Guest Winterdog Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 MM5 is out to lunch.With Steve Pool I suspect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 With Steve Pool I suspect.Steve pool is crazy. I wish they would fire him. He's also ugly imo. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 hey at least winter isnt over yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Steve pool is crazy. I wish they would fire him. He's also ugly imo.Seriously? Come on man . . . Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 maybe mm5 is just being conservative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 maybe mm5 is just being conservative.It does not even show precip of any kind Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Radar is just weird to say the least and with that nice little vort max earlier this am and today ( albeit weak ) makes me wonder if the models just cant handle the progression of the pattern right now. Clouds are likely not going to dissipate much tonight and wind is decreasing at least here at my place so I think we may just have to wait and see what happens. Showers moving west through the strait Showers in the south sound moving SW to NE And NOW precip streaming into the coast from the NW WTF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'd buy that for a dollar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Radar is just weird to say the least and with that nice little vort max earlier this am and today ( albeit weak ) makes me wonder if the models just cant handle the progression of the pattern right now. Clouds are likely not going to dissipate much tonight and wind is decreasing at least here at my place so I think we may just have to wait and see what happens. Showers moving west through the strait, showers Showers in the south sound moving SW to NE And NOW precip streaming into the coast from the NW WTF? Seriously. It's almost laughable that all meteos had us clear and sunny all week. Now we get some surprise snow showers on Tuesday and an impending snowstorm for the Willamette valley on Thursday? I would say the models are 100% confused and we are much better off using the GOLU model at this point. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Radar is just weird to say the least and with that nice little vort max earlier this am and today ( albeit weak ) makes me wonder if the models just cant handle the progression of the pattern right now. Clouds are likely not going to dissipate much tonight and wind is decreasing at least here at my place so I think we may just have to wait and see what happens. Showers moving west through the strait, showers Showers in the south sound moving SW to NE And NOW precip streaming into the coast from the NW WTF?I think the clouds are going to be with us all night long up here and hold the temps up considerably. It is warmer here now than it has been the last two nights at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 At this point I have no idea what is going on! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Euro weeklies are definitely looking good for round 2 later this month aren't they. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think the clouds are going to be with us all night long up here and hold the temps up considerably. It is warmer here now than it has been the last two nights at this time. Ya, but they should be broken up before daybreak and will surely bottom out for a couple hours. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 OOZ GFS Ensembles: Huge variation for temps and precip, it's even guessing at this point. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Seriously. It's almost laughable that all meteos had us clear and sunny all week. Now we get some surprise snow showers on Tuesday and an impending snowstorm for the Willamette valley on Thursday? I would say the models are 100% confused and we are much better off using the GOLU model at this point. The ECMWF showed clouds and very light precip today for about the last 5 days. Jim and I were talking about it late last week even. Nobody should be surprised if they looked at the ECMWF maps even once in that time. The clouds will clear tonight and the next 3 days will be mostly sunny up here. The ECMWF shows it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 The modelling of this Arctic blast has changed a lot over the last few days, hard to believe it won't change a lot over the next few days as well. Looking at the satellite over the Pacific right now there are some pretty big factors that are going to throw uncertainty into the Friday-Monday period. There's a stream of moisture working its way up from Hawaii from the SW colliding with increasing offshore flow and Arctic air to its north. Favourable conditions for cyclogenesis? This weekend could catch a lot of people outside the weather community by complete surprise. The evolution of this pattern has been bizarre, even for "backdoor" events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Snow for Thursday at PDX on the OOZ ECMWF! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks like it has begun to flurry again. The radar is pretty odd. I have echoes moving toward me from the SW and the NW. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Do that. Just once. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pscz1140 Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 The modelling of this Arctic blast has changed a lot over the last few days, hard to believe it won't change a lot over the next few days as well. Looking at the satellite over the Pacific right now there are some pretty big factors that are going to throw uncertainty into the Friday-Monday period. There's a stream of moisture working its way up from Hawaii from the SW colliding with increasing offshore flow and Arctic air to its north. Favourable conditions for cyclogenesis? This weekend could catch a lot of people outside the weather community by complete surprise. The evolution of this pattern has been bizarre, even for "backdoor" events. Totally agree. The temperature dip on the essembles a few days from now is also a feature which wasn't there before. Cray cray. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 00z EURO Different handling of the trough digs it much further west than previous runs. Note the ridge really backs offshore. Could be very snowy PDX/Willamette Valley THU-FRI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 The ECMWF showed clouds and very light precip today for about the last 5 days. Jim and I were talking about it late last week even. Nobody should be surprised if they looked at the ECMWF maps even once in that time. The clouds will clear tonight and the next 3 days will be mostly sunny up here. The ECMWF shows it. If the next 3 days are sunny I will eat my hat, not gonna happen. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro 00z has 5.9″ snow in EUG, 4.8 in Corvallis, 4.5 SLE, 2.5 PDX 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 00z EURO Different handling of the trough digs it much further west than previous runs. Note the ridge really backs offshore. [/size]Could be very snowy PDX/Willamette Valley THU-FRI Also looks like a good chance of a reload developing by day 7. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro 00z has 5.9″ snow in EUG, 4.8 in Corvallis, 4.5 SLE, 2.5 PDXThroughout the run of just through Friday? Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Throughout the run of just through Friday?Through 96h Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro 00z has 5.9″ snow in EUG, 4.8 in Corvallis, 4.5 SLE, 2.5 PDX That's good, the ECMWF tends to underestimate the amount of moisture. Add 1 to 2 inches to these totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Euro weeklies are definitely looking good for round 2 later this month aren't they.Could someone post the weeklies. I don't know why but I have been feeling a late February event. I think We go wet and zonal for awhile before the ridge rebuilds later in the month. Hopefully far enough off shore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 It is always amazing how crazy the models go when we get some arctic air in here. They never seem to warm it up correctly or give the correct precipitation or really get anything right. It is times like these that some of our least dependable models (like the NAM in 2012) lead the way. Whatever happens I just want some snow. The WRF is really depressing up here and completely different than the 12z so I hope it crashes and gets buried under a few feet of snow. PDX deserves snow after what has happened to them the last few years, but when it is getting buried under a foot of snow I really hope the weather gods can send a few inches up here. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 It is always amazing how crazy the models go when we get some arctic air in here. They never seem to warm it up correctly or give the correct precipitation or really get anything right. It is times like these that some of our least dependable models (like the NAM in 2012) lead the way. Whatever happens I just want some snow. The WRF is really depressing up here and completely different than the 12z so I hope it crashes and gets buried under a few feet of snow. PDX deserves snow after what has happened to them the last few years, but when it is getting buried under a foot of snow I really hope the weather gods can send a few inches up here. So what you're saying is you want it to snow? Weird. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 It is always amazing how crazy the models go when we get some arctic air in here. They never seem to warm it up correctly or give the correct precipitation or really get anything right. It is times like these that some of our least dependable models (like the NAM in 2012) lead the way. Whatever happens I just want some snow. The WRF is really depressing up here and completely different than the 12z so I hope it crashes and gets buried under a few feet of snow. PDX deserves snow after what has happened to them the last few years, but when it is getting buried under a foot of snow I really hope the weather gods can send a few inches up here.The problem is the models have limited experience with Arctic outbreaks in the PNW. They happen--but it's not like a summer day where there's a lot of experience to draw from. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 WRF is a mesoscale model, you can't trust it when it shifts the whole storm by 200 miles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Steve pool is crazy. I wish they would fire him. He's also ugly imo. He is much better looking than Rich Marriot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 So no snow this weekend up here.... Crazy.. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro is totally dry North of Olympia through Saturday evening . . . http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014020500/nw/ecmwf_24_precip_nw_18.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 The problem is the models have limited experience with Arctic outbreaks in the PNW. They happen--but it's not like a summer day where there's a lot of experience to draw from. It has nothing to do with the limited experience. Arctic outbreaks in this part of the country are heavily influenced by terrain and other mesoscale features. They're tough to model, and for the most part they do fairly well. In this case, the pattern is about as convoluted as possible when it comes to Arctic set ups. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro is totally dry North of Olympia through Saturday evening . . . http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014020500/nw/ecmwf_24_precip_nw_18.png I will be mad if we just moderate slowly out of this cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Report Share Posted February 5, 2014 So what you're saying is you want it to snow? Weird.I know. Absolutely crazy. I will gladly collect snow from those people who can't appreciate snow after Christmas though. Please mail it to Mount Vernon, WA when you get it and I am sure I will find it. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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