snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 The 6z was certainly fun! The 12z looks like it might get there too. You can see in the early going how much further west the bulk of the positive height anoms are from the Western US / Pacific flat ridge. That makes it so much more energy bleeds back into the block approaching from the west as it evolves. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Interestingly the 6z EPS mean and control also show more energy bleeding back into the block as it approaches. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 There are good aspects to the 12z GFS in spite of it not looking as nice. A lot of positive height energy building over the Pacific. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: There are good aspects to the 12z GFS in spite of it not looking as nice. A lot of positive height energy building over the Pacific. Lol. You have been saying this for months. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 This might come as a shock to many…But it’s raining!! .23” so far on the day, 13.31” for the month. Think SNOW and COLD!!!!! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 If low pressure brings rain and high pressure causes fog, then what brings sunshine? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Oh the joys of model riding and emotional whiplash. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just based on the signs alone I think this has a shot at being the winter of the century so far. That feeling is a bit dampened by negative QBO / cold ENSO aspect, but we have overcome that for cold / blocky winters before. No doubt we have checked many of the boxes that lead up to some of the all time greats. Can't wait to see what happens. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Bastardi says no white Christmas for us... I'm not a huge fan of 1967, but it did have some goodies in parts of Dec and Jan. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: If low pressure brings rain and high pressure causes fog, then what brings sunshine? Northerly flow or strong offshore flow. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Bastardi says no white Christmas for us... We actually missed a white Christmas by only 3-4 days in 1967. That was a pretty nice pattern mid-month for the whole West. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Looking at 1967 it was one of the drier Novembers on record and the autumn was completely wrong vs this year. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: We actually missed a white Christmas by only 3-4 days in 1967. That was a pretty nice pattern mid-month for the whole West. Yeah....it wasn't too bad for the first half of the winter. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 The 12z isn't horrible over all. Lots of blocking and it gets pretty nippy. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 20 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: If low pressure brings rain and high pressure causes fog, then what brings sunshine? Troughing and mixing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The 12z isn't horrible over all. Lots of blocking and it gets pretty nippy. Yeah... it gets coolish towards the end. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Just based on the signs alone I think this has a shot at being the winter of the century so far. That feeling is a bit dampened by negative QBO / cold ENSO aspect, but we have overcome that for cold / blocky winters before. No doubt we have checked many of the boxes that lead up to some of the all time greats. Can't wait to see what happens. You’re never one to set your expectations too low. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Salem had a pretty big snow event in January 1968, February was a pretty epic torch. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 GEM so far 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Several cold members on the GEFS around December 5 now. That's new. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Salem had a pretty big snow event in January 1968, February was a pretty epic torch. Yeah....February was insanely warm. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: You’re never one to set your expectations too low. All I said was based on the observed weather we have been seeing. The technical side of things isn't as perfect. That makes me more curious than normal to see how it's going to play out. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 A much blockier theme is certainly emerging on today's model runs. With a significant Nina in progress I'll take my chances with a lot of blocking any day of the week. One trend I really like is a lot more positive height anoms off the West Coast early in the game now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 The GFS ensemble has some really cold members on this run. A big cold snap is back on the table for early December it would appear. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Does anyone know the best site to download daily and/or monthly climatological data for a station? I've been wandering around the government websites for a while and I'm struggling to find daily downloadable data organized by month. For example, if I wanted to look at daily highs/lows/precipitation for November of 1990 in Bellingham, what's the best website to find that data? 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 It’s coming. But it’s not coming in early December. Happy Black Friday! 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The GFS ensemble has some really cold members on this run. A big cold snap is back on the table for early December it would appear. Of course it is Mr. Snow_wizard. This is 2021, the #yearofextremes Anything is possible. Even Feetz of snow for everyone. Buckle up! It's going to be a wild winter!!!! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Does anyone know the best site to download daily and/or monthly climatological data for a station? I've been wandering around the government websites for a while and I'm struggling to find daily downloadable data organized by month. For example, if I wanted to look at daily highs/lows/precipitation for November of 1990 in Bellingham, what's the best website to find that data? This one works pretty well… https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: This one works pretty well… https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Not a shitepost and you’re not correcting someone else…must be feeling that Christmas spirit! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: This one works pretty well… https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Thanks, this is exactly what I've been looking for. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Not a shitepost and you’re not correcting someone else…must be feeling that Christmas spirit! Thanks, Jesse! 2 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: This one works pretty well… https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Bookmarking that one. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Thanks, Jesse! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Ah I knew the night shift run was too good to be true… 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Mild morning here…0.04” since midnight and 8.79” for the month. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Ah I knew the night shift run was too good to be true… At least gets nippy. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Lol looks like I missed a lot last night and this morning. Anyways…looks like a pretty mild day and dry for the majority of it but the rain will be back. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Ah I knew the night shift run was too good to be true… No love for the massive ensemble improvement?? 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Just based on the signs alone I think this has a shot at being the winter of the century so far. That feeling is a bit dampened by negative QBO / cold ENSO aspect, but we have overcome that for cold / blocky winters before. No doubt we have checked many of the boxes that lead up to some of the all time greats. Can't wait to see what happens. I don’t see how you can possibly say this. Could certainly be a decent winter but there should be a concrete reason to call for a “winter of the century” on November 26th, 1 1 1 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 There’s a better than bad chance we’ve already had our “winter of the century.” And barring a miracle of modern science, it’s the only fresh century any of us will see. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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