August 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

With this being the word of the day, let's all remember a 90s one hit wonder from Seattle.

 

One of the best songs about self gratification of all time.

[Deweydog]

PDX may have another surprise 90 in the barrel today. They are currently on pace with yesterday.

 

At least that would put them at an even number.

88.

 

28, 29, 30 will have to wait for October.

[Abbotsford_wx]

No, but judging by your comments I would guess you think this troughy period will only be a blip on the radar as opposed to a meaningful change.

 

Unless the November 2014 comparison was only a trolling attempt. It's so hard to tell these days!

 

The troughing we experienced at the beginning of August had many people calling for a much different month than July, but that didn't exactly pan out. So I'd say it's a little premature to be calling this a major shift.

 

I'm sure we'll still see plenty of ridging in September and October. We usually do, even if not anomalously so like the last couple of years.

[Jesse]

The troughing we experienced at the beginning of August had many people calling for a much different month than July, but that didn't exactly pan out. So I'd say it's a little premature to be calling this a major shift.

 

I'm sure we'll still see plenty of ridging in September and October. We usually do, even if not anomalously so like the last couple of years.

Nobody cares what Canadians think.

[stuffradio]

Nobody cares what Canadians think.

Tim does.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RPM model now showing almost no rain for the Willamette Valley through the weekend. 

[Jesse]

RPM model now showing almost no rain for the Willamette Valley through the weekend.

Maybe your tears will suffice.

[TT-SEA]

RPM model now showing almost no rain for the Willamette Valley through the weekend. 

 

No doubt another 2 inches in my area this weekend... added to the 3 inches in the last month.   

 

And the 80 inches coming over the next 9 months.   It rains a lot here.   

[Deweydog]

Underperformance in progress at PDX!

[stuffradio]

No doubt another 2 inches in my area this weekend... added to the 3 inches in the last month.   

 

And the 80 inches coming over the next 9 months.   It rains a lot here.   

No, I thought my area was 80 inches. You're not allowed to get the same as me!

[TT-SEA]

No, I thought my area was 80 inches. You're not allowed to get the same as me!

 

 

Well I do.

[Jesse]

Underperformance in progress at PDX!

Nice dress rehearsal for precip underperformance this weekend!

[Deweydog]

Nice dress rehearsal for precip underperformance this weekend!

If the models are right it will just be performance.

[Jesse]

If the models are right it will just be performance.

Maybe the 2015 wildfire season still has a fighting chance.

[Deweydog]

Maybe the 2015 wildfire season still has a fighting chance.

I read today they're considering charging Mother Nature criminally in the death of the firefighters. The Okanogan County Prosecutor is a real pitbull.

[Jesse]

I read today they're considering charging Mother Nature criminally in the death of the firefighters. The Okanogan County Prosecutor is a real pitbull.

[Deweydog]

Accountability.

[stuffradio]

There was an earthquake in Abbotsford 30ish minutes ago.

[Front Ranger]

There was an earthquake in Abbotsford 30ish minutes ago.

 

Hey. This isn't a seismology forum.

 

It's a weather/gardening/wildfire/sports/law/aspiring comedians/personal therapy/anti-Canadian forum.

[GHweatherChris]

The rain has started here, even though radar says nope. A good shower just soaked everything.

 

Edit: no rain now, must have just been a preview.

[Front Ranger]

Look at that sucker bearing down on the PNW early next week. Been awhile since we've seen those 540 heights so close.

 

 

 

 

I'll be in OR in a couple weeks, maybe everything will have greened up a little by then.

[Deweydog]

Look at that sucker bearing down on the PNW early next week. Been awhile since we've seen those 540 heights so close.

 

gfs_namer_108_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

I'll be in OR in a couple weeks, maybe everything will have greened up a little by then.

Sub-540dm thicknesses into WA on this run. Not too bad for early September.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was looking at some pictures of my pasture from mid-September 2013, everything was so green. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Won't be very good colors in the foothills this fall, at least not from the vine maples, most of them are dead, or their leaves are. #90daysnorain.

[TT-SEA]

Won't be very good colors in the foothills this fall, at least not from the vine maples, most of them are dead, or their leaves are. #90daysnorain.

Our maples look healthy and vibrant... should be a good fall up here depending on the timing of wind events.

[Abbotsford_wx]

The modeling looks different as well as the system coming in itself. A cold weather enthusiast could be safe to say that today was probably the last concurrent day of summery weather, and this system represents an expected seasonal pattern change.

 

Not disputing the pattern is different, but seasonal change tends to be more gradual.

 

As for today being the last summery day, that depends on your definition of "summery" -- if you mean 90's, then I agree. I'd say there a good chance we'll see another stretch of 80's, but even mid-to-upper 70's and sunshine qualifies as summery in the PNW.

[GHweatherChris]

Looks like winter will peak in the next 2 weeks. What a change. Looking forward to 2016.

[TT-SEA]

Meteorological fall starts on Tuesday.

[Kayla]

It's not everyday you see a 992mb low bearing down over the area in August with 60+ mph winds possible.

 

 

 

[Jesse]

Not disputing the pattern is different, but seasonal change tends to be more gradual.

 

As for today being the last summery day, that depends on your definition of "summery" -- if you mean 90's, then I agree. I'd say there a good chance we'll see another stretch of 80's, but even mid-to-upper 70's and sunshine qualifies as summery in the PNW.

You must be purposefully missing his point.

[Abbotsford_wx]

You must be purposefully missing his point.

 

No.

[Kayla]

This system is incredibly rare considering that the all-time high wind gust for PDX in August is only 39 mph. Getting excited to watch this thing develop now!

[Deweydog]

It's not everyday you see a 992mb low bearing down over the area in August with 60+ mph winds possible.

 

Screen Shot 2015-08-27 at 10.25.43 PM.png

 

Pretty rare stuff.  Still pretty skeptical (the operational still shows pretty much just an open wave), but if it does wrap up with some true cyclogenesis mixing will be really good even in the valley.  

[Kayla]

Pretty rare stuff.  Still pretty skeptical (the operational still shows pretty much just an open wave), but if it does wrap up with some true cyclogenesis mixing will be really good even in the valley.  

 

Agreed. I don't even think the models are picking up on the strong thermal gradient that we would have. Tough one to model considering the season.

[Deweydog]

Agreed. I don't even think the models are picking up on the strong thermal gradient that we would have. Tough one to model considering the season.

 

THIS is where people should be jumping on board the blob train.  Pretty unlikely that tropical energy has enough components left over at this point without it, even just at a mesoscale model level.  

[ShawniganLake]

Forecast model interpretation for the following weeks.....

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_08280328_aug27a.png

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_08280329_aug27b.png

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_08280331_aug27c.png

September is looking more and more like a warm month across eastern Canada with cooler and wetter conditions farther to the west. Upper ridging likely returns to the west coast with a drier weather.

[luminen]

Aw man...not more dry weather!

 

I'm looking forward to fall/winter here. September is my least favourite month in this climate. Except 2013 was pretty awesome in Eugene.

[ShawniganLake]

A warm rain starting to fall here now.  Still 71F.  Just remembered to cover up my patio chairs at the last minute, Crisis averted.  Also took the time to clean out the spider webs and unidentified gunk from my rain gauge earlier this evening.  Looks like it should get a nice work out over the next week. 

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=83762

[Jesse]

Forecast model interpretation for the following weeks.....

September is looking more and more like a warm month across eastern Canada with cooler and wetter conditions farther to the west. Upper ridging likely returns to the west coast with a drier weather.

Man, good thing that's cleared up. Think of all the hours I would have wasted looking at the models if you hadn't made this post!