some light snow around this morning for about 6 days now.    

 

GFS and MM5 were dry and clear.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Nice to see snow showers increasing a little in my neck of the woods! The odd thing is the are moving toward me from the south west heading NE. Very cool!

[GobBluth]

Early look ahead to March on the CFS says near normal temps and precip.

 

I saw the EURO weeklies return the west coast ridge.

GFS has shown strong hints of this for several days now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even a few flurries in the Silverton and Salem areas on my way to work this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

Radar looks interesting to the south and east of Seattle... but there are echoes right over my location and there is nothing happening so the dry air mass is probably resulting in most of it being virga.     Still looks like its expanding though.

[Gradient Keeper]

IR Loop show a very weak low west of Seattle.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+12

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z looks to take much longer to warm up over the weekend and keeps offshore flow going longer.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wow, the 6Z is interesting: 500mb heights in this region on Thursday/Friday are a full 10dm lower than shown to be yesterday, 850mb temperatures are slightly colder, and the "overruning" low approaches from further south on Saturday bringing moisture ashore faster and with greater intensity. Moreover, surface/near surface winds actually shift back to the NE after shortly after the initial front passes due to the lingering offshore surface low. Nice finally having something to track again.

[TT-SEA]

12z looks to take much longer to warm up over the weekend and keeps offshore flow going longer.

 

 

I like it.   

[Jesse]

12z looks to take much longer to warm up over the weekend and keeps offshore flow going longer.

Does it continue the trend of watering down the initial blast?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Does it continue the trend of watering down the initial blast?

 

Yes

[TT-SEA]

Radar still looks interesting... but the cloud cover is breaking up here now even with echoes over me.    Lots of blue sky now.   I would imagine that is not a good sign for snow.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

Showers are increasing but mainly staying south and east. Amazing what a weak little low can do.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Does it continue the trend of watering down the initial blast?

Yes but also the low out in the ocean just sits out there and drifts south. This is getting very close to something good.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I like it.   

looking very interesting for sure. Tons of potential.

[Gradient Keeper]

Does it continue the trend of watering down the initial blast?

Same as 00z, but as mentioned it's weird The Dalles is still -19c to -20c 850mb.... PDX will be frigid is that holds.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Notice that PDX had a west wind as of 8am.

[Tyler Mode]

Ya pressure gradient of .5 mb from PDX to TTD.  Looks like the cold/dry air is making it to Yakima, The Dalles, Pendleton, so the east wind will be ramping up shortly.

 

 

Notice that PDX had a west wind as of 8am.

[Tyler Mode]

I can't remember the last time a High Wind Wach was issued in the gorge.  Maybe 2009?

 

High Wind Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR843 AM PST TUE FEB 4 2014ORZ015-WAZ045-050045-/O.NEW.KPQR.HW.A.0002.140205T0600Z-140207T0600Z/WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-843 AM PST TUE FEB 4 2014...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAYEVENING FOR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAYEVENING.* WINDS: 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 75 MPH.* TIMING: 10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY.* TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS: 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM THURSDAY.* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: CORBETT...ROOSTER ROCK STATE PARK...CAPE  HORN...AND CROWN POINT STATE PARK.* GENERAL IMPACTS: POWER OUTAGES LIKELY IN AND AROUND CORBETT.

[Gradient Keeper]

 

I can't remember the last time a High Wind Wach was issued in the gorge.  Maybe 2009?

 

High Wind Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR843 AM PST TUE FEB 4 2014ORZ015-WAZ045-050045-/O.NEW.KPQR.HW.A.0002.140205T0600Z-140207T0600Z/WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-843 AM PST TUE FEB 4 2014...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAYEVENING FOR THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAYEVENING.* WINDS: 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 75 MPH.* TIMING: 10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY.* TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS: 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM THURSDAY.* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: CORBETT...ROOSTER ROCK STATE PARK...CAPE  HORN...AND CROWN POINT STATE PARK.* GENERAL IMPACTS: POWER OUTAGES LIKELY IN AND AROUND CORBETT.

I called it! Wow very rare.... It has been since... 2005? maybe...

[Gradient Keeper]

Ya pressure gradient of .5 mb from PDX to TTD.  Looks like the cold/dry air is making it to Yakima, The Dalles, Pendleton, so the east wind will be ramping up shortly.

PDX-YKM ramping up now too.

[chinook]

I called it! Wow very rare.... It has been since... 2005? maybe...

 

question:  is this due to bitter cold conditions yielding very low wind chills? 

[TT-SEA]

A few flurries here with the sun also peaking through.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I called it! Wow very rare.... It has been since... 2005? maybe...

Good job dude! yes you did call it. Awesome having so many great weather minds on here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A few flurries here with the sun also peaking through.

40 degrees is just around the bend!!

[Snow]

I am not even paying attention to the GFS until 2 days out. It's warm bias in the upper troposphere is showing and it's having it's monthly major fail right now. It might take until tonights 00z run for the GFS to get it's act together.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like the 12z is heading in a great direction in the long range for more snow chances and tons of mountain snow!

[Gradient Keeper]

Good job dude! yes you did call it. Awesome having so many great weather minds on here.

Well neato I can forecast east wind, but apparently not Snow/ZR   

 

question:  is this due to bitter cold conditions yielding very low wind chills? 

It's due to High Winds gusts 75mph +. There will be very low wind chills too yep. Maybe a Wind Chill Warning before this event is over.

[Jesse]

GFS isn't budging with -20c over DLS. Even if the colder 850s don't make it over to Portland they will likely be just as frigid with outflow winds. Definitely going to be cold out here.

[Snow]

12z GEM is very cold Thursday afternoon.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_060.jpg

 

 

 

 

It is now agreeing with the ECMWF, moisture arrives early Saturday now for a major snowstorm from PDX.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_108.jpg

[Jesse]

It's been snowing lightly out here all morning. A dusting on cars and grassy surfaces so far. Currently 29f.

[Phil]

Am I the only one here almost ready for spring? This winter has zapped my energy levels big time.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS isn't budging with -20c over DLS. Even if the colder 850s don't make it over to Portland they will likely be just as frigid with outflow winds. Definitely going to be cold out here.

Yep, completely agreed. I would think it would tend to negate the "warming" over PDX with -11c to -12c.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z WRF shows another East Wind Storm perhaps even stronger than Tuesday night - Thursday. Saturday the gradient becomes even tigher and may yield new a High Warning Warning/Advisory.

Saturday 7:00 AM

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014020412/images_d2/slp.99.0000.gif

 

Saturday 1:00 PM. Very extreme gradient

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014020412/images_d2/slp.105.0000.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ramping up again. The offshore flow could pile it up around hood canal. I don't agree with the big bald spot east of Tacoma though.

[TT-SEA]

Ramping up again. The offshore flow could pile it up around hood canal. I don't agree with the big bald spot east of Tacoma though.

 

Huge hole right over my area.  

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM was pretty good for PDX. 850mb -15c to -16c

Cold, then what do we have here? A nice 1000mb low off southern Oregon Coast with strong, very cold easterly wind through the Gorge. Sure looks like a Snow/Ice storm to me.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_090_0000.gif

[Snow]

12z GEM Saturday 4am.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Upper Air Analysis 
as of 9:30 AM
3 plots. Portland, The Dalles, Spokane 

925mb: PDX -4.9c, DLS -9c, GEG -14.2c
850mb: PDX -8.9c, DLS -12.5c, GEG -17c